AGM ist am 15.12.2012. http://www.sedar.com/....do;jsessionid=0000xfDlnq2Sd30xgt731YJypet:-1
Werde auch mal schauen, wie die Stimmung dort ist. TEM kam gestern mit neuer BUY-Empfehlung mit Kursziel 0,60 NOK.
Transeuro (TSU) has scheduled its Q3 report for Tuesday, November 30. We expect a net loss of CAD -0,7m based on a marginal production level from the Beaver River field in Canada (131 boe/d net, based on Questerre’s report).
The focus remains on whether and when TSU manages to resume drilling the Karl-101 well in Ukraine, in a discovered but unproduced Karlavskoye gas field. The Karl-101 well was drilled in 2008 when a well control incident and then the withdrawal of the project partner RAG led to the well being suspended at a depth of 2 750m. TSU now plans to drill a sidetrack in the well from a depth of 2 700 to 3 500m, and then test two or more intervals. A contract for a drilling rig has already been signed with the drilling expected to commence in Q4 2010. TSU targets around 5 000 boe/d flow from the well.
Under the estimated cost of drilling and testing of the Karl-101 well of around USD 5m being approx. equal to the estimated proceeds from the sale of the Eaglewood (EWD) shares (more than 4 mill. shares have been sold since the end of Q2 with less than 2 mill. remaining), TSU could potentially drill and get results from the well without raising additional money. The chances of this have increased after the agreement with Questerre in September upon which CAD 4,3m of TSU’s payables will be extinguished.
If TSU is not able to finance the well from its own funds, other options would be a farm-out of the Ukraine licenses (finding a partner to pay the costs), selling the drilling rig in Armenia or the back-in option to a 10% interest in EWD’s exploration licenses in Papua New Guinea. The last option is a share issue.
Please find 3 scenarios of a development in TSU with impact to shareholders:
Scenario 1: Financing is insufficient to bring results from the Karl-101 well. In such a case, we estimate TSU could run out of cash during the next 12 months and a dilutive share issue would likely be necessary.
Scenario 2: Karl-101 well appears non-producible. Although TSU would likely plan other wells in Karlavskoye, the success probability of the field would reduce. In the worst case, applying a 0% success probability for Karlavskoye, we would find the TSU share to be worth NOK 0,08. TSU would probably also require a dilutive equity issue to finance more wells.
Scenario 3: Karl-101 well is successfully put on production. Assuming 60% recovery of the P50 resources of 425 Bcf with 60% geological chance of success, an additional exploration prospect of 500 Bcf with 60% recovery and 30% geol. succ. and condensate yield of 25 b/mmcf, we see TSU share worth up to NOK 3,37 if increasing the general Karlavskoye succ. prob. to 100%.
We see it more likely than not that Karl-101 drilling will be resumed in Q4, which should bring a positive market sentiment. The recent insider buys, amounting to ca NOK 250 000 during the last month, also speak in favour of a break-through in Ukraine. Encouraged by the improved financial position, we lift the general success prob. for the Karlavskoye field to 25% (from 10%), leading to an increase in the SOTP value to NOK 0,81 per share, a raise of the target price to NOK 0,60 and an upgrade to Buy. Please note that the recommendation is speculative and bears a very high risk!
(CADm)Q3 2010eQ2 2010
Revenues0,20,2
EBITDA-0,6-0,3
Pretax profit-0,7-2,4
EPS adjusted (NOK)-0,01-0,01
Conclusion
We see it more likely than not that the drilling of the Karl-101 well will be resumed in Q4, bringing a positive market sentiment. We upgrade Transeuro to a Buy, emphasizing that this is a speculative and highly risky recommendation.
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einen mittelfristigen Chart hier rein: