Alcatel-Lucent - klassischer Rebound- Kandidat?

Mar. 4, 2012, 2:00pm PT

Alcatel-Lucent won the prestigious Infrastructure Technology award at Mobile World Congress 2012– literally the Oscars of the infrastructure industry. Its LightRadio technology has been making waves and helped it win deals with customers all over the world. In addition to its role on the red carpet, Alca-Lu also worked with Telefonica to light up the LTE network in Barcelona.

weiter
http://gigaom.com/broadband/...fers-a-prescription-for-telco-success/

endlich erste positive !

(darum vielleicht drüben am Schluss noch rauf)



Bloomberg

Alcatel-Lucent CEO Verwaayen Says Company No Longer on a Financial ‘Cliff’

By Scott Moritz - Mar 6, 2012 2:47 AM GMT+0100

Alcatel-Lucent (ALU), the Paris-based networking-equipment maker, is focusing on innovation and is no longer on a financial precipice, Chief Executive Officer Ben Verwaayen said today.

The company, entering its fourth year under Verwaayen, has struggled with spending pullbacks by large telephone companies and increased competition from China-based rivals Huawei Technologies Co. and ZTE Corp. (000063)

Last year, Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) posted a profit for the first time since it was formed in 2006 by the merger of Alcatel SA and Lucent Technologies. One target Verwaayen missed last year was the amount of cash held by the company.

“Our balance sheet wasn’t strong enough,” Verwaayen said in an interview at Bloomberg’s headquarters in New York. “We were a company on a cliff. We don’t want to be a company on a cliff,” he said, adding that “we expect at the end of 2012” to have bolstered the cash position.

Last month, the company reported negative free cash flow of 458 million euros ($606 million) for 2011 and pushed back its goal of turning that metric positive until 2012. Last year’s sales declined 1.9 percent to 15.7 billion euros.

The company’s performance has been hard on investors, with the stock falling 54 percent over the past year. It also has affected Verwaayen, a former BT Group Plc (BT/A) CEO who took over in 2008. He waived his 2012 stock bonus for missing the target.

European Cuts

Alcatel-Lucent also said last month that it will expand profit margins, eliminate $660.9 million in costs this year and cut 1,800 positions in Europe. Verwaayen says he plans to reassign a large number of those workers somewhere else in the company and build on the company’s history of innovation and its worldwide customer base.

Alcatel-Lucent ended 2011 with an adjusted operating profit as a percentage of sales of about 3.9 percent, and Verwaayen expects to improve that in 2012.

“For our shareholders, we need to have a return,” Verwaayen said. He said the goal he’s working toward, though it’s not a forecast, is a 10 percent operating profit margin. “To dance with the best in the class, it has to be around 10 percent,” he said.  

Poised to Benefit

Five Star Equities – 1 hour 31 minutes ago

LTE is the fastest developing mobile system technology ever. This growth is quantified by In-Stat, who recently reported that the number of LTE handsets is expected to top 154 million devices by 2015. Market research firm I.H.S. iSupply says capital spending on LTE technology is projected to jump in size to $24.3bn in 2013.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...nding-virnetx-alcatel-132000585.html

Prior to the management change at ALU, and its subsequent focus on adjusting the structure of its operating model to reduce fixed costs, it was in a prime position for a takeover by a private equity. However, its stock price was higher then, so that part of the equation wasn't there.

Today we see ALU addressing the right priorities, but the stock price is far lower. This opens an opportunity for private equity that wasn't there before.
The price is low enough today that a private equity group could offer a substantial premium that would likely be acceptable by the board and the shareholders.

The company is already taking the right steps to improve its operating model.

ALU is positioned well to participate in the build out of next generation networks.
I think given the prospect that ALU will report revenue this calendar year above $20B, the company could bring $4 per share in a buy out pretty easily and, possibly, something in the range of $5 to $6.

However, as an investor I would not buy shares of ALU based on the thought it will become an acquisition candidate.

That said, I think if ALU executes as I expect it will, and the demand for next generation wireless networks builds traction as most observers are forecasting it will this year, I believe ALU will merit a price of $4 to $6 on its own.

http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/...ab7644-01a6-4b4e-b636-443995abad2b

March 7, 2012

BONN, Germany -- Researchers at Telekom Innovation Laboratories (T-Labs) have succeeded in realizing a 512 Gbit/s transmission over a single optical-fiber wavelength channel for the first time. This corresponds to a usable bit rate of 400 Gbit/s, or the simultaneous transmission of 77 music CDs. While the bar is higher for fiber-optic transmission in a laboratory setting, this record was set under realworld conditions in the Telekom optical network on a route of 734 km from Berlin to Hanover and back by speed of light.

 

Optical fiber forms the backbone of data networks, transporting vast amounts of data between nodes. The maximum bit rate in backbone networks today is 100 Gbit/s per channel. When using all of the channels of an optical fiber, much like a four-lane highway, the new process permits a throughput of up to 24.6 Tbit/s (24,600,000,000,000 bit/s) to be attained on the maximum of 48 available channels (comparable to 48 lanes) of the data highways. A collection of 3,696 CDs could thus be transferred over a single optical fiber - a strand thinner than a human hair - at the same time. With the new method, existing networks can double their current transmission capacity by merely replacing the technology in the terminal stations.

"Together with our technology partner Alcatel-Lucent and the experts at Telekom Network Production, we are very proud of having attained this tremendous transmission performance over the Internet under real-world conditions," said T-Labs Manager Heinrich Arnold. "With them, we have successfully developed an innovative method by which the transmission capacity of optical fiber can be increased significantly in network operation."

es kommt Stimmung auf

Datum Time National # Veränderung (%)
14-03-2012 10:01:34 -
0.06 (3.38 %)
Volumen Vortag Eröffnung Letzter
8'973'118 1.776 1.80 1.836 EUR

 

Grund:
(Andere werden folgen, denke ich)


BMO raises ALU to Outperform

Alcatel-Lucent wins 2.6% to 1.82 Euro shortly after the opening of Paris. Reportedly, the New York broker BMO Capital Markets raised to "outperform" recommendation on the matter.

http://www.boursier.com/actions/actualites/news/alcatel-luce…

 

das Andere folgen werden.

Seit dem 10. Februar sind hier satte 68% der Aktien gehandelt worden (Paris + New York) und es scheint mir das auf diese Kursniveaus kaum noch weiter abgegrast werden kann.

Zudem rückt Q1 allmählich näher.

1.5 Mrd Abschluss möglich ! :dance:

Singh-Molares  is president of telecommunications provider Alcatel Lucent  Asia Pacific, so he has a clear interest in advancing the cause of the  NBN. The company holds a contract worth up to $1.5 billion to provide  equipment for the rollout.
Good find,thanks


steht in der Mitte des Artikels
http://afr.com/p/technology/...demand_soaring_across_asia_dEk9Qeqw...

und ebenso
http://next-generation-communications.tmcnet.com/...xtgen-voice/ar...

 

neue zusätzliche Funktionen werden angeboten

http://www.4-traders.com/ALCATEL-LUCENT-4606/news/ALCATEL-LU…

ALCATEL-LUCENT : weaves together voice, video and online collaboration tools for businesses and extends them to employees’ personal devices
03/26/2012 | 11:44am

 

Seems that ALU is a leader in Optical:

AlcaLu's 100G Boast

12:15 PM -- There's no doubt that Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) is making  significant headway in gaining traction for its 100Gbit/s transport  equipment, having announced numerous deployments in recent months.

There's also no doubt that the vendor is an optical transport innovator  and one of the leaders in the market. But when the company claims, as it  did in its most recent 100Gbit/s customer win announcement in Austria,  that it "led the way in the introduction of 100G, [and] remains the only  vendor delivering this level of speed and capacity on existing  networks," what does it mean exactly? (See H3G Deploys AlcaLu's 100G.)

Certainly, other optical systems vendors with 100Gbit/s offerings,  including Ciena Corp. (Nasdaq: CIEN), Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. and  Nokia Siemens Networks , might like to know. (See BT Heads for 400G With  Ciena, Unknown Document 205930 and NSN Makes Optical Advances.)

Well, here's the answer, as supplied by Harald Himmer, head of the  Alcatel-Lucent business in Austria, in an email to Light Reading.

Alcatel-Lucent's 100G solution provides the most efficient use of  spectrum on existing networks, enabling optimum speed and capacity, as  it eliminates the need for guard bands when deployed side by side with  10G and 40G wavelengths.
Alcatel-Lucent is the only vendor that has been commercially shipping a  single carrier solution in volume with 45+ references and numerous  publicly announced wins such as H3G, which are mostly network-wide  upgrades to 100G, and not selective, highly-engineered routes as claimed  in most competitors' announcements.

Alcatel-Lucent is a recognized leader in 100G research and 100G  single-carrier coherent commercialization resulting in the (live,  revenue-generating) deployment of 100G on any fiber, any route, any  network.

All credit to Himmer for providing that detail, but is that the same as  "the only vendor delivering this level of speed and capacity on existing  networks"?

Any thoughts welcome on the message boards below.

In the meantime, here's a rundown of AlcaLu's most recent 100Gbit/s news:

http://www.lightreading.com/blog.asp?doc...

 

einfach dabei bleiben

 

March 27, 2012 — 5:14pm ET | By Tammy Parker


The big four U.S. mobile  operators are ramping up their capital expenditures as they plunge headfirst  into LTE deployment and expansion, according to a research note from Jefferies  & Company.

"2012 could be the first year in recent memory where  all of the major operators in North America are spending aggressively at the  same time. We think that Q2 and Q3, in particular, look very strong,"  according to the note written by Jefferies equity analyst George Notter.
 

http://www.fiercebroadbandwireless.com/story/...apex-surge/2012-03-27

Mar 28, 2012

New Mexico and Texas to Get Superfast 4G LTE Services for the First Time Thanks to PVT Supported by Alcatel-Lucent

Internet access to be offered in areas of New Mexico and Texas along with new services to help increase efficiencies in local industries

ARTESIA, N.M. and PARIS, March 29, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Many people living in the southwestern U.S. states of New Mexico and Texas are for the first time to be offered high-speed Internet access, thanks to the launch of a new 4G LTE service by Penasco Valley Telecommunications (PVT) and supported by Alcatel-Lucent (Euronext Paris and NYSE: ALU). Operating under the Fuego Wireless brand, PVT will bring blazingly fast 4G LTE Internet to the areas it serves; including expansive diverse terrain, rural agricultural communities, and metropolitan areas such as Santa Fe and Las Cruces.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/...ted-by-alcatel-lucent-20120329-00427

was sagen die technikprofis und zukunftsvisionäre. ist alcatel-lucent jetzt wieder kaufenswert. marktcapitalisierung bei knapp 4mrd hört sich reizvoll an. nur verschuldungsquote schreckt halt ab.

 

sehr eigenartiger Verlauf heute,
am Tiefpunkt gab es einen grösseren Umsatz

hier schöner Chart:
http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/...ls&from=yahoo  

 

hier das Ziel 3.9 € noch viel schöner


http://www.aktiencheck.de/analysen/Artikel-Alcatel_Lucent_Ak…

**************************************************

UBS raises Alcatel Lucent price target

UBS raises Alcatel Lucent SA price target to EUR 1.90 from EUR

1.70; rating neutral

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46922809

 

http://www.mspnews.com/news/2012/04/03/6231701.htm

Nicht verkaufen, Langzeitsicht notwendig !
(Tod des PC, alles Mobile)

http://beta.fool.com/johnmylant/2012/04/10/you-need-long-ter…

 

 

1,00 bis 3,90 wer nimmt Analysten dann überhaupt noch ernst

Zudem kz 1,00 € ... trotzdem neutral :)

 

12.04.12 Exane BNP Paribas - Alcatel-Lucent-Aktie: neutral

Paris (www.aktiencheck.de) - Alexander Peterc und Alexandre Faure, Analysten von Exane BNP Paribas, stufen die Aktie von Alcatel-Lucent (Alcatel-Lucent Aktie) weiterhin mit dem Rating "neutral" ein. Das Kursziel werde bei 1,00 EUR gesehen. (Analyse vom 10.04.2012)

02.04.12 Grupo Santander - Alcatel-Lucent-Aktie: "buy"

Madrid (www.aktiencheck.de) - Carlos Javier Trevino Peinador, Analyst von Grupo Santander, stufen die Aktie von Alcatel-Lucent (Alcatel-Lucent Aktie) unverändert mit "buy" ein. Das Kursziel werde bei 3,90 EUR gesehen.

03.04.12 Oddo Securities - Alcatel-Lucent-Aktie: "buy"

Paris (www.aktiencheck.de) - Vincent Maulay, Analyst von Oddo Securities, stuft die Aktie von Alcatel-Lucent (Alcatel-Lucent Aktie) unverändert mit "buy" ein. Das Kursziel werde bei 2,50 EUR gesehen. (Analyse vom 02.04.12)

Vermont  Telephone dramatically expands the availability of superfast broadband  and video services with the help of Alcatel-Lucent

New  network includes 100 gigabit per second (100G) optical transport  capabilities coupled with IP video and fiber-optic access technologies  to bring broadband Internet to traditionally underserved areas........

 

http://www.boursier.com/actions/forum/...rfast-broadband-i190675.html

 

Ein Teilnehmer stellt die Frage nach der künftigen Ertrags- und Gewinnentwicklung.
Mehr wissen wir am 26. April um 7h (präsentation 1.Q)

Ich bin leider auch nicht Hellseher, sehe jedoch praktisch jeden Tag den Abschluss neuer Aufträge.

Einige Banken raten runter andere rauf ????

Hier eine sehr gute Aufstellung diverser Empfehlungen:
http://www.boursier.com/actions/forum/...eat-opportunity-i180811.html

Gestern neu:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/04/16/...these-stocks.aspx

Bei den künftigen Entwicklungen schaue ich auf die Werte von YahooFinance.
Die PE sind ausserordentlich tief :
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=ALU+Analyst+Estimates  

Schätzung von Credit Suisse
(sind zwar vorsichtig, Kursziel jedoch 1.6)

[i](Boursier.com) -- Le Crédit Suisse est toujours négatif avant la publication des résultats trimestriels d'Alcatel-Lucent le 26 avril prochain. Il valorise le dossier 1,60 Euro par action. L'analyste anticipe 3,25 Milliards d'Euros de revenus (-13% en glissement annuel) et 34,4% de marge brute, pour 81 ME de perte opérationnelle. Ces attentes sont proches de celles du consensus.[/i]

 

Stocks on the Road to Greatness

...
There  is risk, however, because as the need for towers grows, so, too, does  resistance to their siting. It's one of the reasons I think  Alcatel-Lucent (NYS: ALU) will be a huge winner going forward, because  it makes low-profile antennas that can mounted on poles or even  unobtrusively on the side of a building. I think its small-cell wireless  technology will be key in helping telecoms meet the burgeoning demands being placed on their networks.

Yet  there will also remain a need for the towers erected by American Tower  and SBC Communications, so I can see a number of winners emerging from  the mobile-communications explosion to come as a result of 4G-LTE  technology.

While I've put my money on Alcatel, the analyst  community is unanimously behind American Tower's ascendancy, and even  the broader CAPS community, where more than 900 members have weighed in,  finds 90% of those rating the tower company to outperform the market  indexes.
...
Source : Stocks on the Road to Greatness

 

Alcatel-Lucent Swaps Signals Rating Promotion: Corporate Finance

Apr 23, 2012

Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) investors drove down the cost of insuring the phone-equipment maker’s debt by more than any other European technology company this year as its bonds imply a two-level credit-rating boost.

Credit-default swaps protecting the Paris-based company’s debt from default for five years have fallen 646 basis points, or 36 percent, compared with the 31 percent decline for second- best performer Cap Gemini SA (CAP), according to CMA in London. The contracts imply a Ba2 rating, according to Moody’s Analytics, higher than its current B1 grade.  

Alcatel-Lucent reported 2011 net income of 1.1 billion euros ($1.5 billion) in February, ending five years of losses amid a slowdown in customer orders in Europe’s crisis. It plans to cut about $660 million in costs this year, following the end of a three-year turnaround plan by Chief Executive Officer Ben Verwaayen who plans to use the company’s patents to generate free cash flow for the first time.

“Alcatel-Lucent has an extensive patent portfolio that could be worth a significant sum of money,” said Matt Eagan, a Boston-based money manager at Loomis Sayles & Co., that owns Alcatel-Lucent bonds. “The Alcatel story looks attractive from a bondholder’s perspective.”
 

weiter:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-22/...on-corporate-finance.html