Zinserhöhung in Amiland wahrscheinlich doch um 0,5 %

Factory orders roll ahead
March orders at U.S. factories rise 2.2%, above analysts' predictions
May 03, 2000: 10:22 a.m. ET


NEW YORK (CNNfn) - Orders placed with U.S. manufacturers regained momentum in March after stalling the month before, the government reported Wednesday, an indication that demand for American-made goods, both at home and abroad, still remains strong.

Orders at U.S. factories jumped 2.2 percent, the Commerce Department said, above the 1.5 percent gain economists polled by Briefing.com had expected and the revised flat reading registered the month before. February's orders were originally reported as a 0.8 percent drop. Excluding transportation, orders rose 1.9 percent after gaining 1.5 percent in February.

Strengthening demand abroad for American-made goods -- particularly in the Far East -- helped fuel March's rise, providing more evidence that the U.S. economy is running at an exceptionally strong pace. The Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank, is expected to lift its benchmark rate by at least a quarter point at its May 16 policy meeting.

Orders for electronic goods, transportation and automotive products led the overall monthly gain, according to the Commerce Department. Orders for durable goods rose 3.5 percent in March, while orders for non-durable goods rose 0.6 percent, led by paper, petroleum and coal products.  




So, ich hol mir heute noch ein paar Puts auf DOW oder S&P
- auf jeden Fall erstmal raus aus Amiland !!!!  

einige Analysten tippen aus eine Erhöhung um 0,50%

Greenspan ist aber bekannt für seine "Trippelschritte" um 0,25%

Also erst mal abwarten.  

 

 

 

Productivity gains slow
1Q worker output slower than expected; wage costs show surprise strength
May 04, 2000: 8:55 a.m. ET


NEW YORK (CNNfn) - U.S. worker productivity rose at a smaller-than expected rate in the first three months of the year while wage costs showed surprising strength, the government said Thursday.

Productivity, a measure of output, rose at an annual rate of 2.4 percent, the Labor Department said. That's lower than the 3.5 percent gain expected by analysts surveyed by Briefing.com, and the upwardly revised 6.9 percent gain in the fourth quarter.

And labor costs -- a measure of what companies spend on workers, rose 1.8 percent, well above the 1.0 percent jump that Wall Street expected and in contrast to the revised 2.9 percent decline in the fourth quarter.

"The headline numbers look a little worse than expected putting some pressure on the Fed," Gail Dudack, market strategist at UBS Warburg told CNNfn's Before Hours.

That pressure was evident in the markets early Thursday. S&P 500 futures, higher before the release, fell following the data.

Economists say the rise in productivity over the last year, much of it driven by new technology, has kept inflation under wraps. Rising output improves company profit, more than offsetting wage gains that have come as unemployment has fallen to historical lows.

But Thursday's news could change that model, putting more pressure on the Federal Reserve to aggressively raise interest rate later this month

The news is just the latest data for the first three months of 2000. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced, advanced at a 5.4 percent pace in the first quarter. And employment costs for companies posted their strongest jump in more than 10 years and inflation surged.

The data, which came 24 hours ahead of April's closely watched jobs report, was the first read on first-quarter productivity. The figures will be revised twice



Kann nur nochmal wiederholen  :  raus aus Amiland  oder Bestände absichern !!!!!!!
 

Hi !

Richtig - Produktivität deutlich schwächer als erwartet - und Löhne höher als erwartet.

Zur Zeit glaube ich auch eher an die +0.5 als an 0.25% Zinserhöhung.

Würde aber sagen, dass etwa " 0,35 " schon in den derzeitigen Kursen enthalten ist.

Einige Werte haben stark abgenommen - sodass ich mir zwar keinen Crash mehr erwarte - aber sicher noch mal gute "Einstiegskurse".

Zumindest mittelfristig sollte man unbedingt auch an der Nasdaq investiert sein (Cisco, CMGI und Broadvision sind da Blue Chips - auch was die derzeitigen Kurse anbelangt - hoffe alle 3 nochmal zu etwa 10% niedrigeren Kursen zu bekommen).

Gruss
HAHAHA  

Zinserhöhungen und allgemeine Lohnkosten wirken sich doch eher auf die Erträge der Unternehmen im Dow als auf die im Nasdaq aus. Die jüngeren Unternehmen sind nicht so abhängig vom freien Geldmarkt, da sie sich weniger über Kredite finanzieren und eh wesentlich höhere pro-Kopf-Umsätze fahren als die sog. old economy. Eine negative Reaktion des Nasdaq wäre also nur psychlogisch zu erklären.

Bedenklicher ist da schon der Prduktivitätsrückgang - das heißt nämlich, daß die Unternehmen die in sie gesteckten Erwartungen nicht in vollem Umfang erfüllen können und die Fantasie die immernoch in den Kursen steckt überzogen sein könnte.

Raus aus Amiland ist vielleicht etwas übertrieben formuliert - eine gewisse Zurückhaltung allerdings durchaus angebracht.

FB

 

Gerade die Lohnkosten für Programmierer, Technikern, IT-Leuten sind doch stark im steigen   - das betrifft gerade die jungen High-Techwerte ganz besonders.

Eine Zinserhöhung um 0.5% wird ALLE Aktien in den USA betreffen. Der Dow hat auf die Nasdaq eine viel stärkeren Einfluss als umgekehrt.

Kommen weitere Daten, die für + 0.5% sprechen - und dann tatsächlich +0,5 wird der Dow schwer über der 10000 zu halten sein.

Vorsicht ist angebracht - starke Schwankungen sind absolut denkbar.
Aber ich bin Deiner Meinung - mittel- und langfristig sollte man zumindest teilweise auch an der NAsdaq investiert sein. - Insbesondere, wenn es mal wieder heftiger runter geht - etwas invstieren.

Miros






 

N'Abend allemiteinander !
Ich bin selbst noch (und bleib wohl auch) in ein paar Nasdaq-Werte investiert - dirket oder über ein Zertifikat, hab mir aber wie geschrieben Puts auf den S&P 500 geholt. Vorerst würde ich ZUMINDEST kein fresh-money drüben anlegen - auch wegen des Dollarkurses.
Die Daten sehen aber alle nicht sehr gut aus, besonders in der Kombination wird's langsam ungesund.
In der Süddeutschen war übrigens ein Interview mir dem Chefstrategen und -volkswirt von HSBC. Tenor : wenn die Amis keine SOFT-LANDING hinbekommen - und danach sieht's für ihn nicht aus - sind bis zum Herbst bis zu -25% beim S&P und bis zu -20% beim NÄS drin. Das haöte ich zwar für übertrieben, aber STEIGEN werden die Kurse wohl kaum - es sei denn man hat ein sehr glückliches Händchen beim Stockpicking.  

Der Dollar steigt in den nächsten 2 Jahren auf mind. 3.40 DM !!
Elliot sagt das ist so !! -- und bisher hatte seine Theorie
Erfolg !
Das gesamte Umfeld hilft ihm (dem Elliot) dabei.

Wies wrklich ausgeht - keine Ahnnung.

Aber ich setze auf steigenden Dollar !!!

Jopius
 

rechne auch mit einem eiter steigenden Dollar - und genau deshalb - keine EURO calls und Zinserhöhung um 0,5% - oder sagen wir so - auch wegen Zinserhöhung wird Dollar weitersteigen.


HAHAHA  

Wall St. mulls jobs report
Data on new jobs, wages and unemployment key to Friday's markets
May 05, 2000: 9:05 a.m. ET


NEW YORK (CNNfn) - Wall Street finally got to see one of the things it has been waiting for Friday - April's somewhat stronger-than-expected report on employment and wages - sending stock futures down in before-hours trading.

The report, seen as a key clue about the future of interest rates, included an unemployment rate slightly below expectations - at 3.9 percent, the lower rate in 30 years. A survey by Briefing.com forecast that the rate would drop to 4.0 percent from 4.1 percent in March.

But the even more closely watched figure on average hourly wages rose only 0.4 percent, about in line with forecasts. The government reported 458,000 new jobs in the quarter, although 73,000 of those were census workers. The Briefing.com survey forecasts only 325,000 new jobs.

With Federal Reserve officials making comments suggesting a heightened alert to signs of inflation, the report will be carefully scrutinized for clues about further interest rate hikes expected later this month, when Fed policy-makers meet.

Some observers say reports such as Friday's jobs data will have a tremendous impact on the central bank's policy-makers, led by Chairman Alan Greenspan, as they mull whether to raise rates a quarter or half percentage point when they meet May 16.

"I do not think he (Greenspan) has made up his mind," said David Jones, chief economist for Aubrey G. Lanston, in an interview early Friday on CNNfn's Ahead of the Curve. "He may wait until the very last minute before he tips his hand." (268KB WAV) (268KB AIFF)

Early indications suggest U.S. stocks will open lower, as the futures dropped about a half hour after the release of the jobs data.



The Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 24.50 to 3,565 early Friday. They were 33.48 points below the Nasdaq fair value, a benchmark set daily by traders to balance demand for the future contracts relative to the underlying demand for the component stocks, leading traders to expect a higher open for the Nasdaq market.

S&P futures, the most widely watched futures contract, dropped 7.80 points to 1,415.40 on the Globex trading system. That was 2.48 points below its fair value of 1,417.88, suggesting a lower open for that broader stock market measure.

The S&P futures are also watched as an indicator of the Dow Jones industrial average, with one point of difference between the futures index and fair value equal to about eight points on the Dow Jones industrial average. So the S&P futures suggested the Dow would open down about 20 points Friday.

The Dow Jones industrial futures themselves were down 88 points to 10,435.

On Thursday, U.S. stocks finished mixed on some of the lightest volume of 2000. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 67.64 points, or 0.7 percent, to 10,412.49, while the S&P 500 index slipped 5.72 points to 1,409.38. But the Nasdaq composite index gained 12.93 points to 3,720.24.


Overseas markets also see light trading


Trading and volatility were also light in Asia Friday in advance of the U.S. employment report. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index slipped 45.43 points, or 0.3 percent, to 15,268.64. Singapore's Straits Times index edged down 2.44 points to 2,118.36.

Taiwan's benchmark Weighted index rallied 3.2 percent, after the island's finance minister announced measures to help cash-strapped firms. The index had fallen during recent sessions amid concern about Taiwan's relations with China.

Tokyo's markets remained closed as the three-day Golden Week holiday reached an end.

Major markets rose in light morning trading in Europe Friday. London's benchmark FTSE 100 gained 59.10 points to 6,258.70, while the Paris CAC 40 edged up 32.59 points to 6,524.33. In Frankfurt, the Xetra Dax index rose 53.02 points to 7,439.73, but Zurich's SMI lost 20.90 points to 7,479.

In the Treasury market, the 30-year bond dropped 19/32 of a point in price in trading early Friday, sending its yield, which moves in the opposite direction, to 6.20 percent, compared with 6.15 percent in trading late Thursday. The 10-year note, which some observers now consider their Treasury benchmark, slipped about 11/32 of a point, which raised its yield to 6.48 percent from 6.43 percent late Thursday.

In the currency market, the dollar weakened slightly against both the euro but gained on the yen in early trading Friday. The euro rose to 89.99 cents from 88.99 cents in late trading Thursday. Meanwhile, the dollar rose to 108.30 yen in early trading, compared with 108.20 yen in late trading Thursday.





So, da das Tageshoch mal wieder mit dem Börsenschluß in Europa zusammengefallen ist und die Amis selber wieder am Verkaufen sind, werd ich mich in der nächsten Euphorie von meinen Amiwerten verabschieden - ist aber momentan noch zu früh.
 

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Dismissing a strong employment report, stocks staged an impressive across-the-board rally Friday, led by the tech sector. Still, buyers showed a lack of conviction as witnessed by the rangebound trading and extremely low volume.

There again appears to be a start of the mentality that the tech and biotech group will be more immune than the rest  of the market to higher interest rates, notes Terry Gabriel, technical analyst at IDEAglobal.com

"The Internet and biotech sectors are coming back," he added, though the light volume on the upside denotes continued caution. "We're still dealings with the [scars] from the vicious sell off in April."

Joe Liro, equity strategist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, said the market is displaying surprising resilience despite increased expectations of a 50 basis point rate hike at the next Fed meeting.

It appears, he continued, that removing the obstacle of the employment report has relieved the market and brought out the buyers.

The tech sector saw the greatest buying interest in Internet and networking issues. The latter climbed thanks to nifty gains in bellwether Cisco Systems. The broader market saw the best buying interest in the drug, biotech and airline sectors.


Ist doch merkwürdig stabil.Sollte die Zinserhöhung schon eingespeist sein?
 

Vielleicht ist man der Meinung, daß dann, wenn man jetzt um 0,5% erhöht,erstmal Ruhe ist.

Schließlich ist ja auch Wahljahr...

Der scheidende Clinton hat heute abend übrigens gesagt, daß man sich über eine steigende Inflation aufgrund des wieder sinkenden Ölpreises keine Sorgen zu machen brauche.

Zu guter Letzt hat Ralph Acampora seine 12-Monats-Schätzung für die Nasdaq veröffentlicht (vgl. aktuelle Börse-Online). Er erwartet einen Indexstand bei ca. 6000 Punkten. Naja, ein Bär war der noch nie.

Gruß
EXPRO  

Die Zinsen werden um 0,5 % Prozent erhöht, weil ja bald Präsidentenwahl im Amiland ist! Und während des Wahlkampfes soll es keine weiteren Zinserhöhungen geben, darum gleich 0,5 %