Morgan Stanley upgrades Rosneft (ROSN.RS) to overweight from equalweight, with a 12-month target price of $10.50, thanks in part to events in the OAO Yukos (YUKO.RS) saga. Last week, a Moscow court authorized a $5.1B increase in Rosneft's claims on the Yukos credit register, raising Rosneft's confirmed total to $9.6B. "This sum represents the minimum Rosneft stands to collect, in cash or in kind, once proceeds are generated from the Yukos liquidation auctions," Morgan Stanley says. "As such, the market should regard the sum as a near-cash asset, reinforcing Rosneft's valuation." Rosneft +1.6% at $8.04. (GSW)
: Aton Upgrades Rosneft To Buy, Target $10.40
1456 GMT [Dow Jones] Aton upgrades Rosneft (ROSN.RS) to buy from hold with a year-end fair value estimate of $10.40, representing 23% upside from its current level. Analysts Steve Dashevsky, Dmitri Loukashov and Artyom Konchin see Rosneft snapping up a raft of Yukos (YUKO.RS) assets on the cheap, notably a 9.44% stake in itself held by Yukos, along with refineries and oil production in Samara, and up to $10 billion in cash from Yukos' ultimate liquidation. Shares -0.4% at $8.42. (GTS)
: Rosneft eyeing European oil refinery assets
RBC, 24.10.2006, Moscow 10:20:04.Yet another Russian company is getting ready to start acquiring assets in Europe. Rosneft President Sergei Bogdanchikov stated on Monday that the Russian oil company was in talks with a number of potential partners over the acquisition of stakes in Europe's oil refineries. Experts believe that the Russian oil giant is probably interested in Lithuania's stricken Mazeikiu Nafta, a stake in Serbia's Naftna Industrija Srbije, or Rotterdam's Europoort.
Rosneft is in talks to secure up to $24.5bn of financing from a pool of Western banks, Vedomosti reports. The company has declined to comment on the issue.
Rosneft is widely expected to participate in the upcoming bankruptcy auction for Yukos assets. Additional funding would give the company room to maneuver, and therefore such discussions would not surprise us. We note that the reported amount of financing sought is roughly in line with our estimated liquidation value of all of Yukos' key assets of $22bn (which is equal to the latest officially approved total creditor claims). This suggests that Rosneft is seeking financial ammunition that would allow it to potentially compete for all of the Yukos assets.
Our newly revised Rosneft recommendation was based in part on the assumption that the company would become the eventual owner of some of the key Yukos assets, and thus the news seems to be supportive of our assumption. Our recommendation for Rosneft shares is Buy, with an end-2007 target of $10.41.
Ölsektor: Rosneft und CNPC bauen Raffinerie und 300 Tankstellen in China
Die russische Ölfirma Rosneft und der chinesische Energiekonzern CNPC wollen gemeinsam eine Ölraffinerie mit einer Jahresleistung von zehn Millionen Tonnen sowie etwa 300 Tankstellen in China bauen.
Dies teilte Rosneft-Chef Sergej Bogdantschikow am Donnerstag am Rande des 3. Russisch-chinesischen Investitionsforums gegenüber Journalisten mit. Seinen Worten nach wird die Raffinerie sowohl russisches als auch chinesisches Erdöl verarbeiten. Als Standort komme ein Gebiet 200 Kilometer von der chinesischen Hauptstadt Peking entfernt in Frage. Mit den Bauarbeiten soll ein Joint Venture von Rosneft und CNPC beauftragt werden. [ RIA Novosti ]
Rosneft widened 8 percent Thursday to Friday on active buyout of stocks on LSE. The reasons could be expected increase in company?s value thanks to the YUKOS takeover, the equally expected addition to Morgan Stanley indices or the possible consolidation with Surgutneftegaz. Rosneft widened 8 percent in two final trading days of the past week, fueling capitalization to above $100 billion. The last deal on RTS was clinched at $9.3 per a stock, while the company?s capitalization reached $105.2 billion, 1.5 fold above LUKOIL. Of the amount, $15 billion were generated through subsidiaries' takeover.
The foreign traders accounted for the better part of agitation related to Rosneft. The company?s turnover was nearly $65 million on LSE Friday, but the major part of it, the analysts say, was generated outside the exchange. It means the buyers could have attempted to benefit from some insider information. The traders in Russia were also set in motion. On classic RTS, Rosneft sales that had never soared above $2 million in the last fortnight, exceeded $5.7 million Friday.
Asked to specify the insider information, the analysts came up with different ideas. First of all, Rosneft has been recently thought a frontrunner for refining assets of YUKOS. Should Rosneft takes them over, its capitalization would stand at $110 billion, Aton analysts estimate.
Another explanation could be adding Rosneft to Morgan Stanley?s indices ? MSCI Emerging Markets ? which the market forecasts to happen November 14 or in December.
But the most intriguing piece of news could be the merger of Rosneft and Surgutneftegaz, which has been long talked over on the market. In the oil community, however, they refute all rumors about forthcoming consolidation.
?A month ago, General Director Vladimir Bogdanov blankly denied the possible sale of Surgutneftegaz. Nothing has changed, as far as I know,? said Surgutneftegaz briefer Raisa Khodchenko. Rosneft briefer didn?t confirm the consolidating rumors either.
Chinese expansion plans cover upstream, refining and distribution
Rosneft's CEO Sergei Bogdanchikov revealed further details of the company's plan to expand its business in Asia during a press conference in Beijing on Friday, Interfax reports. According to the CEO, developing the strategic partnership with Chinese state-owned CNPC and utilizing the recently formed Rosneft/CNPC joint venture Vostok Energy, the companies could produce at least 10mn tons of oil (73mn bbls) per annum in three to five years, using the new East Siberian prospects as the main oil source and the East Siberian Pacific Ocean pipeline as the major transportation route.
Bogdanchikov also noted that a new JV aimed at creating a refining and distribution chain in China may be formed later this year. The yet-unnamed venture would focus on building a 10mn ton capacity refinery and more than 300 retail stations in mainland China, bringing Rosneft closer to end consumers and allowing the company to capture retail margins.
Friday's comments by the Rosneft CEO also highlighted the company's potential to raise its crude exports to China from the current 13mn tons to more than 20mn tons per annum using oil produced at Sakhalin-1, the Kazakhstan pipeline Atasu-Alashankou (4.5mn tons estimated annual capacity), and railroad transportation through Mongolia. Bogdanchikov stated that any increase in crude flows to Chinese markets would hinge mostly on the economic viability of the sales and be based on the competitiveness of crude pricing and other costs. An optimal choice of the direction of sales between Asian and European markets could boost the company's margins and raise its profitability, although the current economic impact remains vague.
In other news, Rosneft's share in Yukos' debt increased by $129mn, following the Moscow Arbitration Court's approval of the additional claim submitted by Rosneft. The company's total debt stake approved by Russian courts is now estimated at $9.7bn, with $450mn more confirmed in Europe, which is 1.3% higher than previous estimates. We see the news as slightly positive for the company.
While the exact economic impact of the Chinese expansion remains unclear, the recent statements confirm Rosneft's expansionary drive. In combination with the implicit and explicit support of the state, this to us implies that in a few years' time the company could materially boost its scale and value. Our recommendation for Rosneft is Buy, with an end-2007 fair value of $10.4.
: Rosneft wird Russlands größter Ölförderer
Rosneft wird nach jüngstem Yukos-Kauf Russlands größter Ölförderer
MOSKAU (dpa-AFX) - Der vom Kreml kontrollierte Ölkonzern Rosneft hat den letzten Förderbetrieb aus der Konkursmasse des zerschlagenen Yukos-Konzerns ersteigert und ist damit zum größten russischen Ölförderer aufgestiegen. Über die Tochter Neft-Aktiv erhielt Rosneft am Donnerstag bei der 11. Yukos-Auktion in Moskau für 165,7 Milliarden Rubel (4,7 Mrd Euro) den Zuschlag für Samaraneftegas an der Wolga und drei Raffinerien, wie die Agentur Interfax meldete.
Somit verwies Rosneft den bisherigen russischen Branchenprimus Lukoil auf Platz zwei. Vor einer Woche hatte Rosneft bereits das letzte große Paket von dutzenden Yukos-Vermögenswerten gekauft, darunter den Ölproduzenten Tomskneft mit einer Jahresförderung von 11 Millionen Tonnen Öl. Samaraneftegas hatte 2006 etwa 9,3 Millionen Tonnen gewonnen. Nach dem jüngsten Zukauf dürfte die jährliche Produktion von Rosneft bei etwa 106 Millionen Tonnen liegen, während die Ölgewinnung bei Lukoil in diesem Jahr 95,5 Millionen Tonnen kaum übersteigen wird.
Zweiter Bieter war die wenig bekannte Firma Wersar. Der Einstiegspreis für das jüngste Paket lag bei 154,09 Milliarden Rubel. Bei den weiteren Auktionen sollen nur kleinere Pakete von Vermögenswerten aus der Yukos-Konkursmasse versteigert werden. Am Freitag wird der Moskauer Firmensitz von Yukos verkauft.
Yukos war im Vorjahr mit milliardenschweren Steuernachforderungen in die Pleite getrieben worden und hatte bereits seinen wichtigsten Förderbetrieb, Juganskneftegas, an Rosneft abgeben müssen. Regierungskritiker äußerten den Verdacht, dass mit Hilfe der Auktionen Yukos-Vermögen weit unter Wert an kremlnahe Konzerne verkauft wurde. Der frühere Yukos-Eigentümer Michail Chodorkowski muss eine achtjährige Haftstrafe wegen Betrugs und Steuerhinterziehung verbüßen./am/DP/edh
Rosneft to buy filling stations sold off at YUKOS auction
RBC, 26.06.2007, Moscow 09:53:45.Neft Aktiv, indirectly owned by Rosneft Group, has entered into an agreement with Unitex to buy, among other assets, a chain of filling stations in European and southern Russia that was sold off at a YUKOS auction, Rosneft's press office said. Under the agreement, Neft Aktiv has paid RUR16.324bn (approx. USD630.27m) for a group of facilities, including 495 filling stations and nearby oil loading terminals.
Furthermore, Neft Aktiv has also agreed with YUKOS's receiver to acquire lot No. 9 of YUKOS's assets including over 100 filling stations in southern Russia, 100 percent in Stavropolnefteprodukt, and stakes in other assets for RUR4.9bn (approx. USD189.19m).