Following the solid Q3 release, which was c. 11% above our expectations for
the top line and c. 18% above for EBITDA, we have revised our model, leading
us to lift 2022E EPS by c. 14%. However, in 2023 CLIQ Digital will need to make
higher investments, while the potential impact of a recession on its customer
base remains hard to quantify. Given the lack of visibility, we maintain our
Hold rating and adjust our TP to EUR26.5.
Key findings
Management confirmed the 2022 outlook despite a stronger-than-expected Q3.
Despite entering a new region, we believe 2023 will mark a deceleration in sales
growth, as the price-sensitive consumers targeted by CLIQ Digital are likely to be
the most impacted by an inflationary environment.
Deconstructing the forecasts
In Q4, we expect EUR83m of sales (+78% YOY) and an EBITDA margin of 15.5%.
Our higher 2022E EPS stems mostly from slightly lower D&A and a higher financial
result than expected (notably thanks to forex).
The visibility for 2023 remains limited and the company will need to make higher
investments to promote the CLIQ.de platform and to accelerate its expansion into
the LatAm region. The tailwind from the US dollar will also fade. We revise
downward both our 2023E sales growth from 21% to 15% and our EBITDA margin
estimate from 14.7% to 14.5%.
2022 EPS: 4.64
2023 EPS: 4.68
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