macSteve0702 : News
Dann noch diese News:
"We are very pleased with the breakthrough results from our clinical studies," said Caroline Hadfield, President of Aprinnova. "This is a great example of how clean ingredients made from our science platform and naturally sourced from sugarcane combined with our scientific approach to formulations can lead to disruption in key markets. We are very excited to deliver what consumers are seeking and support the brands that are committed to delivering high efficacy and sustainability at an accessible value for consumers."
kaktus7 : Habe das transscript vom cc gelesen
Und wenn die Zulassung für den Trägerstoff für Impfungen schnell kommt, und da könnte Corona hilfreich sein, gibts noch positive Überraschungen, was Umsatz und Gewinn angeht.
Die Produkte sind gefragt. Absatz wächst schnell. anteilige Kosten sinken.
Wird gut, aber dauert noch etwas.
macSteve0702 : Trend
Man hat noch immer gewaltige Schulden, doch die Margen (60%) sind sehr erfreulich.
Man müsste den Umsatz nochmals verdoppeln, dann ist man profitabel.
Trotzdem, bis Jahresende sehe ich hier eine sehr gute Entwicklung des Geschäftes.
macSteve0702 : Artikel
Wie Tesla hat Amyris eine große Short-Position, die 28% seines Floats entspricht. Es ist auf eine massive Short-Deckung ausgelegt, die auf sich schnell verbessernden Finanzdaten basiert.
Wie Tesla hat Amyris einen dominanten Vorsprung in schnell wachsenden Megamärkten mit starken Marken, patentierten Technologien, Prozessen und einem mehrjährigen Vorsprung gegenüber der Konkurrenz.
Wie bei Tesla könnte die Aktie, wenn Amyris seine Bilanz überfinanziert und ein positives Ergebnis erzielt, eine Umstellung auf das Dreifache oder Vierfache einleiten. Das jüngste 8-K deutet darauf hin, dass eine Finanzierung unmittelbar bevorsteht.
Mit einem Produktumsatz von über 50% pro Jahr und einer Bruttomarge von 50-60% sollte Amyris bis zum vierten Quartal ein positives EBITDA und bis Mitte des Jahres 2021 ein positives Nettoergebnis erzielen.
Der Umsatz könnte von der Prognose für 2020 von 220 Mio. USD auf 600 Mio. USD im Jahr 2022 steigen. Der Gewinn pro Aktie im Jahr 2022 könnte auf 0,58 USD / Aktie (unversteuert) und 0,46 USD / Aktie (voll besteuert) steigen.
Vor sieben Jahren entdeckte ich Tesla ( TSLA ), besuchte das Werk in Tesla Fremont und machte eine Probefahrt, die zeigte, warum das Auto ein überzeugender Kauf war. Ich kaufte die Aktie jedoch erst später bei 129 bis 180 USD, als ich prognostizieren konnte, dass Tesla einen positiven Cashflow haben wird. Ich glaube, dass das Timing für Amyris ( AMRS ) heute ähnlich ist.
Amyris ($ 3,36) ist Tesla ($ 820) bemerkenswert ähnlich
Erhöhte Short-Positionen schaffen eine Chance.
derhexer : der SA Artikel kommt von einem Autor
Die Übersetzung, die du da reingestellt hast - ist aber eher irreführend.
deshalb hier das original - Quelle: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4350870-why-amyris-be-next-tesla
Like Tesla, Amyris has a large short position, equal to 28% of its float. It's set up for a massive short-covering based on rapidly improving financials.
Like Tesla, Amyris has a dominant lead in rapidly expanding mega-markets, with strong brands/superior new products based on science, patented technologies, processes, and a multiyear lead on the competition.
Like Tesla, when Amyris overfunds its balance sheet and reaches positive earnings, the stock could initiate a move to triple or quadruple. The recent 8-K suggests a funding is imminent.
Growing product revenues over 50%/year and with 50-60% gross margins, Amyris should reach positive EBITDA by Q4 and net earnings by midyear 2021.
Revenues could grow from 2020 guidance of $220 million to $600 million in 2022. EPS in 2022 could grow to $0.58/share (untaxed) and $0.46/share (fully taxed).
Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Graham Tanaka as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA PREMIUM. Click here to find out more »
Seven years ago I discovered Tesla (TSLA), visited the Tesla Fremont plant, and did a test drive that showed why the car was a compelling buy. However, I didn't buy the stock until later at $129-$180 when I could forecast that Tesla would have positive cash flow and begin rapid earnings growth. I believe the timing is similar for Amyris (AMRS) today.
Amyris ($3.36) Is Remarkably Similar to Tesla ($820)
Elevated short positions create an opportunity.
The Amyris short position was very high at 28% of the float as of mid May. Tesla's short position was 30% of the float in mid-September, just before they reported their first strong earnings Qtr. Tesla had already fully funded its balance sheet, so when it reported earnings surprises, its stock more than tripled with the shorts having lost $ billions and the short position is down to 11% of float. In its Q1 release, Amyris has reiterated its strategic priority of "reduced balance sheet leverage," to be "fully funded to deliver growth" and to "deliver on a path to sustained cash generation."
In the May 4th 8-K, Amyris implied a near term financing when it restructured its convertible debt and stated "$16 million would be due on or before the earlier of May 31, 2020 and the date on which the Company receives at least $50 million ... in an offering of securities."
Skepticism over its balance sheet has contributed to the short position, so if Amyris can raise new capital and make significant progress toward positive cash flow, a period of short covering could begin.
I have recommended Amyris do an "overfunding" by raising significantly more capital than its near term needs. If Amyris is able to persuade insiders to exercise their $2.87 warrants eight months ahead of expiration for $45 million in fresh cash and raise an additional $55 million from new equity investors, the $100 million total capital raise would provide a substantial liquidity cushion even after paying off $45 million of convertibles.
In its last quarterly conference call, Amyris indicated it expects its first quarter of positive EBITDA by Q4 of this year. Progress toward that goal in the next two quarters could attract new institutional investors. The short positions merely create the opportunity for outsized gains. Tesla and its investors took advantage of that opportunity, and Amyris investors could have a similar opportunity today.
Balance sheet stressed, exacerbated by rapid 70-100% growth demands for capital, followed by financings to get to positive cash flow.
On Jan. 31, 2020, an Amyris equity financing paid down $70 million of debt and raised $42 million of cash which along with cost controls the company said would take them to "sustainable positive cash generation." The Amyris stock has risen 31% since the financing when the stock was at $2.56 share. The "overfunding" mentioned above would provide the company with optionality to make the best decisions on new products, new markets and new capacity - and eliminate uncertainty about Amyris' ability to fund its many opportunities for future growth.
Tesla went through the same capital needs as a startup and then moved into a 100%/year growth mode which was a high-class problem that demanded enormous capital. Tesla raised enough capital to get to positive cash flow and then the stock began to take off in October when it surprised Wall Street with a solidly profitable Q3 2019.
Based on recent strength in its newest Consumer brands, particularly its new Pipette family-friendly hand sanitizer, I believe that Amyris can get to positive cash flow by Q4 2020 if not sooner. Positive earnings should follow quickly given its high incremental profit margins and the hiring of an experienced CFO that I believe will more efficiently restructure the balance sheet and institute working capital and other cost efficiencies.
Application of scientific "First Principles" to combine known science with new science for disruptive, revolutionary solutions.
Amyris has combined a First Principles deep science and fermentation platform with new biotechnology techniques and analytics to create a fortress portfolio with 3 layers of patented processes, patented yeast strains and patented molecules. This has established a multi-year lead vs. other synthetic biology and specialty chemicals competitors. Amyris applies biotechnology, robotics, automation and machine learning to design new strains of bakers' yeast to more efficiently produce a desired molecule as a byproduct of consuming sugar cane.
Tesla uses its First Principles approach with electric motors and batteries and adds innovative science, electronics, software, design, patents, mass EV (electric vehicle) production, a Supercharger Network and millions of miles of data storage to create a 5-year lead vs. its competitors.
Address multiple billion dollar markets for multiple decades of growth.
Although Amyris has an almost unlimited number of existing known molecules that it could address, it only needs to target a few well-chosen large product categories to deliver profitable strong double-digit growth for 10 and even 20 years. I have seen this movie before with AFLAC (AFL), Intel (INTC), Qualcomm (QCOM) and Apple (AAPL) building off proprietary platforms for decades of Mega Compound Growth? in very large markets. The current Amyris projected end markets include Skincare ($83 Bil. market), Flavors & Fragrances ($48 Bil.), Baby Products ($17 Bil.), Alternative Sweeteners ($9 Bil.) and Legal Cannabinoids ($66 Bil.).
Admittedly, most of my quadruple in Tesla happened only in the last few months after holding it for a few years, but I believe there are at least 10 more years of upside for Tesla as it rolls out more electric vehicles, more plants worldwide and new solar roofing and power storage products. EVs represent a disruptive transformation in transport that will take over a decade to complete, and solar roof/power storage will become equally disruptive as Tesla's cost and efficiency of solar cells/batteries continue to improve. Tesla has just begun production in Shanghai and is building a another GigaFactory in Germany. The global auto market is in the $ Trillions, the solar market over $50 billion and nascent power storage market is over $1.5 billion.
derhexer : Teil 2 - siehe vorheriges Post
Both Amyris and Tesla have dominant shares of their more narrowly defined innovative sub-segments of their markets, "synthetic biology" and electric vehicles (EVs). Ironically, both companies have very small shares of their traditional broadly-defined markets (specialty chemicals and autos) but this has allowed them to gain an early lead in their fermentation-derived synthetic biotech and EV markets, respectively, generating rapid sales growth and dominance with surprisingly little competition from traditional industry participants who are technologically late to the market.
Both companies have already also established strong global positions and intellectual property in these technically demanding segments, not an easy undertaking. Large market shares and scale typically result in higher margins and the ability to support greater R&D and sales & marketing spend, growth from market share gains and a greatly enhanced likelihood of long-term success.
Already well up the production learning curve as a low-cost producer.
Amyris already has 10 diverse products in production generating revenues at low production costs vs. competition. This broad experience base will reduce production costs and execution risk for new molecules going forward. Reportedly, one private synthetic biology competitor, Gingko, has only 2 molecules in production.
Tesla has successfully ramped 3 distinct EV models over the last 7 years, developing and perfecting new EV production processes along the way, entering the most lucrative markets first. Its most important 4th model, the Model Y, a mid-size SUV, just began to ramp but got shutdown by COVID-19. With 70% of its parts in common with the Model 3 sedan and benefitting from Model 3 production best practices plus new design efficiencies and attractive features, the Model Y should enjoy higher gross margins. Meanwhile Mercedes and other competitors continue to struggle going up their production learning curves and with less efficient batteries in their EVs.
Extensive R&D pipelines point to over a decade of growth.
Amyris has researched 100s of molecules and generally maintains a fresh R&D pipeline of 20 of its most promising molecules. Amyris also has a special 20 cannabinoid molecule development program with a partner committed to pay Amyris up to $300 million in potential cash milestones. These cannabinoid molecules and the use of Amyris' new no-calorie PureCane sweetener for beverages and baked items offer perhaps the greatest upside potential but are not very large near term as they have just begun to contribute to revenues. Separate from the 20-molecule cannabinoid partner, Amyris is moving to incorporate its CBD and CBG cannabinoids into beverages/foods with established multinational partners and can be expected to add them to its own branded line of skin care products which could address the multi-billion dollar CBD lotions market.
Tesla has a pipeline of future products addressing the highest profit pool markets in transportation: Pickup Trucks, Semi-trucks and a new Sports Car. Tesla has just re-started production of its new Model Y crossover SUV and I believe it could double Tesla's revenues and earnings in the next few years. The widely acclaimed revolutionary stainless steel Cybertruck may be accelerated from its 2022 launch date and it could dominate the high profit margin pickup truck market due to its superior features and functions.
Superior products readily perceived by consumers create brand loyalty.
Amyris is delivering noticeably better performing and more pure products that already exist in nature. Instead of trying to extract materials from nature's soup which usually comes with impurities and can be very expensive to extract, Amyris identifies the desired molecule, then reprograms bakers' yeast DNA to directly produce the target molecule in its purest form as a byproduct when the yeast consumes sugar cane. Amyris then takes multiple steps to purify the product further. For example, Amyris' Reb M no-calorie PureCane sweetener is 95%+ pure and does not include the bitter aftertaste from residual impurities in the competing Stevia leaf extract versions of the Reb M sweetener.
The world's leading beauty cosmetic formulations used to include 2-3% squalene to help the skin maintain its moisture, youthful flexibility and smoothness. However, squalene is very expensive as it is extracted expensively from shark's liver and is not very stable. Most now use Amyris' close cousin, Squalane which is equally effective, has a longer shelf life and a lower cost. Amyris found that Squalane was so effective, it developed its own clean beauty line of Biossance skin care products with up to 100% Squalane. Biossance products are noticeably superior to consumers which is why it is the fastest growing line at Sephora and is growing over 100%/year with little advertising.
Addressing the rapidly growing cannabinoid market, Amyris has said it can produce CBD that is more pure and at a fraction of the cost of farm grown CBD currently on the market which is extracted from hemp and is less pure and can be inconsistent.
Tesla's vehicles have noticeably superior driving performance inherent with electric motors that deliver instant torque and rapid acceleration with far fewer moving parts and much lower maintenance costs. Tesla has infused its products with technology and software that make them twice as safe and more valuable to consumers than internal combustion vehicles - and consumers can sense this easily from a test drive with no need for expensive advertising.
Will benefit from repetitive "Moore's Law" improvements ahead.
Just as semiconductors double the number of transistors on a chip every 2-3 years to deliver more value, Amyris continuously improves design cycle times and can create improved yeast strains resulting in higher yields at lower costs and improved purity with each new strain generation. This results in noticeably better performing products and cheaper production costs for existing molecules over time as well as for newly introduced molecules every year.
Similarly, Tesla continuously improves the design, batteries, electronics, sensors, software and materials in its vehicles, as reflected in what I estimate was a 50% reduction in the cost of its batteries over the last 4 years. Tesla downloads improvements to its customers' vehicles every few months - for free, and I believe Tesla will keep upgrading its newest vehicles to make them "faster, better, cheaper" than the competition every year. It is important to understand that both companies use reiterative process improvements that create more value at lower costs every design cycle. I describe this process in my book, "Digital Deflation?." It has fueled Intel for over 30 years and should do the same for Tesla and Amyris.
Creating brands that connote high quality, clean and environmentally responsible products that resonate with consumers, particularly Millennials.
Amyris delivers cleaner and more pure sugar cane plant-derived versions of molecules already existing in nature. Tesla is delivering superior versions of clean (zero carbon emission) transport where consumers can clearly see the acceleration, pleasure to drive, lower maintenance, power regeneration and fuel cost savings vs. carbon producing Internal Combustion Engine vehicles. I believe that both companies will be able to command brand loyalty, higher market shares, sustainably higher profitability and higher market valuations over the long term as consumers and investors develop confidence in quality brands that help preserve nature and the planet.
Both companies have a history of falling short of optimistic forecasts.
Three years ago I encouraged Tesla to reign in Elon Musk's financial forecasts to levels they could beat every quarter and it appears they have been hugely successful. I have also encouraged Amyris to be more conservative in their financial guidance. If they are equally successful, it would build investor confidence in the company and remove another argument made by short sellers.
With very rapid double-digit revenue growth rates making inroads into mature industries and without long histories of profitability, both companies have been difficult for investors to value.
Tesla has been compared to GM (GM) and Ford (F) but I believe that its innovation and continuous improvement make it more comparable to Apple. Over the next 5 years Tesla is expected to grow earnings 35%/year or 3 to 4 times faster than Apple's 12% projected growth rate and deserves a higher P/E ratio. Amyris does not have a public comparable.
Amyris reported $152 million revenues for 2019 and yet has a public market value of only $547 Million and with net debt of $193 million (March 31, 2020), it has an enterprise value of $740 million or only 5 times last year's revenues. In contrast, private synthetic biology competitor Gingko Bioworks raised equity capital last year at a $4 billion market value which was at a valuation of 50 times its estimated revenues of $80 million last year. On 2020 guided revenues of $220 million, Amyris is valued at only 3.4 times revenues. I believe the Amyris business model is superior to Gingko's in that it leverages its new science plus old science solutions to introduce its own differentiated and branded products in certain end markets (B to C) as well as molecules to sell to partners as ingredients to develop and sell (B to B).
Amyris has successfully entered the fast growing, premium Clean Beauty skin treatment market with "Biossance," the Clean Baby market with "Pipette" and the pure no-calorie natural sweetener market with "PureCane." Biossance's closest Clean Beauty cosmetics competitor, Drunk Elephant, was acquired in 2019 by Shiseido (OTCPK:SSDOY) for $845 million or roughly 6.5 times revenues of an estimated $120-130 million. Applying a 6.5 price-to-revenue multiple on estimated Clean Beauty net revenues of $55 million for Amyris in 2020 would imply that Amyris' Biossance Clean Beauty business alone would have an implied value of $357 million versus the Amyris total company enterprise value of $740 million.
In two years, I believe that Amyris will be valued at a premium multiple of earnings which I conservatively estimate for 2022 at $0.58/share (untaxed) on $600 million of revenues.
How Amyris Differs From Tesla
Amyris is much smaller than Tesla, with about $220 million in revenues estimated for 2020 vs. Tesla's $27 Billion. Although Amyris is unlikely to catch up to Tesla in revenues anytime soon, we believe both companies are likely to grow to become considerably larger and more profitable in the next 5-10 years.
In Q3 2019 Tesla became surprisingly profitable and Amyris has yet to do so - importance of high incremental margins.
While we cannot know which quarter Amyris will turn a profit, I believe it will be in the next 3 or 4 quarters. When it does, Amyris has much higher gross margins than Tesla which will allow Amyris to grow net income much faster than sales once it bursts through break even. Amyris gross margins are over 60% for its Branded products and 25-50% for its Ingredients vs. a 20-25% gross margin for Tesla.
With high gross margins and revenue growth of over 50%/year, when Amyris revenues are large enough to cover its fixed costs, each incremental dollar of sales will add a higher incremental operating margin and lead to faster earnings growth. (For example, If Amyris delivers $50 million or 8% of upside surprise to estimated revenues of $600 million in 2022, I estimate the boost to EPS at a 44% incremental operating margin would add about 9 cents/share or 15% higher EPS, which would take untaxed EPS to $0.67/share in 2022.)
Tesla has already implemented expense control and capital efficiency programs. Amyris initiated expense controls last year and has yet to start major capital efficiency programs.
Companies undergoing rapid 100%/year growth can grow so fast that they become capital inefficient relative to self-funding their rapid growth rates. In its early unprofitable years Tesla was not able to self-finance its 70-100% growth rates. However, Tesla was able to buy the Fremont plant for pennies on the dollar and obtained low cost government financing/tax incentives to aid in its crucial start up years.
In the last two years, Tesla announced and instituted disciplined expense controls which have contributed to its profitability. More under-appreciated, Tesla has moved its Model 3 into a "negative working capital model" as championed by Dell (DELL) where it pays suppliers after it receives revenues upfront from customers. The upcoming Model Y should be more capital efficient as margins should be higher on higher selling prices. I expect that Tesla will be able to continue to obtain government assistance for future plants and together with greater efficiencies from scale, Tesla should be able to self-finance its future growth and generate significant free cash flow.
Amyris is a bit behind Tesla but I believe on the same path towards instituting cost efficiencies and greater capital efficiency to be able to self-finance its rapid future growth. I am encouraged that Amyris announced "an expected 2020 reduction in operating expense spend over 2019" as part of its effort to "achieve sustainable positive cash generation from our operations." Amyris mentioned on its last conference call that it has achieved 5 quarters in a row of scale, technical and process improvements and "will look to continue additional improvements" to its operations.
It is important to be aware that Amyris' 60% gross margins give the company a greater probability of achieving the 50% return on equity needed to self-finance a 50% growth rate long term (DuPont Model). Amyris achieved a 50% gross margin in 2019 and may reach 60%+ in 2020.
Due to COVID-19, ironically, most of Amyris' $90 million of Consumer sales this year are now being executed online which is similar to the Dell negative working capital model that produces net cash at time of orders, 30 days before they pay suppliers. Capital efficiency would benefit further to the extent revenue includes a richer mix of income from any new partnerships or other royalty-based arrangements which would require very little capital. In addition, any further debt paydowns will reduce high cost interest expense and accelerate time to profitability.
Beyond the next decade, Amyris' upside may be more open ended than Tesla's.
The Amyris fermentation science platform can be applied to a virtually unlimited number of molecules and end markets leaving its potential for new products virtually unbounded. In addition, Amyris has become more adept at finding new applications for its existing molecules. E.g., On March 6th, Amyris announced a "Major Breakthrough in CBD Delivery" which underscores the potential for Amyris to make science-based discoveries that could be disruptive to existing markets. A study by Nikkol Chemical demonstrated that Amyris' Squalane delivers 10-40 times the amount of CBD to the epidermis and delivers CBD faster than other currently used CBD oil carriers:
Figure 1. CBD Measured in Skin Cell Fraction of the EpiSkin Model
Table 1. Amount of CBD Delivered for Each Carrier Oil at Designed Time Points
We believe this new use of Squalane represents a significant opportunity for Amyris to sell Squalane fairly soon as a carrier for a multi-billion dollar existing market for topical CBD lotions.
Amyris also recently announced that Squalane's close cousin Squalene molecule is a superior "adjuvant" for vaccines and is being evaluated by pharmaceutical companies developing the standard annual flu vaccine and possibly as an adjuvant for a COVID-19 vaccine, though the later would depend on if one of their partners develops a successful vaccine. Amyris' squalene already has a proven track record as an adjuvant for Artemisinin malaria vaccine which has saved many lives worldwide.
Amyris can respond to new opportunities quickly and in 2 weeks developed a Squalane-supplemented Pipette family friendly hand sanitizer that offsets the harsh effects of alcohol by moisturizing the skin. Management said on its Q1 conference call it expects to do over $30 million in sales this year. I believe the phenomenal ramp of the hand sanitizer sales has already helped compress the maiden launch of the entire Pipette Baby branded product line from two years to two quarters.
Tesla, as of now is focused only on electric vehicles, solar power and power storage. Although we can rely on Elon Musk to think outside the box, we don't know what other new products might be coming down the road. We do know that Tesla is investing in full-self-drive, robo-taxis, utility scale power management and auto insurance.
Risks of Amyris Not Following In Tesla's Footsteps
Every opportunity comes with risks, and Amyris has several.
Liquidity risk: The greatest risk is that Amyris is not able to raise equity capital in the next few weeks or months to provide a comfortable margin of safety on its balance sheet to be able to pursue its many and growing new product opportunities. I believe that given the better than expected growth of its Consumer Brands and with so many attractive new growth opportunities, Amyris will be appealing to new equity investors.
Operating risks in a COVID-19 economy: Amyris has been able to produce products and build inventory in a difficult economy and it is actually benefitting from stronger than expected online demand for its products which carries higher margins and negative working capital. The new Pipette family friendly, moisturizing hand sanitizer is sold out, and based on use by my family and friends, I believe it will become a Best Seller in the months ahead.
Risk of further dilution: Amyris has been plagued by having to do repeated rounds of financings with warrant dilution and convertibles that create short selling opportunities. The earnings estimates in this report assumes the issuance of about 16 million shares to raise $55 million of new equity capital. This dilution will be offset by about 7 million warrants that are due to expire this month for a net dilution of about 6.6%. If the company raises more equity due to strong demand, so much the better in terms of having more cash cushion and more capital to accelerate growth.
Management and culture: Amyris' recent hiring of a very experienced CFO with multinational operating and financial experience rounds out a team of managers that have already demonstrated major accomplishments in Basic Research, R&D, Product Development, Operations, Consumer Brand Building and creating valuable partnerships. Tesla has had a more challenging, fast moving culture of rapid change and doing things differently and has been fabulously successful but with some turnover. Amyris has had a more academic and collegial culture. Both are very focused on making the planet a cleaner and better place and will be rewarded by their consumers for delivering on those goals.
The triggers for the beginning of a triple or quadruple in Amyris are most likely to be an "overfunding" equity capital raise, plus Amyris' first positive cash flow and profitable quarters. However, in the next 12 months, positive surprises might also come from greater than expected pipette branded family-friendly hand sanitizer demand, continued rapid growth at Biossance, commercial orders for producing CBD, CGB, and other cannabinoids, the use of squalane as a carrier for CBD lotions and the use of squalene as an adjuvant for delivering the common flu vaccines, and possibly for COVID-19 vaccines. The next three years will be driven by rapid revenue and earnings growth with purecane sweetener, pipette, cannabinoids, and other new molecules contributing in 2022 and beyond.
While the similarities between Amyris and Tesla are remarkable, the differences relate mostly to timing and size. I believe that a possible additional equity "overfunding" which I and others have recommended would remove any doubt about Amyris' finances, provide important optionality for its next phase of profitable growth and become a trigger for investors to focus on the company's tremendous future potential.
Tesla saw the beginning of a tripling of its stock price immediately after it reported its first big earnings surprise last October and then delivered two more quarters of better-than-expected earnings. We know that Amyris enjoys gross margins that are higher than Tesla's, so once Amyris becomes profitable, incremental earnings growth will be very rapid.
The timing of Amyris crossing breakeven is difficult to predict. However, I am confident that if Amyris does a new equity financing and if it can continue to grow revenues 50% per year, maintain gross margins over 60% and achieve working capital and operating cost efficiencies that in two years, by 2022, the company could deliver revenues of $600 million (up 57% vs. $381 million in 2021) and estimated untaxed earnings of $0.58/share fully diluted. Using a 21% tax rate, estimated fully taxed, fully diluted earnings would come in at $0.46/share in 2022.
In 2023, just three years out from now, revenues could come in at $864 million (up 44% from 2022), estimated EPS at a 10% tax rate at $1.07/share and estimated fully taxed earnings at $0.94/share. With a fully funded balance sheet and rapid revenue and earnings growth, Amyris should attract more institutional investors, Sell Side coverage and appropriate price discovery. With a premium P/E valuation of 25 times earnings, Amyris' stock could appreciate to $11.50/share on fully taxed EPS of $0.46 just two years out. This would be more than a triple, similar to Tesla's 6 month move following its 3rd Quarter 2019 earnings beat. Today, Tesla is trading at 70 times next year's earnings estimates (2021).
Looking out one more year to 2023, Amyris could possibly double again to around $23.50/share if it were to be valued at 25 times fully taxed, fully diluted EPS of $0.94/share in 2023. So, in three short years, Amyris shareholders could enjoy a triple, then a double and then be holding shares of a company that could deliver 30%+/year compound growth in earnings for many years to come.
Hopefully, Amyris will do an "overfunding" of its balance sheet very soon. Then it just needs to execute on its abundant opportunities.
Disclosure: I am/we are long AMRS, TSLA. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: This report is not, and should not be construed as, a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial products. It has been prepared by me solely from publicly available information. The information contained herein is believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified. I make no guarantee, representation or warranty, and accept no responsibility or liability whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness or appropriateness of such information or for any loss or damage arising from the use or further communication of this report or any part of it. Information contained herein may not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Opinions reflected in this report are subject to change without notice. This report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for, tax, legal or investment advice. The report has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons who receive it. The securities and investments related to the securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Readers should independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and seek the advice of a financial adviser before making any investment or entering into any transaction in relation to the securities mentioned in this report.
derhexer : aber in der sache stimmen wir überein
#amyris hat über die letzten anderthalb jahrzehnte eine schlüsseltechnologie für die zukunft entwickelt und jetzt marktreif bekommen (daher der vergleich zu tesla)
#die umsatzsteigerungen bewegen sich in einem meistens hohen zweistelligen oft sogar dreistelligen bereich
#bruttomarge bei über 60%
#die shortquote liegt bei fast einem drittel der am markt verfügbaren aktien - grund: in den letzten jahrzehnten hat man mehrere fehlentscheidungen getroffen (insb. kraftstoffersatz) - und konnte den zeitplan nicht immer einhalten - daher einige enttäuschungen nach zahlen - unsicherheit - inzwischen: wirklich sehr solide zahlen.
#neuer CfO der offenbar wirklich sein handwerk versteht
#hoher anteil institutioneller investoren - auch unterschiedliche, sodass ein buyout möglicherweise nicht ansteht
#eigenes werk soll 2021 an den start gehen (derzeit lizenzfertigung)
#mehrere sehr aussichtsreiche projekte (impfstoffträger, cannabis oel etc)
#positives ebita in q4 erreichbar und in aussicht gestellt
wenn die wachstumsraten beibehalten werden (und derzeit beschleunigen sie sich eher) - ist der laden ein kandidat für den 10fachen wert. das würde wohl am deutschen markt nicht so laufen - aber an der nasdaq werden diese preise bezahlt. wenn man sich den hype um andere zukunftstechnologien ansieht (etwa ballard und co) - dann ist amyris sogar konkurrenzlos billig. und diese einsicht könnte sich demnächst durchsetzen.
es muss die tage noch eine finanzierung eingetütet werden - das könnte kurzfristig noch druck auf den kurs bringen - aber langfristig sehe ich hier großes potential.
macSteve0702 : @derHexer
macSteve0702 : CBD Potenzial
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Wenn das Unternehmen ein Patent für eine überlegene Methode zur Bereitstellung von CBD erhalten kann, könnte dies ein wesentliches Unterscheidungsmerkmal sein. Dies wird dem Unternehmen nicht nur helfen, Meilensteine im Zusammenhang mit seiner Vereinbarung mit Lavvan zu erreichen, sondern könnte auch zu weiteren Möglichkeiten innerhalb der Cannabis Industrie führen. Die Möglichkeit qualitativ hochwertige Cannabisprodukte herzustellen ist eine Unterscheidungsmerkmal um sich von seinen Mitbewerbern abzuheben und dabei einen höheren Preis und bessere Margen zu rechtfertigen.
derhexer : interessant wird ja sein
derzeit scheinen viele produktlinien zu laufen wie geschnitten brot - biossance und der sweetener ... dazu das desinfektionsmittel - richtig interessant wird es erst wenn dieses cannabis zeugs oder impfstoffingrediens dazu kommen ...
dann werden die feuchten phantasien einiger boardmembers in usa-foren vielleicht im ansatz erreicht - da werden astronomische kursziele umhergeschmissen...
macSteve0702 : @derHexer
Richtig, bin ja hauptsächlich in den US Foren. Von himmelhochjauchzend bis zu tode betrübt, alles dabei.
Das CBD Patent hätte schon enormes Potenzial. Ebenso wie eine Rolle beim Impfstoff zu spielen.
Zumindest hatten wir jetzt einmal einen Ausbruch, mal sehen ob jetzt News folgen um dem Substanz zu geben.
derhexer : wir sind uns vollkommen einig
interessant wird jetzt - wie wird die frage des zusätzlichen finanzbedarfes genau gelöst? gibt es gaaaaanz billige shares - oder gibt es eine positiv zu interpretierende lösung - langweilig wird es einem nicht bei dem wert. wenn die eine verträgliche lösung finden, ist sehr viel luft nach oben - dann scheint mir der vergleich zu anderen highflyern auch absolut gerechtfertigt - keine abstrakten hoffnungen, sondern ein sehr konkretes skalierbares geschäftsmodell für einen echten zukunftsmarkt.
derhexer : wenn auch nur in geringer höhe ...
derhexer : krass
bauwi : Eintrittskarte für die Rakete heute gekauft!
Armin hat eine ziemlich ausführliche ANALYSE auf Youtube gestern Abend zum Besten gegeben.
Hatte Amyris vor Wochen schon auf meiner Agenda, doch zur Umsetzung kam es dann leider doch nicht.
Da standen sie noch bei 2,50 ?.
Die Company ist ein ziemlich heißer Betrieb. Wenn keine Fehler in der Finanzierung gemacht wird, und die Ausrichtung der Anwendungen breit angelegt wird, kann es nur eine Richtung geben.
Mein Plan - ich werde steig aufstocken. Egal zu welchem Preis!
Die Freiheit des Menschen liegt nicht darin, daß er tun kann, was er will, sondern das er nicht tun muß, was er nicht will.
Die Freiheit des Menschen liegt nicht darin, daß er tun kann, was er will, sondern das er nicht tun muß, was er nicht will.