Ecki, bitte mach doch künftig kenntlich, wenn Du spekulative Vorhersagen machst. Manch charttechnisch unbedarfte Leser kann dies möglicherweise nicht von bestätigten charttechnischen Signalen unterscheiden.
Vor einigen Monaten hatte ich auch noch die Hoffnung, dass die Zinssenkungen ab Juli oder August greifen müßten (vgl. frühere Postings von mir). Mittlerweile denke ich, dass wir sowohl zeitlich als auch vom Index-Stand her erst etwa 60 % des gesamten Chrashs gesehen haben. Viele reden hier von einem Salami-Chrash, aber der Chrash von 1929 zog sich sogar über drei Jahre hin.
Hier noch ein aktueller Kommentar von comstockfunds, der meine Befürchtungen gut zusammenfaßt:
Between A Rock And a Hard Place The Fed’s statement accompanying its 50 basis point reduction in rates indicates that they are probably as concerned about the economy as we are, and that is NOT good news. The press release is almost identical to the one put out with the surprise April 18th intermeeting cut. There is absolutely nothing in the statement indicating that the central bank thinks the economy is recovering or that it is even close to doing so. If anything, a couple of minor word changes were a bit stronger on the negative side than the language used in the April release. This time the Fed stated that capital spending had continued to “decline” whereas the April statement used the word, “soften”. They also mentioned that certain negative economic factors would seem “likely to hold down” capital spending as opposed to the milder phrase, “poised to dampen”. This may seem like petty quibbling, but the Fed is extremely deliberate in its use of language. The Fed did say that consumption and housing expenditures held up “reasonably well”, but they said the same thing last time. They also repeated verbatim that “the risks are weighed mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future”. The Fed’s action leaves Wall Street between a rock and a hard place. The statement gave investors everything they wanted, both the 50 basis point cut and the promise of more to come, but only at the expense of an economy that is also weaker than desired. This means more corporate cutbacks in capital spending, employment and general expenses and the probability of undermining consumer spending on goods, services and housing. On the other hand, we have to question whether the “Street” really wants an economic rebound. Last week when the strong April retail sales numbers were released, the market tanked because investors assumed that it would mean the end of the interest rate cuts. The market wants both the rate cuts and an economic rebound at the same time, and this is almost certain not to happen. If one of these outcomes alone won’t suffice, where can the market go?
We see little on the horizon to propel the market forward from this point. The Fed has reduced rates by 250 basis points over three and one-half months, and a June cut is partially discounted as well. The market is losing momentum after a fairly strong counter-trend rally, and is selling at 27 times a shaky 2001 estimate with plenty of disappointing news ahead. Investors will now start looking ahead to the next earnings pre-announcement season and we don’t think they will like what they hear. Also lurking in the background is a sea of global problems with the potential for a financial crisis in any number of places. In our view, the risks remain heavily on the downside.
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