interessante rechnung...
Maybe this is a redundant topic, but has anyone here talked about the Balance Sheet posted on the FDIC site for WMB? Specifically the $13.7B "Unproven" liability? Funny, isn't that about the figure that WMI has sued the FDIC for?
Here's the link:
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/fail...Reality check for all here -
Keep your eyes on the following:
1) $4B Deposit suit (WMI vs JPMC)
2) $13.7B+ suit against FDIC ($3.9B here is pegged against the various Preferred (I,J,L,M,N Series) shares allegedly converted on an "exchange event" from bond holders in WMB, so $3.9B in the $13.7B figure won't be counted as an Asset in my below analysis)
3) $2-3B NOL
4) $2.9B (Remaining Assets on WMI Balance Sheet as per Apr/09 MOR; 6.9B - $4B cash in point #1)
IMHO,
Point #1 above is a no-brainer and belongs to WMI.
Item #2 should also be an easy win for WMI so long as there is a documentation trail proving ownership of assets. Except for the $3.9B preferred conversion, which may be subject to interpretation from a legal standpoint. Assuming WMI wins the point on the $3.9B preferreds, that still cuts the $13.7B to $9.8B.
As for #3 above (NOL), I believe it will, at a minimum, be pro-rated between WMI and JPMC @ 75% and 25% respectively. That puts the NOL for WMI at $1.5-2.25B.
Point #4 is all remaining assets that are assumed to be current "book value" so that figure is likely to stay the same or go higher if market conditions stabilize or improve.
Estimated total on assets:
1) $4B cash (WMI vs JPMC)
2) $9.8B settlement with FDIC
3) $1.5-2.25B from NOL
4) $2.9B Remaining Assets on MOR
Total Assets around $18.2B (Using low end of NOL)
IMHO, If all four Asset points above are very likely the plausible outcome of the WMI saga, then the $18.2B Asset figure will only go upwards pending the other softer more subjective legal issues on the table.
On the Liability side, keep note of the following:
1) Current MOR (from 4/09) shows $8.3B in Liabilities.
2) $13B JPMC counter-claim against WMI & FDIC (again, most here have argued that JPMC doesn't have much to stand on based on the filing arguments by JPMC)
3) $10B+ claim by IRS (which most here understand there is no basis for this claim by the IRS as per WMI legal counsel)
In summary, if Liability points #2 and #3 are dismissed by our US legal system, the current Liabilities and Preferreds on WMI balance sheet would negate out about $11.7B from assets (18.2B - (8.3B + 3.4B)) leaving $6.5B for commons. The only variable that may reduce that figure are "other" claims filed in WMIs BK case, which I'm assuming the MOR report from 4/30 has already included. But one can't solely rely on that MOR, as it is unaudited and prone to be corrected as more data is gathered from the BK courts. Assuming $6.5B (+/-) is left for commons, with 1.7B shares outstanding, puts commons at around $3.80/sh. Funny how that is about the share price of commons on 9/1/08, just prior to the major financial collapse.
One last question here, does it really matter if WMI is acquired by JPMC or another third party, dissolved in Ch7, or re-emerges from BK as a going concern, based on my analysis above? I think not...
This is all MY logical food-for-thought....Let the bashing/trashing of my analysis commence!
Peace to all WMI longs here!
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/...p;mid=147247&tof=4&frt=2 -----------
An der Börse sind 2 mal 2 niemals 4, sondern 5 minus 1.
Man muß nur die Nerven haben, das minus 1 auszuhalten.