I get a share price of $1.70, even with using conservative numbers and prior to building in anything from a possible eventual TSX listing.
This assumes no other major negative news from CMM and no major gold price corrections within the next few months.
Our new starting point is $.89. It means we have to bridge a gap of $.61 to get back to $1.50.
Here are some possible events that can get us there, as well as a rough estimate of potential value to share price (I AM PURPOSELY USING VERY CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS):
1) Added promotion from Casey and additional buying from other new institutions – possible value of $.05 (naturally, super conservative here).
2) SJ drill results - $.02 (potentially super conservative here also – it has the potential of being explosive)
3) Issuance of mining permit for Lamaque - $.15 (could be very explosive)
4) Decision on legal action for Poderosa deal - $.10 (could be very explosive)
5) Show a net profit for 2006 overall (or at least break even). We need to show a net profit of $1,288,458 in Q4 to break even in 2006 – $.02.
6) Meet production guidance (77,000 - Sigma and SJ combined) for 2006 - $.03.
7) Realize a cash cost per ounce of $385 US or below in Q4 - $.02
8) Declare end to waste removal (pre-stripping) program at Sigma - $.10
9) Issuance of positive 43-101 reserve results (ounces) for Lamaque - $.04
10) First gold pour at Lamaque - $.05
11) Declare commercial production at San Juan (or establish profitability) - $.03
12) 43-101 report for San Juan with 1M resource ounces (not defined as reserves as yet, and could include substantial inferred given the early stage of the exploration program). This will not happen until late summer. - $.05
13) Achieve net profit, as well as meet production and cash cost per oz targets for Q1’07 - $.05
14) Declare commercial production at Lamaque (this event will occur much later than the most events on the list – earliest will be July) - $.10
15) No recent updates on a TSX listing, but an eventual listing could be worth a good $.15 to the share price. However, I will assign no share price value for now, given the high level of uncertainty - $0
Again, these are only possibilities. These events (and potential share price impacts) may or may not be realized over time.
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Besitzer von Zinspapieren schlafen gut; Aktienbesitzer dagegen leben gut
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