Dow Jones: Blaues Auge zum Wochenende

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05.01.04 09:12
1

13786 Postings, 8461 Tage ParocorpDow Jones: Blaues Auge zum Wochenende

Updated 1/2 for Monday's market. print
Key DOW Levels for 1/5
UPAbove 10,450
DNBelow 10,375

Giant Reversal

Dow opens session higher, reverses to end day lower.

From prior commentary, "...The fact that the index continues to hold above 10,400 and has formed a bullish consolidation hints at further upside movement...while a break below 10,400 will mark weakness for Friday's market..."

The Dow began 2004 on a solid note, as the index raced out to an 85 point gain early in the session. However, the index stalled at the highs and eventually unleashed a sharp reversal to the downside, resulting in a 140 point swing off the highs of the session, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts.

Moreover, the reversal caused a downside break of the lower trend line of the major upward-sloping channel that has formed throughout the better part of December, seen in the 60 Minute Chart. The downside break at 10,440 implies a likely retracement in the medium term, which is quite overdue given the recent rise in the market.

Look for the index to begin trending lower in the medium term, especially if the Dow continues to hold beneath 10,450. Otherwise, an upside break through 10,450 will likely mark another move higher toward recent highs, forming a wide trading range at the highs of the current upmove.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow may be forming a lower high beneath 10,425, seen in the 5 Minute Chart, which implies weakness Monday morning. A break below 10,385 will indicate a likely push lower for Monday's Open.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we stopped out of Longs late in the session at 10,400 today, giving us a solid gain of 210 points for our prior trade. We entered the Dow Short at 10,400 today, but stopped out with a 20 point loss. We are out of the market and will watch 10,375 down, and 10,450 up, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P sold off the day's highs today, completing a sharp reversal for the day. Each index got a downside break of its lower channel boundary, which implies further weakness tomorrow. Continue to watch the channels. *

Summary

The Dow began the session sharp, as the index pushed higher at the Open. However, a solid reversal brought the index lower to the Close, which ended up losing 47 points for the session. Given that the lower trend line of the major channel has been violated, further downside movement is likely in the medium term, especially if the Dow keeps below 10,450.

Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading..

Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com

with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Market Analyst fochoa@nirvsys.com

** Note: We are now posting Index entries and exits in Real Time, through our new Intraday Index Alerts service. To learn more about the service, visit SignalWatch.com and select Intraday Alerts from the main navigation bar. - SW Team

_________________________

Rules and Definitions

Dow 15 Minute Chart
DOW-15

Dow 60 Minute Chart
DOW-60

Dow Daily Chart
DOW-D

Dow Weekly Chart
DOW-W

Legend
legend
 

05.01.04 11:42

20520 Postings, 8048 Tage Stox Dudedas ist mittlerweile

der 2te gruene fuer paracorps Dow threads von mir.
die sind wirklich informativ.

Stox Dude

 

05.01.04 11:51

13786 Postings, 8461 Tage ParocorpDanke, Stox... wundere mich nur, dass so

wenige darauf achten...

Naja, hier im Board achten eben viele auf den ach so grossen grossen Dax *g*


Was besonders cool kommt ist dieser Abschnitt:

In the medium term, we stopped out of Longs late in the session at 10,400 today, giving us a solid gain of 210 points for our prior trade.

oder

Short term, the Dow may be forming a lower high beneath 10,425, seen in the 5 Minute Chart, which implies weakness Monday morning. A break below 10,385 will indicate a likely push lower for Monday's Open.

 

 

Fuer S&P sowie Nasdaq sind sie ebenfalls aeusserst warnend (!) - Intraday Abverkauf war heftig am Freitag, wenn der Karren heute nicht nochmal dreht und einen starken Ausgang findet, geht's (endlich, da gesund) mal wieder 200-300 Punkte in die andere Richtung (m. Ziel DOW sind erstmal dann 10.200 Punkte !!)

 

 

05.01.04 12:05

42940 Postings, 7902 Tage Dr.UdoBroemmeNasdaq nochmal 50% in 2004?

1. DIA
The Dow has had a great run, and is not yet showing any signs of weakness. The rally got started when the market made a head and shoulders bottom (which I have highlighted on the chart) and then broke through the neckline of the pattern in the Spring. Notice that just before that breakout, the Sentiment Stockscore line had broken above 60, and has stayed above 60 since.

There is no sign of weakness in this chart yet, but there are two things that are of concern if you are a buyer of stocks. First, the market has come up a lot in a relatively short period of time, and is due for some profit taking. As an investor holding a few stocks that have nice profits, I avoided selling them in December as I would rather wait till a new tax year to lock in the gain, and avoid paying the tax for another year. I don't think I am alone in this fact, and we may see profit taking pick up soon.

The other concern on the Dow chart is the long term resistance that the market is just short of now.Investors remember psychological swing points like the one I have drawn in in red on this chart, and it may bring out some sellers.

I think the short term upside potential is limited for the Dow, and we may spend some time going sideways or lower to start the year. However, the longer term outlook for the Dow remains good, and we should be able to end the year up after a slow start.



2. QQQ
The Nasdaq had an even better year than the Dow, although it spent the last quarter of the year lagging the more established companies of the Dow. The rally got started when the market broke through resistance from rising bottoms, which it had not been able to do for a few years. The Sentiment Stockscore was in the "60 or higher" zone at that time, and has stayed there ever since.

The fact that the Nasdaq has been quiet for the past few months means it is in better shape than the Dow. It has been able to form a base that can be used to move up from. Resistance levels are not that far away, so I don't think we should be too excited about another 50% gain this year. However, I do expect that the Nasdaq will outperform the Dow this year, and end up again. This market should generate lots of opportunities in individual stocks that have stories which capture investor interest.


3. T.XIU
The TSX did great too this year, and has been in a strong up trend (as characterized by rising bottoms on the stock chart) since late last year. My concern with this market is two fold; the gains made make it likely that we will see profit taking to start the year and this market has just broken through long term resistance that may pull it back in January.

Those who have read this letter for some time will know that I like it when stocks or indexes break through resistance, and may wonder why I would be worried about the TSX when it has just been able to break the long term resistance at the red line that I have drawn on this chart.

There is a difference between breakouts from low volatilty chart patterns than out of steep and volatile up trends. It is often the retail investor who is jumping on late that causes a stock to break through resistance from an uptrend, and the pros will tend to bring the market back as they have a lot more stock to sell and take profits on than can be absorbed by the retail investment.

The TSX remains strong technically, but I would be cautious as it is susceptible to a pull back led by profit takers. Don't run for the door until there are signs of weakness, but certainly keep an eye on the exit sign.


 

05.01.04 12:08

20520 Postings, 8048 Tage Stox Dudeparacorp

meine These (siehe future thread) ist, das wir ab SP1112-1114 und NQ 1376-79
wieder fallen.
Erst wenn die gebrochen sind, aendert sich das Chartbild.

Stox Dude

 

05.01.04 12:12

95441 Postings, 8003 Tage Happy EndSkandal!

Um eine objektive Punktevergabe zu gewährleisten, muß ein Moderator seine Anonymität im Board bewahren. Andernfalls kann ihm die Moderatorfähigkeit entzogen werden. Ohne diese Regel könnte es beispielsweise zum gegenseitigen Zuschieben von Punkten kommen.

*g*  

05.01.04 12:12

20520 Postings, 8048 Tage Stox DudeGute Info Doc

Schaetze das die erstmal Stops fischen gehen, z.B. bei ca 1870er Marke bevor
es steigt. Der Dow Jones koennte sogar erstmal bis 9300 (mittelfristig) fallen.


Stox Dude

 

05.01.04 12:25

20520 Postings, 8048 Tage Stox DudeHabbie

Wenn ich was fuer sehr informativ halte, nehme ich dazu auch mal Stellung.
z.B. wuerde ich gerne dem Doc einen gruenen geben, kann aber nicht, weil ich
bereits in diesem thread gepostet habe.

Stox Dude

 

05.01.04 12:33

3393 Postings, 8098 Tage BoxenbauerIch hab auch mal wieder

ne erste Position Shorts aufgebaut, 822677 4350er Short zu 3,20€ und warte mal ab was passiert. Vielleicht wir nachgekauft oder mal nen kleiner Gewinn realsiert.



Fussball- Grüße

Boxenbauer  

05.01.04 12:39

562 Postings, 8167 Tage bogardDie Onko-Analyse

Der Dow wird sich mittelfristig konstant zwischen 8000 und 12000 bewegen. Langfrist-Anleger sollten auch weiterhin keine Aktien verkaufen. Auf kurze Sicht ist unbedingt das Tagesgeschehen zu beobachten.  

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