China Mobile's Profit Probably Climbed on Record Gain in Users
By Janet Ong
March 21 (Bloomberg) -- China Mobile Ltd., the world's largest wireless phone company by market value, may report an increase in fourth-quarter profit after attracting more than 14 million subscribers in the final three months of 2006.
Net income probably rose 23 percent to 20.5 billion yuan ($2.6 billion) from 16.7 billion yuan a year earlier, according to the median estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Beijing-based China Mobile is scheduled to report earnings today after the 4 p.m. market close in Hong Kong.
Chief Executive Officer Wang Jianzhou plans to convert some of the 53 million customers signed up last year to the nation's first high-speed mobile-phone service, which will offer video and music downloads at faster speeds than now. China Mobile is building a $3.1 billion so-called third-generation network, scheduled to start trials in October.
``The numbers speak for themselves,'' said Christopher Wong, who helps manage $25 billion, including China Mobile shares, at Aberdeen Asset Management in Singapore. ``Mobile penetration in China is still relatively low and therein lies the potential.''
China is the world's biggest mobile-phone market by users, with 461.1 million at the end of December. China Mobile, which controls about 65 percent of the market, added a record number of customers in each of the three months to December.
The company cut rates and offered lower monthly price plans in cities including Beijing and Guangzhou to counter Little Smart, a cheaper citywide cordless service from fixed-line operators China Telecom Corp. and China Network Communications Group Corp.
Full-year profit may have gained 24 percent to 66.2 billion yuan from 53.6 billion yuan a year earlier, according to the analyst survey.
Rival Standards
China Mobile, which lags behind Newbury, England-based Vodafone Group Plc and Japan's NTT Docomo Inc. in sales, may say full-year revenue rose 55 percent to 243 billion from 156.7 billion yuan a year earlier, the survey showed.
The company offers services using the global system for mobile communications, or GSM, the most common wireless technology.
It had 301.2 million at the end of December, more than Vodafone's 198.6 million and Docomo's 95.3 million combined.
Rival China Unicom Ltd., which offers services using both the GSM and code division multiple access, or CDMA, standards, had 142.4 million users at the end of December.
Smaller Phone Bills
China Mobile's monthly average revenue per customer probably fell 2 percent from a year earlier to 85 yuan ($11) because most new users were from rural areas, where the company has lower call rates, said Allan Ng, an analyst at BOC International (China) Ltd. in Hong Kong.
That's less than the 6,670 yen ($56.90) at DoCoMo in the quarter ended Dec. 31. China Mobile's lower revenue per user reflects its higher proportion of prepaid clients, who typically spend less. More than three-quarters, or 236 million, of subscriptions were prepaid users as of Dec. 31.
Higher use of services such as text messages and ring-tone downloads helped offset the decline in average revenue, said Ng, who rates China Mobile ``underperform.'' Sales from these services may have accounted for 28 percent of China Mobile's revenue, up from 25 percent in 2005, he said.
China Mobile also benefited from easing competition as China Telecom and China Network slowed promotions of Little Smart while waiting for the government to issue licenses for third-generation, or 3G, networks.
High-Speed Networks
The government, which said it plans to offer 3G services for the 2008 Beijing Olympics, hasn't set a timetable for granting licenses. China in January 2006 adopted the locally developed time division synchronous code division multiple access as one of its standards for 3G.
China Mobile Communications Corp., parent of China Mobile Ltd., invited bids for contracts worth as much as 24 billion yuan to build the nation's first high-speed network, Chen Haofei, secretary general of industry group TD-SCDMA Forum, said March 19. The network, based on TD-SCDMA, needs to be completed by October for a commercial trial of the technology, Chen said.
China Mobile may face stiffer competition as fixed-line operators might also be awarded 3G licenses, analysts said. China Telecom and China Netcom may take over the network assets from wireless operator China Unicom as part of an industry revamp, they said.
The nation's Assets Supervision and Administration Commission said on March 6 that reorganization of the telecommunications industry is a priority this year.
``Industry restructuring is a bigger risk than 3G licensing as it will create instant competition for China Mobile,'' Tim Storey, an analyst at JPMorgan Securities Ltd. with an ``overweight'' rating on the stock, wrote in a March 9 report.
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