Hi, Nachreichung einer Stimme zum jüngsten Gewinnwarnungsdebakel von Hargreaves Lansdown:
"Aston Martin issued an unexpected profit warning as production volumes look set to land 1,000 units lower than previously expected. That’s seen full-year profit and free cash flow guidance downgraded. The news wasn’t received well by markets, with the market cap taking a double-digit hit on the day.
The group’s not alone in its struggles though, and the demand outlook for some other automakers is much bleaker. Aston Martin’s high price point arguably offers it some level of protection from general auto trends, given its buyers aren’t typically short of cash.
The higher price point stems from a shift in focus towards selling more Specials, which retail at a much higher value than its core offering. Thanks to efficiency improvements, the cars have also become cheaper to make, which has provided some relief to profitability.
While we're supportive of Aston Martin's enviable brand and product prowess, there are some things to be aware of.
There’s no getting around it, the high debt level is a real problem. It makes it difficult to obtain additional debt financing should demand slip and the group run into trouble. It refinanced £1.15bn of debt on better terms earlier this year, but the new debt still carries double-digit interest rates. This shows that its lenders need to be compensated heavily for the high level of risk they’re taking on.
Free cash flow has not improved as fast as expected this year, which could spell further trouble if the group runs out of cash to meet these obligations. Improving cash generation and getting debt to a more comfortable level needs to be the key focus. It’s an area we’ll be tracking progress closely, and we wouldn’t rule out further disappointments down the road.
We're also aware that brand positioning could insulate it somewhat from the shift away from petrol, but electric is the long-term direction of travel for automakers. This transition to electrification and rising prices means capital expenditure is on an upward course. The group’s also been spending big on marketing. That’s a natural step when you’re trying to reposition a brand like AML, but we need some proof that money’s being spent to grow market share, rather than hold onto it.
The group faces challenges if it wants to convince markets it can keep 2025 targets on track. Given the weak balance sheet, its new models must be blockbuster hits to keep the necessary cash coming in the door. The valuation is likely to come under more pressure if there are further supply and demand disruptions, and there’s no dividend on offer to reward investors for their patience."
Mich hat der Kursrutsch leider kalt erwischt, weil ich schon einige Zeit beruflich und privat stark eingebunden bin.
Mit den Informationen aus dem Forum hätte ich das aber vermeiden können, deswegen Danke an alle, die hier sinnvolle Perspektiven teilen!
Jetzt bleibe ich erstmal drin und vertraue darauf, dass das neue Management mit seinen Eigentümern eine kluge Lösung findet und anschließend die Früchte der Modellpolitik und des Marketings geerntet werden können.
Für wie wahrscheinlich haltet ihr eine Insolvenz?
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