Hier ein erstes Forum für dieses vielversprechende Startup. Nach ihrem Börsengang Mitte des Jahres planen sie ab nächstem Jahr ein positives EBITDA auszuweisen. Was haltet ihr von diesem Unternehmen und den Q3 Zahlen, die am 10.11.15 rausgekommen sind?
Mogo (MOGO-TSX, Speculative Buy/$12 Target): Impressive progress under headline Q3 beat. Q3 results indicated positive movement on core business & new products/partnerships; major factors we suggested in Q3 preview on Nov 1st, while Mogo exits short term loans. Mogo has made an impressive revenue pivot to a more capital light business model in our ~18 months covering the stock. Short term loans were ~50% of Mogo?s revenue when we launched coverage in April 2017. This revenue line is now zero. Mogo has grown remaining top line well over 100% since then. While no specific announcements were made yesterday, we believe Mogo?s new product and potential partnership strategy appears to have expanded in scope since Q2 results in August. Specifically, the company?s product funnel appears to include possible wealth management products and cash back on pre-paid cards. Potential partners could include banks, insurance companies & credit unions. Potential announcements could be positive catalysts for the stock. These moves could expand Mogo?s reach as a mobile first, direct to consumer channel, increase customer engagement leading to higher subscription and services revenue growth. Our estimate revisions are minor and do not include new products, partnerships and channels (Android launch likely in 6-7 months). Finally, Mogo could self-finance the company?s loan/credit product and potentially securitize its loan book, accelerating the transition to a capital light revenue growth model. We value Mogo on a net core revenue basis (i.e. total revenue less loan fees and less funding interest): Mogo trades at ~1.6x 2019 core net sales vs. FinTech names at ~5.2x. Peer multiples appear to have gone up ~0.4x since our preview, while Mogo is unchanged. Our $12 target implies ~5x 2019 core net sales, roughly in-line with peers.
Mogo (MOGO-TSX, MOGO-NASDAQ, Speculative Buy/$12 Target): 2019 catalysts could reposition story. This week, Mogo reported Q4/19 results -- 75% y/y core revenue growth owing to better member monetization. We believe Mogo is in discussions with multiple potential partners. Positive partnerships could help Mogo monetize new and existing members in a more capital efficient manner. New products (e.g. cash back debit card, MogoWealth etc.) could help Mogo rekindle existing member relationships and also add new members to its platform. We believe positive news from these initiatives could come as early as Q2/19 based on our read of management body language. We believe that exiting 2019, Mogo could self fund a much larger portion of its loan/credit business via cash flow from subscription and services and potential MogoMoney partners. If Mogo gains sufficient partner traction, the company could essentially offer lending partners a ?marketplace? via a capital light model. Our discussions with management also suggest a high degree of confidence in rolling over Mogo?s credit facilities (done before) and also some debentures with 2020 maturities. Mogo?s valuation provides potential for gains as the company continues subscription and services revenue growth especially as investors seem to have an appetite for Canadian Fintech stories. Our discussions with investors suggest the recent LightSpeed (LSPD-TSX, Not Covered) IPO was massively oversubscribed. We estimate there could be unsatisfied Fintech investor demand for at least a few hundred million dollars, if not ~$500 mln, which could bode well for Mogo, especially if the company demonstrates partnership/new product traction. We value Mogo on a net core revenue basis (i.e. total revenue less loan fees and less funding interest, which the company has exited). On this basis, Mogo trades at ~1.4x 2020 core net sales vs. FinTech names at ~4.3x Sales. Our $12 target implies ~4x 2020 core net sales, roughly in-line with peers