Commerce Resources is a perfect example of a dedicated management team sticking with an excellent property and executing on their business plan (Dave Hodge and Chris).
But more importantly, it is all about believing in the property and carefully watching the timing of events.
If you run a 5 year chart, it becomes strikingly obvious that CCE has completed the early speculative stage of a junior mining company. I am guessing that only about 3-5% of penny stocks make it this far. If you review all their major press releases during this time, they have explored, financed, drilled, proven resource, conducted metallurgical studies, positioned within the Tantallum/Nobium market, striking relationships, and now ready (or at least very close) to potentially starting a producing mine.
Here are my thoughts on the next steps if they continue to execute efficiently and smartly.
It was almost exactly 12 months ago when the price moved sharply from the $0.10 range into the $0.30 range on the closing of a Private Placment. Then it traded for 1 year (not one month but yet another year), new players began to position, loose stock was absorbed. There was then a 3M share day in the middle of November 2006 which set the stage clearly indicating others were beginning to take this seriously. It was about this time (fall of 2006) that results from the Upper Fir were reported and things began to get interesting.
In my opinion, timing is perfect but it took 4 years!!!! The recent execution of warrants raising yet another $2.3M of capital demonstrated the believe by management and shareholders.
Here is my hope over the next 1-3-6-9 month time frame (and it will take this long with many ups and downs in the stock price). The recent research report (although we know it was paid for), puts everything in context, establishing a $0.94 fair market but without the recent Upper Fir results (statements indicated that a resource estimate for Upper Fir is expected shortly - let's say 4-6 weeks). Preliminary estimates put the Upper Fir doubling the resource. Putting this in context, this will result in more news from the company, and then my guess is an updated research report with higher value (perhaps $2.00 or more).
And not including more drilling and proving more resource.
What is the probability of Commerce either taking the property to production or being acquired by another company already in the tantallum/nobium business (certainly better than 4 years ago).
What is the current risk. Let's review this, they have 1) a proven 43-101 resource, 2) cash for more drilling, 3) good distribution of stock (listed on Frankfurt exchange), 4) Gartner Lee engaged for environmental approvals, 5) distributors in place, among other key items.
Conclusion: in my opinion, this is a highly leveraged opportunity with a significant amount of the risk removed. If they continue to execute their business plan, this might well be one of the few juniors that actually make it to prodcution.