Top Solarwert - hat die Keiner auf der Rechnung?

http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/...nect-technology-20140811-00620  

http://www.wsj.de/article/...24052702304099004580092652261585266.html

....Schon in diesem Monat sollen die ersten Saphir-Bildschirme für die neuesten iPhones und Smartwatches im US-Bundesstaat Arizona vom Band laufen. Dort, im Städtchen Mesa, hat Apple zusammen mit dem Materialproduzenten GT Advanced Technologies GTAT -0,42% eine riesige Fabrik eröffnet. Zu Spitzenzeiten werde das Werk doppelt so viel Saphir produzieren wie sämtliche der weltweit fast 100 zurzeit existierenden Hersteller zusammen, sagt Eric Virey, ein leitender Analyst bei der französischen Marktforschung Yole Développement.

„Niemand hat jemals so viel Geld in Saphir investiert", sagt Virey.

GT und Apple stellen synthetischen Saphir her – ein Stoff, der die Eigenschaften des härtesten Minerals der Erde kopiert. Saphir bricht und zerkratzt nicht so leicht wie Glas. Es hält hohen Temperaturen stand und ist vor chemischer Korrosion gefeiT......  

und Kursziel $19 und  Jeffrey Osborne meint ,wenn auch derzeit noch EPS gedämpft ist wegen der Vollendung der Arizona Fabrik,ist GTAT doch bis 2016 auf einem klaren Weg von  $1.50-$2.00 in EPS ,wenn die Bedingungen für Solar und Leds sich auch verbessern.Er sieht auch verschiedene Nutzungsmöglichkeiten bei Apple für  iPhones (both 4.7″ and 5.2″) entsprechend den Gesprächen mit Experten ,die er geführt hat .Durch Hyperion werden sich auch die Kosten für Sapphire verringern.
Er sieht auch positive Möglichkeiten für GTAT im Solarbereich
Er geht von  $625.9 million in revenue and 15 cents in EPS in diesem Jahr aus....
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2014/08/...h-to-ride-solar/?  

mit Material?GTAT diversifiziert und geht ins Electronic Geschäft
-meint Hyperion könnte die Kostenschranke überwinden und die Anwendung von Silicon Carbid Dünnschicht ermöglichen
dies wäre noch nicht eingepreist in die jetzige Bewertung..........

interessante Tabelle zur wachsenden Entwicklung von Forschung seit 2010

http://seekingalpha.com/article/...chnologies-next-materials-business  

Es wird erwartet ,dass am 7.September das 4,7 und 5,5 inch Smartphone vorstellt,beide mit unzerkratzbaren Screens

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/aug/17/...sapphire-screens
dies ist der Grund für den Anstieg bei GTAT
http://www.thestreet.com/_nasdaq/story/12848715/1/...ning-today.html?

von 5,98 auf 5,88% jetzt  

Philip A. Fisher hat ein Buch geschrieben "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits," which was to become the bible of many professional investors around the world

er hat GTAt nach seien 15 Kriterien beurteilt und hält es für ein hervorragendes Longterm Investment

http://seekingalpha.com/article/...hilip-a-fishers-15-point-analysis?  

aber fällt jetzt nur 1,8% und nicht 3 ,was sich auch daraus erklärt,dass die wohl immer noch meinen ,die Fabrik in Arizona sei noch nicht so weit ,weswegen sie schon mal ein Downgrade vor 4 Wochen hatten

....We are still waiting to get ahold of the research note. But according to reports in SeekingAlpha, the downgrade comes a month after the same firm lowered its estimates for GT, citing potentially low sapphire yields at the company’s facility in Meza, AZ.

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2014/08/...-to-underperform/  

CLSA bezieht sich mit seinem Downgrade auf eine Analyse der Firma Yole,diie berichtet,dass zumindest eines der Iphones mit Sapphire ausgestattet sei,aber sie würden immer noch um Gewinn kämpfen.Yole schätzt ,dass das Sapphire $25 für das 4,7" kosten würde,die Kosten könnten aber $16fallen...

  Following a CC with compound semi consulting firm Yole Development about GT Advanced's (GTAT -2.4%) supply deal with Apple, CLSA's Mark Heller reports Yole believes at least one iPhone featuring sapphire cover glass will launch next month. However, it also thinks GT and Apple's sapphire finishing suppliers "are still struggling with yields."
   Yole estimates Apple's all-in sapphire cost is at a steep $25 for a 4.7" display, assuming a 30% growth yield and 60% finishing yield - that's over 8x the $3 cost estimate other analysts have provided for Gorilla Glass (GLW +1.5%) panels. GT is assigned an $8.90 ASP.
   At the same time, Yole thinks costs could drop to $16 if growth and finishing yields respectively improve to 60% and 75%, boosting GT's margins along the way.
   Heller writes Yole's base scenario suggests only 4.7M 4.7" sapphire displays, or 3M 5.5" displays, will be available by September.  Worth noting: With Apple having reportedly placed orders for 70M-80M iPhone 6 units, those numbers appear conservative in the event at least one of the models fully uses sapphire.
   Corning is moving higher. The company stated last month Gorilla Glass sales have been hurt by "lower-than-expected sales for planned new models."
http://seekingalpha.com/news/...on-yields-margins-glw-higher?uprof=46  

Das Echo auf Merlin sei phenomenal und GTAT erwartet drei bis vier grosse neue Kunden dafür.Man arbete daran auf die speziellen Wünsche einzelner Kunden eingehen zu können.Man werde 2015 in volle Porduktion gehen.GT wiederholte dass man einen jährlichen Umsatz von 400 Millionen bis 1 Milliarde erreichen könne damit
Summary

   The response to GT's Merlin product offering has been "phenomenal" and the company expects to select "3 to 4 mega customers."
   GTAT is currently working with its “elite customers to customize Merlin to each customer's particular needs” so that when “they ramp, they ramp at full speed."
   GT currently has the “whose who” of vertically integrated module and project businesses at its doorstep and expects to ramp into high volume production at the beginning of 2015......
http://seekingalpha.com/article/...-giant-in-2015-and-beyond?uprof=46

GT reiterated Merlin sales could reach $400m to $1B a year at a penetration rate of 8 to 20% by 2018. GT also indicated that Merlin would be the cornerstone of its solar business along with the return of PV and Polysilicon.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...ougher-than-last-year-185802497.html
Da die asiatischen Hersteller die Produktion schon hoch gefahren haben gibt es auch mehr undichte Stellen und Berichte.Investoren und Analysten sagen ,dass das neue Iphone sehr wahrscheinlich einen grösseren Screen hat.

With Apple’s rumored iPhone introduction less than a month away, Asian factories have already cranked up production on the next version of the popular smartphone, generating numerous leaks of new features....Investors and analysts say a larger screen is likely the top new iPhone feature, based on the leaks and credible media reports. Such a move would also be consistent with Apple’s strategy of revamping the iPhone’s physical appearance every two years, as it last did in 2012.

Apple’s current models offer just a 4-inch screen, but the 2014 versions are expected to provide 4.7-inch and possibly even 5.5-inch views. The 4.7-inch model would be around the same size as some of the most popular phones over the past few years that run Google’s (GOOGL) Android software.

, this year the focus is on higher prices. If Apple introduces a 5.5-inch model, it will certainly cost more, but some analysts think even the 4.7-inch model could carry a $100 premium. That could offset a normal decrease in profit margins that Apple typically suffers in the quarter when it rolls out a major new product.

Screen size was the most important design feature among U.S. smartphone buyers in the first quarter, coming well ahead of design attractiveness and quality of materials, according to a survey by Kantar Worldpanel Comtech. High-speed LTE broadband capability was the most popular function buyers sought, beating out camera quality and battery life.

Some phone makers have added even larger than 4.7-inch screens lately, such as HTC’s One M8 model with a 5-inch screen or Samsung’s Galaxy S5 with a 5.1-inch screen. But those models collectively haven’t sold as well as hoped, says Ben Bajarin, principal industry analyst at Creative Strategies.
“It’s a foregone conclusion, given the leaks, that there is a 4.7-inch model, which I think is the right size for many markets,” he says. “Anything above 5 inches has not done well in Western markets.”

Analysts and reporters have also spotted prototypes of a 5.5-inch iPhone....  

GT hat bestätigt,dass die Arizonafabrik erst diesen Monat in Produktion ging,es könne sein,dass die I-Watch erst im Dezember kommt
Summary

   Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has predicted that Apple could sell 60 million iWatches in the first year of production.
   This may be optimistic, but it's in line with growth estimates for the wearable market for 2015.
   This sales volume for iWatch could add as much as $9 billion in gross profit for 2015.

In the table below, I summarize some of the more recent forecasts that I've been able to find.......

...GT Advanced Technologies' (NASDAQ:GTAT) recent acknowledgement that they would only be starting production at the Mesa, AZ plant this month makes getting the iWatch ready for a Fall roll-out difficult. The August production start is about what I thought it would take, and actually, they've done a magnificent job just to get into production roughly 8 months after start. But there needs to be time to get the sapphire to screen makers and then assemble these into iWatches, build up product inventory and transport the inventory to retailers. It all takes time. It's like getting a very long freight train into motion.

Apple may end up unveiling the iWatch in December with sales commencing in January 2015. Will this delay hurt the stock? I doubt it.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2442015-apples-iwatch-profit-potential  

herstellen wie sich aus dem Antrag für eine Produktionserweiterung in Mesa ergibt

Summary

   The newest finished good being requested for production from Mesa, AZ is related to sapphire for jewelry and is a strong indication that GT is manufacturing sapphire for the iWatch.
   GTAT and Apple have requested approval to expand the existing scope of authority for Project Cascade’s facility to include additional components for use in production and additional finished goods.
   The economic impact of the latest request is set to benefit the City of Mesa and the entire state of Arizona.
........
Apple's iWatch is expected to support a sapphire cover screen and widely expected to be a fashionable product that belongs under the "jewelry" umbrella.
The latest Production Notification request from Apple and GT Advanced Technologies confirm that the Mesa, AZ sapphire plant will be producing not one but two key sapphire components for Apple. The two components are distinct and different.

The magnitude of the request appears to be significant. The request indicates that this approval "will benefit the City of Mesa and the entire State of Arizona." A city and state are directly impacted by job creation and sales tax. I expect this latest component to be a boon on both levels......

One component is sapphire finished goods not suitable for jewelry and the other sapphire finished good is jewelry specific. The first component is sapphire for the manufacturing of sapphire cover screens for the iPhone 6 and the second is sapphire cover screens for Apple's upcoming iWatch....

http://seekingalpha.com/article/...r-the-iwatch-and-iphone-6?uprof=46  

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2444775-the-coming-solar-capex-boom
Summary

   Demand for solar energy keeps on rising briskly, after steep price falls.
   Prices have stabilized and companies recovered some of their profit margins.
   For growth to continue, companies need to significantly expand capex, which has interesting implications for certain stocks. .....

......GT Advanced Technologies isn't entirely a pure play either (they have a sapphire crystallization furnace systems business as well). The shares have seen a whopper of an upturn already, in the spring of last year the shares went briefly below $3 but have come back swinging, due to a turn-around to profitability and an Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) deal:There could easily be a second leg up when material Apple revenue coincides with a substantial uptick in solar capex next year  

Shares of GT Advanced Technologies (NASDAQ: GTAT) were trading higher Tuesday morning following a positive report by analysts at Piper Jaffray.

Mike Ritzenthaler of Piper Jaffray resumed coverage of GT Advanced Technologies with an Overweight rating and $23 price target.

The analyst recommends owning shares of GT into the upcoming iPhone 6 introduce. Shares are expected to react "sharply" to newsflow about the company's sapphire content in the upcoming iPhone.

GT announced earlier this month that its Arizona sapphire manufacturing facility , built in partnership with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), is nearly complete.Shares of GT were trading higher by 3.2 percent at $18.52 Tuesday morning.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...ffray-buy-gt-advanced-151403906.html

According to Appleinsider, Apple is "expected to soon deploy the hard material on a wider scale."

According to Ritzenthaler's report, only the 64 GB version of iPhone 6 may contain sapphire. The analyst is expecting 30 percent of all iPhones sold in the third and fourth quarter may contain sapphire  

Ritzenthaler is modeling the company to make $606 million in revenue and $79.2 million in Ebitda, rising to $1.08 billion in revneue and $237.2 million in Ebitda next year, and then $1.82 billion in revenue and $469 million in Ebitda in 2016. Rising Ebitda can lift the stock’s multiple from a current 8 times that 2016 projected Ebitda, he believes.

Of course, Ritzenthaler acknowledges the company’s partnership with Apple (AAPL), supposedly for sapphire material for the next iPhone, is the immediate catalyst for the shares:

We want to own shares into the launch of the iPhone 6 (and potentially other new Apple products) [...] Based on recent reports from the WSJ, we are expecting that only the 64GB version of the iPhone 6 will include the sapphire cover glass, accounting for perhaps 30% of the total iPhone 6 devices sold in 3Q and 4Q14. We expect GTAT shares to react sharply to the sapphire content of the iPhone 6 the day of the launch. It is possible that other Apple products are launched in September, though we do not necessarily view the wearable technology offerings to be nearly as significant a driver of sapphire volume as the iPhone. With subsequent versions of the iPhone expected to be released in 2015 and 2016, what was a high-end feature on the iPhone 6 will likely become incorporated into every saleable version of the device. It would seem that yields from the Mesa facility are sub-optimal at the moment, which is to be expected from a new facility using unseasoned equipment with an unprecedented footprint. However, we believe that yields are sufficient to cover the initial production runs for the iPhone 6 and over the next 6-9 months we believe yields will improve with increasing volume.

But Ritzenthaler also cautions not to get distracted by the iPhone, as other parts of the business will be the meaningful drivers of Ebitda in the coming years:

Merlin, Hyperion, HiCz, and HVPE/PVD technologies. We believe the first orders for Merlin could come as soon as the 3Q print, with modest revenues appearing in 4Q. We have incorporated revenues from the HiCz tool in 1Q15, perhaps following an order in 4Q14. We look for orders of Merlin and HiCz as the nearest-term non-sapphire catalyst for GTAT shares. As the new product suite finds its legs, the company will likely work through the current backlog of ASF equipment that built up during the company’s construction of the facility in Mesa.

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2014/08/...nd-just-iphone-6/  

which is an incredible percentage. Most of the names I discuss for short squeeze potential have about 20%-30% of their float short. GT has more than 41% of its float short!

For this reason, investors might find GT an attractive speculative play as they look for a short squeeze. .....
http://seekingalpha.com/article/...nologies-is-a-short-squeeze-coming  

In a report published Thursday, Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov downgraded the rating on GT Advanced Technologies (NASDAQ: GTAT) from Market Perform to Underperform.

In the report, Raymond James noted, “We are downgrading GT from Market Perform to Underperform, following the stock's exceptionally strong YTD gain of 113%. This tactical rating change is not a fundamental statement on either GT's Apple relationship or its solar opportunities. However, on both fronts, we have a hard time seeing incremental news-flow that would support much upside in the stock. In fact, our bias is to the downside, particularly given valuation that – even on 2016 numbers – looks quite pricey. Bottom line: we think it's time to take profits.”

GT Advanced Technologies closed on Wednesday at $18.57.

Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/...technologies#ixzz3BhakAuqQ
 

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2014/08/...ent-in-cupertino/

The company is widely expected to announce new iPhone models, and possibly a long-rumored smart wearable device.  

Summary

   I'm forecasting GT to exit Q4 2014 with EPS of $0.44 and $429m in revenue or an annualized rate of $1.72 EPS and $1.72B in revenue heading into 2015.
   My base case scenario takes GT's revenues over $2B and EPS over $2.00 in 2015, with 2016 revenue over $3B and EPS over $3.00.
   My bull case scenario takes GT's revenues over $3B and EPS over $3.00 in 2015, with 2016 revenue over $4B and EPS over $5.00.

updated Matt Margolis
http://seekingalpha.com/article/...rd-bull-case-vs-base-case?uprof=46  

http://seekingalpha.com/article/...ath-forward-bull-case-vs-base-case

.........My Financial Model Update: 2015 & 2016 Base Case and Bull Case

Base Case Details

   $1.4B in Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) revenues
   $6 ASP for cover screens
   $3.75 ASP for iWatch

Bull Case Details

   $1.8B in Apple revenues
   $8 ASP for cover screens
   $3.75 ASP for iWatch

My most recent research leads me to believe Apple will pay $8 or less per 4.7″ sapphire screen and $9.50 for the 5.5″ sapphire screen. Although, I don't expect GTAT to sell sapphire at $6 per sapphire screen equivalent, I wanted to model my GTAT base case analysis assuming a lower ASP and annual Apple revenue levels.

I expect 85% of iPhones sold annually in 2015 and beyond to come with sapphire, up from my previous estimate of 70%. This means Apple will put sapphire cover screens on all iPhone 6 models by 2015. Legacy models, which I expect to make up 15% of units sold, may continue to use Gorilla Glass. I am still assuming a 25% gross margin on sapphire material sales to Apple.

I expect $300m of Merlin revenue in 2015, up from my previous estimate of $100m. The increase in Merlin revenue estimates were offset by a drop in traditional solar revenue that I expect to be pushed out slightly into 2016 versus the beginning in 1H of 2015.
For 2015, my base case is over $2B in revenue and EPS over $2, with 2016 revenue over $3B and EPS over $3.

For 2015, my bull case is over $3B in revenue and EPS over $3, with 2016 revenue over $4B and EPS of $5.

I am estimating 2014 FY revenue to come in at $745m and non-GAAP EPS of $0.20, driven by significant revenue and EPS acceleration over 2H of 2014, compared to a $0.48 non-GAAP EPS loss on $81m of revenue during 1H of 2014. For the full-year 2014, I am modeling GT's sapphire screen unit sales at 53 million and sales of $429 million. I expect GT to deliver enough sapphire bricks to produce 15m sapphire cover screens in Q3 and 38m in Q4, assuming a 4.7" size. After I mix adjust my sapphire cover screen estimate to factor in both-sized iPhone 6 variations, it results in an FY 2014 sapphire screen estimate of 45m to 53m.

My forecast for Q3 2014 is $235m in revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $0.24. My forecast for Q4 2014 is $429m in revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $0.44, which amounts to $664m revenue and $0.68 non-GAAP EPS for GT during 2H of 2014. Annualized, the Q4 EPS exit rate of $0.44 EPS and $429m of revenue equates to $1.76 EPS on $1.72B in revenue as GT heads into 2015. GT's Q4 2014 exit rate is a significant measurement because it is driven largely by Apple materials revenue that is expected to be fully ramped up by early 2015.

In addition, GT expects Merlin to a significant contributor towards 2015 earnings, after contributing an insignificant amount of revenue in 2014. I also expect GT to book $100m of Hyperion revenue in 2015, mostly comprised of Proton Accelerators for use in cancer treatment research associated with Boron Neutron Capture Therapy (BNCT). If GT's Proton Accelerator technology is adopted for BNCT cancer treatment, GT may sell hundreds of Hyperion tools at an average of $10 to $15m per unit. Lastly, I am modeling GT's traditional solar capital equipment business to contribute $300m in 2015 sales, with much of it back-loaded in 2015. GT's backlog as of the end of Q2 2014 totaled $628m, and I expect the company to exit 2014 with over $500m still in backlog.

The Mesa facility will not be fully ramped until early 2015, and GT will be booking revenue from Merlin, Hyperion and other lines of business, so my 2015 base-case revenue estimate of $2.35B looks very reasonable.

Price Target and PE Ratios

During my August 5th Q&A following GTAT's Q2 earnings call, someone asked what PE GT deserves and whether I am sticking to my $87.50 price target. I charted out GT's forward PE based on my base- and bull-case estimates for 2015 and 2016, and compared it to GT's forecasted EPS growth rate in 2016.

GT's EPS growth in 2016 is 50% under the base case and almost 70% under the bull case.At $87.50, GT's forward P/E would be slightly above 40 for my 2015 base case of $2 EPS and just under 30 for my bull-case scenario of $3 EPS.

Fast forward to 2016, however, and at $87.50, GT's forward P/E would be less than 30 for the base case of $3 EPS and under 20 for the bull case of $5 EPS. Overall, I believe my price target makes a lot of sense given the underlying fundamentals.

As I look ahead into 2015, I am completely dumbfounded by the GTAT Wall Street Analyst community estimates for 2015, which are currently $0.82 EPS on $1.14B in sales. I expect GT's 2H 2014 sales to total $664m revenue and $0.68 non-GAAP EPS, driven almost exclusively by sapphire equipment and Apple materials' revenue. In 2015, GT will enjoy the luxury of a full-year contribution from a fully ramped-up sapphire growth operation in Mesa, AZ as well as the continued expansion of the sapphire equipment capital cycle. On top of the Apple sapphire materials revenue and ASF equipment revenue, GT will enjoy a full-year contribution from GT's "ramp-ready" Merlin interconnect solar modules, as well as the revenue recognition of a handful of Hyperion Proton Accelerators units for BNCT cancer therapy research in 2015.

My price by the middle of 2015 for GT is $87.50; as for the remainder of 2014, I expect GT's shares to double from these levels and trade between $30 and $40 before 2014 is all said and done. The catalyst that will drive GT's share prices north of $40 will be watching the formation of the GT octopus (Apple sapphire materials, Merlin, Hyperion, sapphire equipment, traditional solar
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Matt Margolis, Wall Street Forensics (967 clicks)
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GT Advanced Technologies' Path Forward: Bull Case Vs. Base Case
Aug. 31, 2014 12:15 AM ET  |  83 comments  |  About: GT Advanced Technologies, Inc. (GTAT), Includes: AAPL

Disclosure: The author is long GTAT. (More...)
Summary

   I'm forecasting GT to exit Q4 2014 with EPS of $0.44 and $429m in revenue, or an annualized rate of $1.72 EPS and $1.72B in revenue heading into 2015.
   My base-case scenario takes GT's revenues over $2B and EPS over $2.00 in 2015, with 2016 revenue over $3B and EPS over $3.00.
   My bull-case scenario takes GT's revenues over $3B and EPS over $3.00 in 2015, with 2016 revenue over $4B and EPS over $5.00.

Original Publication Date: August 7th, 2014 by Matt Margolis via PTT Research FORENSICS

GT Advanced Technologies (NASDAQ:GTAT) reported earnings on August 5th, 2014, and my key takeaways from GT's Q2 2014 earnings call are below. I have updated my financial model to reflect GT's path forward with two financial scenarios; a base-case and a bull-case scenario.

High Level Summary from GT's Earnings Call:

   Revised 2014 EPS range from $0.02-0.18 to $0.12-0.18.
   Revised 2014 Revenue range lower from $600m-800m to $600-700m.
   Expects to receive final prepayment from Apple by October 31, contingent on reaching certain operational targets set by Apple.
   GTAT is now capable of producing 6-inch diameter sapphire laminates measuring 26 microns in thickness.
   GTAT has successfully exfoliated the thinnest freestanding SiC (Silicon Carbide) lamina in the world, measuring 32 microns in thickness and 2 inches in diameter.
   GTAT expects low-volume Merlin revenue in Q3 2014, and expects Merlin to contribute significantly to FY 2015 results.
   GTAT is working closely with worldwide leaders of Boron Neutron Cancer Therapy (BNCT) to incorporate Hyperion into clinical trials. Expect a purchase order before the end of 2014.
   GTAT workforce comprises 1,100 employees and 700 contractors, up from just over 500 employees as of Dec '13.

My Financial Model Update: 2015 & 2016 Base Case and Bull Case

Base Case Details

   $1.4B in Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) revenues
   $6 ASP for cover screens
   $3.75 ASP for iWatch

Bull Case Details

   $1.8B in Apple revenues
   $8 ASP for cover screens
   $3.75 ASP for iWatch

My most recent research leads me to believe Apple will pay $8 or less per 4.7″ sapphire screen and $9.50 for the 5.5″ sapphire screen. Although, I don't expect GTAT to sell sapphire at $6 per sapphire screen equivalent, I wanted to model my GTAT base case analysis assuming a lower ASP and annual Apple revenue levels.

I expect 85% of iPhones sold annually in 2015 and beyond to come with sapphire, up from my previous estimate of 70%. This means Apple will put sapphire cover screens on all iPhone 6 models by 2015. Legacy models, which I expect to make up 15% of units sold, may continue to use Gorilla Glass. I am still assuming a 25% gross margin on sapphire material sales to Apple.

I expect $300m of Merlin revenue in 2015, up from my previous estimate of $100m. The increase in Merlin revenue estimates were offset by a drop in traditional solar revenue that I expect to be pushed out slightly into 2016 versus the beginning in 1H of 2015.

In the charts below, I break out my revenue estimates by line of business, distinguishing between bull- and base-case scenarios. For 2015, my base case is over $2B in revenue and EPS over $2, with 2016 revenue over $3B and EPS over $3.

For 2015, my bull case is over $3B in revenue and EPS over $3, with 2016 revenue over $4B and EPS of $5.

I am estimating 2014 FY revenue to come in at $745m and non-GAAP EPS of $0.20, driven by significant revenue and EPS acceleration over 2H of 2014, compared to a $0.48 non-GAAP EPS loss on $81m of revenue during 1H of 2014. For the full-year 2014, I am modeling GT's sapphire screen unit sales at 53 million and sales of $429 million. I expect GT to deliver enough sapphire bricks to produce 15m sapphire cover screens in Q3 and 38m in Q4, assuming a 4.7" size. After I mix adjust my sapphire cover screen estimate to factor in both-sized iPhone 6 variations, it results in an FY 2014 sapphire screen estimate of 45m to 53m.

My forecast for Q3 2014 is $235m in revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $0.24. My forecast for Q4 2014 is $429m in revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $0.44, which amounts to $664m revenue and $0.68 non-GAAP EPS for GT during 2H of 2014. Annualized, the Q4 EPS exit rate of $0.44 EPS and $429m of revenue equates to $1.76 EPS on $1.72B in revenue as GT heads into 2015. GT's Q4 2014 exit rate is a significant measurement because it is driven largely by Apple materials revenue that is expected to be fully ramped up by early 2015.

In addition, GT expects Merlin to a significant contributor towards 2015 earnings, after contributing an insignificant amount of revenue in 2014. I also expect GT to book $100m of Hyperion revenue in 2015, mostly comprised of Proton Accelerators for use in cancer treatment research associated with Boron Neutron Capture Therapy (BNCT). If GT's Proton Accelerator technology is adopted for BNCT cancer treatment, GT may sell hundreds of Hyperion tools at an average of $10 to $15m per unit. Lastly, I am modeling GT's traditional solar capital equipment business to contribute $300m in 2015 sales, with much of it back-loaded in 2015. GT's backlog as of the end of Q2 2014 totaled $628m, and I expect the company to exit 2014 with over $500m still in backlog.

The Mesa facility will not be fully ramped until early 2015, and GT will be booking revenue from Merlin, Hyperion and other lines of business, so my 2015 base-case revenue estimate of $2.35B looks very reasonable.

(Image Source: Wall Street Forensics)
Price Target and PE Ratios

During my August 5th Q&A following GTAT's Q2 earnings call, someone asked what PE GT deserves and whether I am sticking to my $87.50 price target. I charted out GT's forward PE based on my base- and bull-case estimates for 2015 and 2016, and compared it to GT's forecasted EPS growth rate in 2016.

GT's EPS growth in 2016 is 50% under the base case and almost 70% under the bull case.

(Image Source: Wall Street Forensics)

At $87.50, GT's forward P/E would be slightly above 40 for my 2015 base case of $2 EPS and just under 30 for my bull-case scenario of $3 EPS.

Fast forward to 2016, however, and at $87.50, GT's forward P/E would be less than 30 for the base case of $3 EPS and under 20 for the bull case of $5 EPS. Overall, I believe my price target makes a lot of sense given the underlying fundamentals.

As I look ahead into 2015, I am completely dumbfounded by the GTAT Wall Street Analyst community estimates for 2015, which are currently $0.82 EPS on $1.14B in sales. I expect GT's 2H 2014 sales to total $664m revenue and $0.68 non-GAAP EPS, driven almost exclusively by sapphire equipment and Apple materials' revenue. In 2015, GT will enjoy the luxury of a full-year contribution from a fully ramped-up sapphire growth operation in Mesa, AZ as well as the continued expansion of the sapphire equipment capital cycle. On top of the Apple sapphire materials revenue and ASF equipment revenue, GT will enjoy a full-year contribution from GT's "ramp-ready" Merlin interconnect solar modules, as well as the revenue recognition of a handful of Hyperion Proton Accelerators units for BNCT cancer therapy research in 2015.

My price by the middle of 2015 for GT is $87.50; as for the remainder of 2014, I expect GT's shares to double from these levels and trade between $30 and $40 before 2014 is all said and done. The catalyst that will drive GT's share prices north of $40 will be watching the formation of the GT octopus (Apple sapphire materials, Merlin, Hyperion, sapphire equipment, traditional solar equipment and sapphire laminates for mobile devices) take shape by the middle of 2015.

charts unter dem Link  

Summary

   GT Advanced Technologies has morphed from a solar equipment company to an upstream equipment and downstream materials business.
   This blended structure gives the company more dependable cash flows but makes the company difficult to value for investors and analysts.
   We believe the conglomerate discount is severe and investors need to be aware of this impact.
........

Judging by recent analyst reports and the bimodal response to GT Advanced Technologies' prospects, we believe a fresh look is in order to evaluate the Company's future for the material as well as equipment businesses of the Company.

Investors in GT Advanced Technology who are excited about the Company's prospects will be well served to understand the conglomerate discount and how it may affect their portfolios. In subsequent articles, we will analyze the value of different parts of the GT Advanced Technologies business. Our sum of parts valuation exercise will make it clear that the Company has a substantial conglomerate discount.

Our Sentiment: Buy
http://seekingalpha.com/article/...the-conglomerate-discount?uprof=46  

GT Advanced Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:GTAT) edged higher after a Seeking Alpha blog post, in which contributor Casual Analyst called the stock “one of our favorite companies in the solar space.”

Last week, the stock came in under pressure after Raymond James’s Pavel Molchanov downgraded the stock to Underperform from Market Perform, arguing that the boost from Apple’s business is priced into the stock, and expectations are too high for the year 2016’s results. Molchanov writes that he is not changing his view on the value of the Apple relationship, or the company’s opportunities supplying the solar energy market.

But the stock’s more than doubled this year, he notes, and “Shares are currently at 33x our 2015E non-GAAP EPS of $0.56, which assumes steady-state sapphire sales to Apple and a doubling in solar equipment revenue.”

http://www.marketsemerging.com/...qgtat-yandex-nv-nasdaqyndx/1712407/  

und GTAT gleich mit minus 5%
http://www.mobilegeeks.de/...iele-nacktfotos-von-superstars-erbeutet/  

streng nach unten, gen Süden. Gibt es außer roten Vorzeichen noch etwas Anderes?  

diese Schwankungen gehen mir auch auf den Sack