Reality Check: US Office Market Execs: Recovery St

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30.09.04 09:25

525 Postings, 7171 Tage FlorianPascaleReality Check: US Office Market Execs: Recovery St

Reality Check: US Office Market Execs: Recovery Stalls In 3Q> Sep 29 / 11:21 EDT
hxxp://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/...sp?prod=62&banner=mainwire_features

Ausschnitt:

NEW YORK (MktNews) - The tenuous recovery in the U.S. office market stalled in the third quarter as lackluster job growth reduced demand for office space and political and other economic uncertainties made businesses less eager to expand, say real-estate management firms.
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"Everybody is anticipating the elections, employment growth has been lackluster and companies are taking advantage of the bottoming of the market in terms of renewals," she said.
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"The office market is just taking a leisurely stroll into recovery -- it's certainly not a brisk pace," said Robert Bach, national director of market analysis for Grubb & Ellis, the commercial property developer based in the Chicago suburb of Northbrook. "The economy will mope along,
which means the office market will mope along as well."

He singled out disappointing jobs data and prospects for weaker corporate earnings as the biggest obstacles to a recovery, with fifty-dollar oil, elections and talk about terrorism "contributing to the air of uncertainty."

Das Wachstum von der US-Wirtschaft setzt seine Verlangsamung fort und die Preisinflation steigt an.

Soaring cost of basic foods gives shoppers indigestion
hxxp://www.startribune.com/stories/535/5007009.html

Ausschnitt:

Have you poured a glass of milk lately? Barbecued a steak? Scrambled an egg for breakfast? If so, you've probably noticed: It costs a lot more to eat these days.

Over the past several months, the cost of food for consumers has risen at a faster clip than we've seen since 1990. Last week's Consumer Price Index indicated that the trend eased a bit in August, but overall food costs still are climbing steadily.

From shoppers to restaurant owners to school lunch managers, many are feeling the hit.
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``Basically, what you had was an almost perfect storm,'' said Bob Young, chief economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation in Washington, D.C. ``All the major commodities rose, and it just rattled through the system.''
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Since 1990, overall prices for food eaten at home and away from home have climbed about 40 percent, according to the CPI. That's an average of about 2.5 percent a year, in keeping with the modest inflation rate Americans enjoyed during that stretch.

In the past two years, the annual increase has been smaller: 1.8 percent in 2002 and 2.2 percent in 2003. But this year, the pace picked up and is on track to come close to a 4 percent annual increase. That compares with the current 1.7 percent annual increase for consumer items other than fuel and food, what economists call the core rate of inflation.

That's the zippiest pace for food price increases since 1990, when they rose 5.8 percent.

RETAIL SALES ARE DECLINING

hxxp://fidweek.econoday.com/reports/US/EN/New_York/btm_schroders_­chain_stores/year/2004/weekly/40/index.html

ICSC-UBS Store Sales

Ausschnitt:

Severe weather in the Southeast and Northeast together with high gas prices drove down retail sales 0.3 percent in the September 25 week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

But year-on-year sales in the week held unchanged at 3.5 percent, well above the 1.1 percent rate in August.

Nevertheless, the 3.5 percent rate is barely above the rate of inflation and continues to compare badly with the 6 to 7 percent pace earlier in the year.

Corporate After - Tax profits improved due to HIGHER PRICE INFLATION

hxxp://fidweek.econoday.com/reports/US/EN/New_York/corporate_prof­its/year/2004/yearly/09/index.html

Ausschnitt:

Helping profits in the quarter were strong results from metal fabricators, who were raising prices and slapping on raw material surcharges, as well as from electrical equipment manufacturers and information companies.

Zusammenfassung:

sinkende Einzelhandelsumsätze,
keine oder eine ungenügende Schaffung von Arbeitsplätzen ("jobless recovery"),
steigende Preisinflation bei den Commodities und Grundnahrungsmitteln, Benzin, Gesundheitskosten, Versicherungen, Einkommenssteuern, etc. etc..

Der US-$ ist derzeit um mindestens 30 - 40% überbewertet.  

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