Pfizer - zu Unrecht im Keller

Die Deutsche-Bank-Analystin B. Ryan (rechnet mit einer 80 % Chance für Lipitor-Verlust in England, s. Posting 425) wurde in "CNN Money" (Posting 400) mit der Aussage zitiert, dass die Pfizer-Aktie in dem Fall, dass das Lipitor-Patent in USA erhalten bleibt, auf 33 USD hochschnellt. Im Verlustfall würde Pfizer auf 21 Dollar abstürzen. Zurzeit steht Pfizer bei 24,50 USD.

Wenn die Aktie also incl. Lipitor 33 USD wert sein soll, wieviel ist sie dann ohne Lipitor wert? Machen wir mal die Rechnung auf:

Lipitor macht 20 % des Gesamtumsatzes von Pfizer aus. Kommen Generika auf den Markt, sinken die Verkäufe typischerweise um 75 %, also um Dreiviertel. Folglich sollten die worst-case-Umsatzeinbußen von Pfizer Dreiviertel von diesen 20 % betragen - also 15 %. Unter der Annahme, dass der Profit bei Lipitor nicht höher ist als bei anderen Pfizer-Medikamenten, sollte der Gewinn also um 15 Prozent sinken. Da die Aktie mit 33 USD INCL. Lipitor fair bewertet sein soll, wäre sie OHNE Lipitor-Patent folglich 15 % weniger wert: 28,05 USD. Und dies gilt wohlgemerkt nur, wenn auch in USA das Patent verloren geht, was jedoch sehr unwahrscheinlich ist: Die Chance dafür beträgt lediglich 5 bis 10 % (Posting 400), da die US-Patentgesetzgebung firmenfreundlicher ist.

Und was macht die Börse daraus? Pfizer notiert wegen dieser Unsicherheit jetzt bei 24,50 USD, obwohl die Aktie im schlimmsten Fall 28,05 USD wert ist. Letzten Sommer stand Pfizer sogar noch bei 37 USD.

Interessanterweise hat die Pfizer-Aktie auf den Patentverlust in Österreich Ende März kaum reagiert (siehe Chart unten). Der englische Markt ist größer: 7 % des Umsatzes mit Lipitor werden dort erzielt. Das ist aber nur 1,4 % von Pfizers Gesamtumsatz.  

während der SP-500 Federn lässt. Vielleicht kauft da heimlich unsere Deutsche-Bank-Analystin aus Posting 425/426.  

bin heute morgen mit 90% bei merck rein,(21.85-21.90)betrachte mir pfizer bis mittwoch von der seitenlinie,denke werde bei einem rücksetzer auch wieder einsteigen...  

Kann sein, dass PFE sich mit dem Gesamtmarkt nach oben bewegt. Kann aber auch sein, dass gewisse Leute schon wissen, was da Mittwoch um 14:00 in England verkündet wird. Womöglich gibt es bereits eine schriftliche Version - mit entsprechender "Flüsterpropaganda". Muss die SEC ja nicht gleich mitkriegen, wenn der Stiefschwager schnell mal ein paar tausend PFE kauft (solange das keine Calls sind, da achtet die SEC eher drauf).

Ich bin mal guter Hoffnung und betrachte die DB-Analystin, die zu 80 % mit einem Fall des Lipitor-Patents in England rechnet, als Kontraindikator.

In USA lief der Prozess bereits vor knapp einem Jahr. Das US-Urteil steht immer noch aus, dürfte aber ebenfalls demnächst verkündet werden. Wenn das Patent in England nicht fällt, dürfte es in USA erst recht nicht fallen. Dann würde PFE schon am Mittwoch abgehen.
 

Lehman glaubt im Gegensatz zur DB-Analystin, dass Pfizer das Patent in England behält, und bleibt vor der Urteilsverkündung bei "overweight". Das will aber IMHO nichts heißen. Morgen könnte Lehman dann, wenn der Prozess negativ ausgeht, auf "sell" umschwenken. Wär ja nicht das erste Mal, dass Analysten ihr Urteil "Post festum" umkehren.

PFE fällt derweil in NY auf 24,05 USD.

--------------

11.10.2005 14:20
ANALYSE: Lehman behält Pfizer vor Lipitor-Urteil auf 'Overweight'

Lehman Brothers (Nachrichten) hat die Aktien von Pfizer einen Tag vor dem Urteil im Patentrechtstreit um den Lipitor-Vertrieb in Großbritannien mit "Overweight" bestätigt. Es sei davon auszugehen, dass der US-Pharmakonzern vor dem Gericht in London Recht bekomme, hieß es in einer Studie am Dienstag. Die Entscheidung werde für Mittwochmorgen erwartet und könne Auswirkungen auf ein entsprechendes Verfahren in den USA haben.

Im Zusammenhang mit dem Cholesterinsenker, der in Deutschland unter dem Namen Sortis vertrieben wird, laufen Patentrechtsverfahren in mehreren Ländern. In Österreich hatte der indische Generikahersteller Ranbaxy im vergangenen Herbst einen Erfolg erzielt. Pfizer kündigte indes Einspruch gegen die Annullierung des Patents für den Lipitor-Wirkstoff Atorvastatin Calcium an.

Von dem Lipitor-Umsatz außerhalb der USA erzielt Pfizer nach Einschätzung der Analysten des US-Investmenthauses 15 bis 20 Prozent in Großbritannien. Bei den beiden umstrittenen Patenten handele es sich um Nr. ''633 (vergleichbar dem US-Patent ''893) und Nr. ''281 (vergleichbar dem US-Patent ''995). Die britischen Patente liefen nach Pfizer-Angaben im November 2011, bzw. im Juli 2010 aus.

Gemäß der Einstufung "Overweight" gehen die Analysten von Lehman Brothers davon aus, dass sich die Aktie in den kommenden zwölf Monaten besser entwickeln wird als die übrigen Titel der Branche./jb/fat

Analysierendes Institut Lehman Brothers.  

Quelle: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000102&sid=a0TUIBGzI63c#

Hier ein Auszug daraus:

...
"The obvious case to watch out for is if Pfizer loses the patent," said Steven Sean Hill, who helps manage about $3.5 billion at First Investors Management Co. in New York, including Pfizer shares, in an Oct. 10 telephone interview. "While that would hurt the European operations, we're more worried about the implications it would have for the U.S. ruling."

Pfizer shares have fallen 17 percent in the last 12 months, while those of Gurgaon, India-based Ranbaxy have dropped 6.9 percent in the period.

Because the patents and arguments are similar in the U.K. and the U.S., investors may try to extrapolate the U.K. decision to the U.S., Merrill Lynch analyst David Risinger and colleagues wrote in a note to clients last month.

"We expect Pfizer to prevail against Ranbaxy in the U.K.," Hill said. "Even if they do win it doesn't mean they will win in the States and even if they lose it doesn't mean they will lose in the States."
...  

habe  heute meine merck verkauft und werde morgen mit einem limet von 18,50 meine 5000 pfizer zurückholen,,,,,,,  

wenn du sie dafür bekommst, wär das ja super. 18,50 Euro sind ja nur 22,20 USD.  

NEUES und INTERESSANTES hab ich FETT hervorgehoben.

Analyst Timothy Anderson von Prudential sieht Pfizers Gewinn-Chance beim ersten der beiden Lipitor-Patente bei 65 %, beim zweiten bei 50 %. Ranbaxy müsste beide Patente kippen, um erfolgreich zu sein. Das senkt die Gesamtchance nach den Gesetzen der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung auf 65/100 x 50/100 = 33 % [Rechnung von mir, A. L.] Die Chancen stehen demnach 2 zu 1 dafür, dass Pfizer gewinnt.

Vor dem Problem des Patentverlustes vor Gericht stehen auch Bristol-Myers Squibb und Sanofi-Aventis, die gemeinsam Plavix vermarkten. Eli Lilly gewann kürzlich einen solchen Patentstreit vor Gericht, ohne dass sich der Aktienkurs erhöhte.

---------

Forbes.com
Sciences and Medicine
Pfizer's Patent Peril

Matthew Herper, 10.11.05, 5:08 PM ET

Pfizer’s future, and indeed, the performance of the whole drug sector, could hinge on patent decisions related to Lipitor, the world’s top-selling drug. The first of these rulings, in the United Kingdom, is expected Wednesday by 10 A.M. ET.

The U.K. decision is widely seen as a prelude to a more important decision in the United States, where Lipitor, a treatment for high cholesterol, brings in a projected $7.5 billion per year, 63% of the drug’s worldwide sales and more than a tenth of Pfizer's total revenue.

Pfizer had no comment on the impending decision.

Ranbaxy, a generic drugmaker based in Gurgaon, India, is challenging two key patents on Lipitor in the hopes of selling its own version of the drug at a lower price. A flood of generics would eventually follow, cutting Lipitor revenue considerably as the price of the drug was pushed down by competition.

Patent protection--which keeps anyone from selling cheaper versions of easy-to-make pills--is the main reason branded prescription drugs are the most profitable product on the planet. The idea that what appear to be solid patents might be overturned threatens the entire business model of the pharmaceutical industry, which pours hundreds of millions of dollars into inventing each drug in the hopes of profit later.

Timothy Anderson, an analyst at Prudential Equity Group, wrote yesterday in a note to investors that New York-based Pfizer, the world’s largest drug firm, is likely to win on both patents. He put the odds of a Pfizer win at 65% for the more critical of the two patents, and 50% on the second. Ranbaxy would probably have to win both to launch the drug soon.

But Anderson wrote that he believes Pfizer should have worked to settle the case--perhaps by paying Ranbaxy as much as $1 billion and allowing a generic onto the market six months before Pfizer expects Lipitor generics in the U.S. in 2012.

“While our work says the odds favor Pfizer,” Anderson wrote, “consensus on this is mixed and because the potential downside is so immense the company should not be willing to take this risk. Hopefully ego has not gotten in the way of being practical.”

The worry that a big drug like Lipitor could suddenly be wiped off a company’s top-line revenue could be hurting the entire sector, according to Barbara Ryan at Deutsche Bank. She wrote in a note this morning that the U.K. announcement would probably overshadow the quarterly performance of the whole drug sector, including firms such as Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly and Merck. “Earnings, smearnings,” she wrote.

The fear that Lipitor patents might be invalidated puts a “For Sale” sign on drug stocks, Ryan argued, driving down the price not only of Pfizer shares but also of its peers.

The problem is not isolated to Pfizer. A challenge to the patent on Eli Lilly’s top seller Zyprexa depressed shares of that drug firm for months. Lilly won that case in April, but shares have failed to climb. Bristol-Myers and Sanofi-Aventis are now facing a challenge to patents on the blood-thinner Plavix, the biggest moneymaker for both companies.

In his note, Prudential’s Anderson argues that losing Lipitor would do more than just strip a “hefty chunk” of earnings, but also cause collateral damage. Pfizer has been hoping to extend the Lipitor franchise with a follow up drug, torcetrapib, to raise good cholesterol and further cut the rate of heart attacks. But sales for that drug will likely be lower if Pfizer can’t charge for a combination pill that combines torcetrapib, Pfizer’s most important pipeline drug, with Lipitor. Such a loss, he writes, could be “devastating.”
 

habe schon mal 50%(2500) gekauft ,scheint heut mit dem urteil nichts zugeben  

In New York vorbörslich über 25,30 USD = + 4,5 %

Parallel dazu geht auch BMY ab (Gründe: siehe letztes Posting)  

CBS news

9:12am 10/12/05

[PFE, RBXZF] PFIZER SAYS UK COURT UPHOLDS KEY LIPITOR PATENT THROUGH 2011  

Es hat sich mal wieder ausgezahlt - wie bei der franz. Fa. Alstom im November 2004 - , die Analysen der Deutschen Bank als Kontraindikator zu benutzen.

Hätten die englischen Richter für die Inder gestimmt, hätte dies der gesamten Pharma-Industrie einen harten Schlag versetzt - und billigen Nachahmern auch der Dritten Welt Tür und Tor geöffnet. Es gibt in dem Urteil sicherlich auch eine politische Komponente.

Jetzt, wo das Urteil in GB durch ist, wird es in USA wohl auch positiv für PFE ausfallen, da die Patentgesetzgebung dort noch unternehmensfreundlicher ist (man kann in USA z. B. eine Geschäftsidee patentieren, wie Ebay das getan hat, in Europa hingegen nicht).

Ich sehe Pfizer daher wieder auf dem Weg zu alten Höhen bei über 30 USD.

Randnotiz:

Auf die Meldung zog der SP-500-Future um 3 Punkte an - weil der gesamte Pharmasektor betroffen ist. BMY stieg beispielsweise ebenfalls um 2 %, weil nun auch ein negatives Urteil bei Plavix unwahrscheinlichlicher geworden ist.
 

Pfizer US Lipitor Patent Battle Seen Ending Same As In UK

Dow Jones Newswires
10-12-05 01:14 PM EST

A decision in a London courtroom involving a patent dispute with Pfizer Inc.'s (PFE) Lipitor, the best-selling drug in the world, might be a harbinger of the outcome in a court located across the ocean.

The U.K. High Court of Justice on Wednesday upheld until November 2011 the main patent covering Lipitor. Patent 633 covers atorvastatin, the active ingredient of the company's cholesterol-lowering drug. However, the court ruled invalid another patent, called number 281, that covers the calcium salt of atorvastatin.

The ruling is part of a lawsuit brought by Indian generic-drug manufacturer Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd. (500359.BY), which challenged the two patents. Ranbaxy said it would appeal its loss in the first patent, while Pfizer said it would appeal its loss in the second.

There's a similar patent case being fought in the U.S., with a decision expected from the U.S. District Court of Delaware later this year. Analysts expect similar results, with the main patent upheld but the secondary overturned. Few seem concerned about any effect on U.S. sales of Lipitor from the case. "I haven't been and I'm not concerned about the outcome of the (U.S.) patent challenge," said Jon Fisher, analyst with Fifth Third Asset Management. "They won't win every single detail, but they'll win the war."

Last year, U.S. Lipitor sales totaled $6.63 billion, with worldwide sales including the U.S. at $10.86 billion. Pfizer, in a press release, characterized the U.K. ruling as a victory. "This court decision is consistent with the fundamental principle that patent laws exist to support and encourage medical innovators, not undermine them," said Pfizer Chairman and Chief Executive Hank McKinnell. Shares of Pfizer rose on the news, and were recently up 61 cents, or 2.5%, at $24.91.

However, analysts noted that U.K. sales of Lipitor represent well under 10% of total Lipitor sales, and argue that the U.S. court decision will be of greater importance.
Analysts believe the U.K. can be a bellwether in cases such as this, influencing how the U.S. case comes out. David Webster, president of Webster Consulting Group, said the U.K. case "might be a harbinger of the U.S. decision."

The secondary patent, on which Pfizer lost in the U.K. court, was "somewhat less important," said analyst David Moskowitz, of Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co., in a note to investors. He believes the main patent will hold in the U.S. case, and said that case could be decided any time.

"The court upheld the 'genus' patent but not the 'species' patent," Moskowitz wrote. He noted that the 'genus' patent - or Patent 633 in the U.K. - is equivalent to Patent 893 in the U.S., which provides Lipitor its main protection. While the U.S. and U.K. law differ in important respects, "We believe that this decision could give investors more confidence that the 893 patent should hold in the pending U.S. case," Moskowitz wrote.

He rates Pfizer stock at outperform and doesn't own shares. There isn't any investment banking relationship between his firm and Pfizer. Webster, of Webster Consulting, said if Pfizer ultimately loses on the second patent in the U.S., it may have to pay the victor some percentage of past product sales.

Dow Jones Newswires  

Würde in USA - ebenso wie jetzt in England - das zweite Lipitor-Patent gekippt und das erste aufrechterhalten, liefen Pfizers Exklusivrechte bereits im März 2010 (2. Patent) aus statt wie bislang im Juni 2011 (1. Patent). Allerdings ist die US-Rechtsprechung anders, so dass möglicherweise beide Patente bestehen bleiben.

Erstaunlich in dem Artikel in der NYT (unten) fand ich, dass einige Analysten glauben, Lipitor würde bis zu 50 % von Pfizers Gewinn ausmachen. Kommt mir merkwürdig vor, da Lipitor nur 20 % des Umsatzes ausmacht. Dann müsste Lipitor nach Adam Riese eine viermal höhere Gewinnmarge haben als die anderen Medikamente (das könnte evtl. an den hohen Verkaufszahlen liegen, die die anteiligen Entwicklungskosten senken).


NEW YORK TIMES
Market Place

Pfizer Gets Mixed Verdict in British Lipitor Patent Case


By ALEX BERENSON
Published: October 13, 2005

A British court provided a mixed verdict for Pfizer in a crucial patent dispute yesterday, upholding one of the company's British patents on Lipitor, the company's best-selling cholesterol-lowering medicine, but invalidating a second one.

The ruling, by Justice Nicholas Pumfrey of the High Court in London, will have no practical effect on Pfizer's control over Lipitor in Britain because the court upheld a patent that covers the main active ingredient in the drug. That patent does not expire until November 2011.

The patent that the court invalidated had a shorter duration, expiring in July 2010, so Pfizer's exclusive right to sell Lipitor in Britain will stay intact until November 2011.

Shares of Pfizer, the world's biggest drug company, closed up more than 2 percent yesterday in the United States after the verdict was announced. Still, at $24.84, they are trading near an eight-year low, in part because of investors' concerns about a related Lipitor patent challenge in the United States, a far larger market.

If the American case were to be decided in the same way as the British one, Pfizer could lose its patent protection for Lipitor in this country about a year sooner than currently expected.

Sales in the United States represent about 60 percent of the $12 billion global market for Lipitor, which is the world's best-selling drug and by some estimates accounts for nearly half of Pfizer's profits.

In a statement, Pfizer said it was generally pleased with the ruling but would appeal the part of the decision invalidating its 2010 patent. "This is an important victory not only for Pfizer but for all innovators pursuing high-risk medical discoveries," said Henry A. McKinnell, the company's chairman.

Ranbaxy Laboratories, the Indian drug company that brought the patent challenge in Britain and has made similar challenges in other countries, including the United States, also said it planned to appeal the decision.

Lipitor sales in Britain make up only about 6 percent of sales of the drug worldwide. But Pfizer investors have closely watched the British case because Pfizer's American patents on Lipitor are very similar to its British patents.

Before yesterday's British verdict, some analysts had predicted that Ranbaxy could have at least a 50 percent chance of winning its patent challenge in this country.

A decision in the United States patent case, which was tried last year before a federal judge in Delaware, is expected before the end of December, Pfizer and Ranbaxy say. As it did in Britain, Ranbaxy is arguing in the case in Delaware that Pfizer's basic patents on Lipitor, whose active ingredient is a chemical called atorvastatin, are invalid.

In this case, as in most patent lawsuits, the arguments are often complicated and highly technical. In essence, Ranbaxy has claimed that one of the two Lipitor patents does not cover the exact molecular form of atorvastatin that Pfizer sells as Lipitor. The second patent - which does cover the exact molecular form - should be invalidated, Ranbaxy has said, because it does not represent a real advance over the first patent.

The British court agreed with Ranbaxy's argument that the second patent is invalid but upheld the first patent, which in Britain actually expires later than the second patent.

In the United States, however, the patent expiration dates are reversed. The first, most basic patent on atorvastatin expires in March 2010, while the second patent - the patent that the British court invalidated - expires in June 2011. As a result, if the Delaware court follows the British precedent, Pfizer could face competition on Lipitor in the United States a year earlier than it had expected.

But David Risinger, an analyst at Merrill Lynch, said in a research note yesterday that the legal hurdles for invalidating the second patent are higher in the United States than in Britain. "We caution that the patents and legal systems are different in the U.S., so the rulings could be different," Mr. Risinger wrote.  

habe alles verkauft ,da können noch so gute nachrichten kommen ,die amis spinnen doch,,bin grade voll in tui rein  

Falls du bei TUI die Vogelgrippe kriegst (türkeireisen) -> PFE hat den Impfstoff ;-))
Ich hab den leichten Rückgang genutzt, ein paar Optionen NACHzukaufen, weil das Abwärtsrisiko jetzt viel kleiner geworden ist.  

liefert ein klares KAUF-Signal!  

mein gott werde morgen bei pfizer zum x mal wieder einsteigen ,wenn ich meine tui über 17,36 abstossen kann.unter 20 EURO ist  pfizer doch auf jeden fall ein kauf wert,denke da ist bis weihnachten wieder ein skiurlaub drin...  

...und verkaufen PFE, weil nächsten Sommer das Patent für Zocor, Mercks Cholesterinsenker, wegfällt: In der New York Times (unten) steht, dass viele Ärzte dann nicht mehr Pfizers Lipitor verschreiben wollen, sondern Generika-"Klone" von Zocor. Studien haben jedoch ergeben, dass Pfizers Wirkstoff in Lipitor effektiver ist (57 % Cholesterin-Senkung mit Lipitor gegenüber 47 % mit Zocor bei gleicher Dosis - siehe unten, fett). Es ist schwer, Leute, die ein Medikament jahrelang genommen haben, zum Umstieg bewegen, wenn die Wirkung schlechter ist - selbst, wenn die Tagesdosis dann statt 2 $ (Lipitor) nur 0,35 $ (Zocor-Klon) kostet. Immerhin geht es um Herzinfarkt- und Schlaganfall-Risiken, in den USA immer noch die Killer Nr. 1. Die derzeitigen Verkäufe der Fonds sind daher eine Überreaktion (zumal PFE selbst ohne Lipitor mindestens 28 USD "wert" ist, wie ich oben vorgerechnet habe). Gleichwohl fällt die Aktie wegen der Verkäufe weiter - und bietet Neueinsteigern damit eine gute Gelegenheit.


NEW YORK TIMES
October 15, 2005

Lipitor or Generic? Billion-Dollar Battle Looms
By ALEX BERENSON

The Lipitor war is about to begin.

Starting next June, insurers and government agencies will have the opportunity to save billions of dollars by moving patients from Lipitor, a cholesterol-lowering drug by Pfizer that is the world's top-selling medication, to an inexpensive generic version of Zocor, a similar but less potent drug now made by Merck.

Some insurers are already planning ways to move patients from Lipitor to generic cholesterol drugs after Zocor loses its patent protection. But Pfizer, which plans to use marketing muscle and clinical data to fight that migration, says that Lipitor has unique benefits and is worth a premium price, especially for patients at high risk of heart attacks.

Both medicines belong to a class of drugs known as statins, which are the nation's best-selling medications, with almost 150 million prescriptions expected to be filled this year at a cost of $16 billion. The insurers, and some cardiologists, say that switching patients from Lipitor to generic Zocor will be a safe way to cut costs in an era of skyrocketing pharmaceutical prices.

In many cases, they say, patients who now take the most commonly prescribed dosage of Lipitor - 10 milligrams daily - can reduce their cholesterol just as much with Zocor. Lipitor costs $2 or more a day, while generic Zocor will probably cost 35 cents or less.

"If I was taking a statin, I'd want to take the cheapest one, as long as I get to the goal that I wanted to get to," said Dr. Scott Grundy, a researcher who has consulted for both Merck and Pfizer. Dr. Grundy led a federal panel that in 2001 wrote guidelines for treating people with high cholesterol.

But other doctors and epidemiologists say that Lipitor may be the best drug for many patients. "It would not be good medicine to go to a cheaper medicine that has less efficacy in our high-risk patients," said Dr. Robert Vogel, a cardiologist at the University of Maryland, who has been paid by Pfizer to help conduct a clinical trial of Lipitor.

Pfizer says it will fiercely defend Lipitor. "By taking any dose of Lipitor, you will reduce the risk of a cardiovascular event faster and to a greater degree than you will with any other medicine," said J. Patrick Kelly, Pfizer's president of United States pharmaceuticals.

The fight over Lipitor involves a collision of fundamental forces in American health care. Spending on prescription drugs has jumped from $40 billion in 1990 to almost $250 billion this year, and continues to rise faster than overall inflation. But while many Americans say they believe that prescription drugs cost too much, they rarely want to accept generic medicines for themselves instead of more expensive drugs that may be only marginally better - especially since insurers or government agencies pay nearly 70 percent of all drug costs.

Dr. JoAnne Foody, a practicing cardiologist and a professor at Yale University School of Medicine, said she expected to continue prescribing Lipitor for her high-risk patients, who need the maximum possible reduction in cholesterol.

But she said she would be inclined to switch other patients off Lipitor onto generic Zocor, also called simvastatin, if the price difference was significant.


"There are a very large portion of patients where the data for simvastatin are equivalent and sometimes better than the data for Lipitor," Dr. Foody said.

But convincing American patients to give up a brand-name medicine and take a generic drug is not easy, said Albert Rauch, a drug industry analyst at A. G. Edwards, a regional brokerage firm based in St. Louis.

For example, even though the antacid Prilosec is available in an inexpensive over-the-counter form, people prefer three very similar but higher-priced prescription antacids - Prevacid, Nexium and Protonix. Those three will have $10 billion in United States sales this year.

"Therapeutic substitution - substituting one product for another in the same class - just hasn't happened yet," Mr. Rauch said.

And Lipitor has more than Pfizer's marketing dollars working for it. Last month, an analysis of 14 clinical trials by Oxford University and the University of Sydney in Australia found that the more potent the statin and the greater the cholesterol reduction, the lower the risk of heart disease.

Dr. Colin Baigent, who oversaw the analysis, did not directly endorse Lipitor but said he believed that statins were not interchangeable.

"The aim should be to get their LDL cholesterol as low as possible," Dr. Baigent said, referring to low-density lipoprotein, or LDL, cholesterol - commonly called bad cholesterol. "There is potential for many patients benefiting more."

Statins work by interfering with the liver's ability to synthesize LDL cholesterol. All statins are chemically similar, although Lipitor, whose active ingredient is called atorvastatin, is more potent than Zocor, or simvastatin.

The highest dosage of Lipitor (80 milligrams) can reduce cholesterol as much as 57 percent in an average patient, while the highest dosage of simvastatin lowers cholesterol 47 percent. But because most patients are not placed on the highest dosages, the two drugs can achieve comparable cholesterol-lowering results in many cases.

Several large clinical trials have shown that statins reduce the risk of heart attacks and strokes. And statins appear to be safe for most patients, although they can cause muscle weakness in some people and occasionally lead to severe muscle damage.

As a result, statins have become among the most commonly prescribed drugs. This year's forecast of 150 million statin prescriptions in this country is up from 82 million in 1999, according to IMS Health, a Pennsylvania company that compiles data about drug usage.

About half of those prescriptions will be for Lipitor, which is taken by 12 million Americans a year, at a cost of about $8 billion. Worldwide, Lipitor sales are forecast to top $12 billion this year, making the drug by far the best-selling prescription medicine.

Prescription drugs are protected by patents that give their inventors the exclusive right to sell them for up to 20 years, though they usually must spend part of that time gaining federal approval. The patent protection enables the drug maker that discovered the drug to earn back its development costs and make a profit. Otherwise, other companies could make and sell identical versions of the medicine, undercutting the company that invented it.

But when a patent expires, the legal protection disappears. At that point any company can make the drug, as long as it proves to the Food and Drug Administration that its version is identical to the original. The patent on Lipitor is to expire in 2011, but that patent has been challenged.

Zocor will lose its patent protection next June 23, and be opened to competition. Ivax, a generic drug company, has already said it will produce a generic version of the drug, and other companies plan to follow. As more generics enter the market, the price of generic simvastatin could fall to 35 cents a pill or less, compared with $3 or more now, according to Richard T. Evans, a drug industry analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Company.

Merck will lose billions of dollars in annual sales and profits when Zocor loses its patent protection. To recoup its profits, Merck has introduced another anticholesterol drug, Vytorin, which combines Zocor with Zetia, a medicine from Schering-Plough that is not a statin but also reduces cholesterol.

Vytorin is about as effective as Lipitor at lowering cholesterol, so both Merck and Pfizer have a stake in convincing doctors and insurers that they should pay extra for the increased potency their drugs offer over generic Zocor. But because Lipitor is so much more popular than Vytorin, Pfizer has more to lose than Merck and Schering-Plough if generic simvastatin becomes a standard treatment.

Last week, Express Scripts, a Missouri company that helps companies design drug benefit plans, said it would drop Lipitor from its list of preferred drugs. Instead, Express Scripts has devised a plan that will offer patients taking generic simvastatin a much lower co-payment on their prescriptions.

Steve Littlejohn, a spokesman for Express Scripts, said simvastatin was a viable alternative to Lipitor for most patients.

At its minimum 10-milligram dose, Lipitor reduces bad cholesterol an average of 39 percent. In contrast, a 40-milligram dose of simvastatin cuts cholesterol by as much as 41 percent. For patients who need a higher-potency statin, Vytorin will be available, Mr. Littlejohn said. "Consumers and physicians and employers have seen the steady, almost inexorable rise in pharmacy costs, and said nothing can be done," Mr. Littlejohn said. "We're saying something can be done."

Other insurers also say the Zocor patent expiration is an opportunity to reduce drug spending. Robert Seidman, the chief pharmacy officer for WellPoint, the nation's largest publicly traded health insurer, estimated that wide use of simvastatin could reduce the nation's drug costs by $2 billion or more a year. To encourage patients to switch from Lipitor, WellPoint plans to offer members four to six months of free simvastatin as soon as generic versions are available, he said.

But Pfizer is fighting back. To demonstrate Lipitor's benefits in different kinds of patients, Pfizer has conducted 400 clinical trials on Lipitor, covering 80,000 people. Lipitor's edge over other statins goes beyond its superior ability to lower cholesterol, said Mr. Kelly.

The data from those clinical trials has enabled Pfizer to repeatedly broaden Lipitor's label of approved uses, changes that must be approved by the F.D.A. Last month, the F.D.A. said Pfizer could begin to market Lipitor for the prevention of heart attacks and strokes in diabetics. To build brand loyalty, Pfizer also has thousands of sales representatives discussing Lipitor with doctors and spends at least $60 million annually to advertise Lipitor to consumers, according to Brandweek magazine. Pfizer declined to discuss how much it spends to market Lipitor.

Dr. David Hyman, professor of medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, said he did not expect many patients to be switched off Lipitor. He pointed to drugs that lower blood pressure, where expensive branded medicines dominate cheaper generics despite extensive research showing the generics work as well. "So much of the market is really not price-responsive."

But other experts on drug benefits said they believed that generic simvastatin might put a dent in Lipitor's sales, because companies, government agencies and patients had become so concerned about drug costs.

"It's very likely that a large portion of the market, especially those covered by managed care organizations, will switch to generic Zocor," said Albert Wertheimer, a professor of pharmacy at Temple University. "It seems like a reasonable thing to try."  

Immernoch bei Pfizer, wird das nicht langweilig?

Viele Grüße Abenteurer

infolive! Aktuelle Nachrichten

 

Im Gegenteil, ich finde das sehr unterhaltsam. Hab bislang gutes Geld beim Spekulieren auf den Ausgang von Gerichtsprozessen verdient - am meisten im Sommer 2000 mit Philip Morris (MO), die in Florida verklagt wurden und den Streitwert für die zweite Instanz hinterlegen sollten. Dies war aber wegen 500.000 geschädigten Florida-Rauchern, die jeder zig-Millionen verlangten, mehr als es der Börsenkapitalisierung von MO entsprach. Folglich glaubten viele, die Fa. müsse pleite gehen. Das war aber, wie wir heute wissen, nicht der Fall. Den entscheidenden Hinweis fand ich im Kleingedruckten: Das Florida-Recht hat die Klausel, dass diese Hinterlegungspflicht hinfällig wird, falls dies zum Konkurs einer Fa. führt. Folglich griff sie nicht. MO stand 2000 bei 19 Dollar und hatte 10 Prozent Dividendenrendite. Heute steht MO bei 75 - fast viermal höher - und bringt immer noch 4,3 % Dividende.

Bei Pfizer ist es nach dem England-Urteil sehr wahrscheinlich, dass der US-Prozess ebenso entschieden wird. Dann macht Pfizer einen Satz auf 30 Dollar. Es gibt also in den nächsten drei Monaten potenziell über 20 % zu gewinnen. Das Abwärtspotenzial ist viel kleiner, da PFE bereits jetzt schon so gepreist ist, als hätten sie Lipitor komplett aus dem Programm genommen.


 

Ich sehe schon, Du bist immer noch voll dabei. Gut so, ich mochte Deine Beiträge immer sehr. Gerade habe ich kein Geld flüssig, aber vielleicht kommt in den nächsten Monaten etwas rein, dann sehe ich mir Pfizer noch mal an.

Lass es Dir gut gehen, viele Grüße

Abenteurer

infolive! Aktuelle Nachrichten

 

hallo bin wieder mit 5000 dabei,habe gestern tui verkauft bevor mich die vogelgrippe ausser gefecht setzt.denke nach den zahlen gehts hoch  

Pfizer: Gewinn im dritten Quartal mehr als halbiert, Aktie -3,2 Prozent  
20.10.2005 13:12:00


   
Der weltgrößte Pharmakonzern Pfizer Inc. (ISIN US7170811035/ WKN 852009) meldete am Donnerstag, dass sich sein Gewinn im dritten Quartal mehr als halbiert hat, was mit schwächeren Umsätzen beim Medikament Celebrex, Sonderbelastungen sowie mit rückläufigen Verkaufszahlen bei anderen Präparaten aufgrund konkurrierender Generikaprodukte zusammenhängt.
Der Nettogewinn betrug 1,59 Mrd. Euro bzw. 22 Cents pro Aktie, gegenüber 3,34 Mrd. Dollar bzw. 44 Cents pro Aktie im Vorjahr. Vor Einmaleffekten lag der Gewinn bei 51 Cents pro Aktie. Der Umsatz ging um 5 Prozent auf 12,19 Mrd. Dollar zurück.

Analysten waren im Vorfeld von einem Gewinn von 48 Cents pro Aktie und einem Umsatz von 12,52 Mrd. Dollar ausgegangen. Für das laufende Quartal stellen sie ein EPS-Ergebnis von 50 Cents bei Erlösen von 13,71 Mrd. Dollar in Aussicht.

Für das Gesamtjahr schätzt Pfizer das bereinigte EPS-Ergebnis nun auf 1,92 bis 1,94 Dollar. Die durchschnittliche Markterwartung für 2005 liegt hier bei 1,98 Dollar.

Die Aktie von Pfizer verliert an der NYSE vorbörslich aktuell 3,21 Prozent auf 23,20 Dollar.
 
Quelle: Finanzen.net / Aktiencheck.de AG