Wie befürchtet bleibt Fortis auf einem vergifteten Kreditportfolio (6,8 Mrd.) sitzen. Das Versicherungsgeschäft ist fast nichts (1,5 Mrd.) wert. Das Bargeld, das Fortis erhält für den Verkauf von Geschäftsanteilen, ist nur virtuell, weil es zum Kauf des Kreditportfolios dient. Es bleiben noch 100 Mio. Bargeld übrig, also: 6,8 + 1,5 + 0,1 = 8,4 Mrd. insgesamt, dann kommt man auf ca. 3,50 Euro pro Aktie. Davon muß man noch einen Abschlag für die Risiken des Kreditportfolios und für die mangelnden Zukunftsaussichten abziehen, macht dann wohl deutlich unter 3 Euro, vielleicht auch nur 2 Euro. Ich glaube auch kaum, daß man aus diesem verbleibenden Sammelsurium je wieder ein funktionierendes, profitables Unternehmen machen kann. Aber Glückwunsch an BNP Paribas, sie haben ein gutes Geschäft zu Lasten der Fortis-Aktionäre abgeschlossen.
§06.10.2008 - 15:19 Uhr
=DJ 2nd UPDATE: Holders Get Little As Fortis' Grand Dreams End
(
Recasts and adds detail and CEO comment.)
By Robin van Daalen
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--Shareholders of Dutch-Belgian Fortis NV (30086.AE) are left with just a fraction of what once was an ambitious financial services group with aspirations of becoming a global leader in banking and insurance.
Analysts estimate the remaining assets add up to a per-share value of about EUR3.50.
After a second-straight weekend of crisis talks, Fortis now consists of some international insurance activities, a 66% stake in a structured-credit-portfolio entity and about EUR100 million in cash following a deal with the Belgian government and French bank BNP Paribas SA (13110.FR).
Fortis shares closed Friday at EUR5.41 before being suspended Monday, giving it a market capitalization of about EUR12 billion after having fallen about 70% since the start of the year.
The bank suffered badly during the global financial crisis, and its balance sheet became over-stretched when it paid EUR24 billion to gain the assets of former banking giant ABN Amro Holding NV as part of a consortium that included the Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (RBS) and Spain's Banco Santander SA (STD).
Fortis' remaining international insurance activities generated a EUR102 million net profit in the first half of 2008. The 66% stake is in a portfolio of structured products with a fair value of EUR10.4 billion. The Belgian State will own 24% of the entity, while BNP Paribas will hold the remaining 10%.
"The part that remains for shareholders is EUR6.8 billion in fair value for the credit spread portfolio. The international insurance operations, we estimate have a fair value EUR1.5 billion," analyst Cor Kluis at Rabo Securities said.
It is not yet known if taxes have to be paid on this. So this amounts to EUR8.3 billion, which is per share EUR3.5 per share," Kluis adds.
There's probably well less than EUR4 per Fortis share worth of assets left," Dresdner Kleinwort analyst Jaap Meijer said.
The listed entity Fortis Group will also get the cash proceeds from the deal, consisting of EUR4 billion for the Dutch insurance activities, EUR4.7 billion in cash from the sale of the remaining 50%-plus-one-share of Fortis Bank and EUR5.7 billion in cash from the sale of 100% of Fortis Insurance Belgium to BNP Paribas.
As part of the deal, Fortis Bank will buy a stake in the portfolio of structured products, which is transferred from Fortis Bank to a separately managed entity jointly owned by the Fortis Group, the Belgian state and BNP Paribas.
After the purchase of this stake and paying off its debt, there will be about EUR100 million in cash left in the listed company, Chief Executive Filip Dierckx told a conference call.
Ton Gietman, an analyst at Petercam, said it was unclear if further impairments on the structured credit portfolio are needed, although he assumed that there would be, meaning that EUR3.50 a share "is the maximum we can hope for."
Dierckx also said there is no plan to sell off any of the remaining assets. He intends now to "steer the ship" and look at what cash can be generated from the activities that remain. He said that Fortis will remain a listed entity.
Earlier Monday, BNP Paribas confirmed it had agreed to take control of Fortis' operations in Belgium and Luxembourg, as well as its international franchises, for a total of EUR14.5 billion.
Last Friday, the Dutch government decided to nationalize the Dutch part of Fortis, including the part of ABN Amro Holding NV acquired by Fortis last year, citing the current extraordinary circumstances and the potential damage to the real economy.
-By Robin van Daalen, Dow Jones Newswires; +31 20 571 5200; robin.vandaalen@dowjones.com
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END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 06, 2008 09:19 ET (13:19 GMT)
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