shares of eCobalt Solutions (6% of issued and outstanding) for C$0.375/sh. To fund the acquisition, made “for investment purposes”, First Cobalt intends to issue 21,265,809 shares at C$0.17/sh. The common shares issued will be subject to a statutory hold of four months plus one day and customary regulatory and stock exchange approvals. What’s positive from the perspective of an eCobalt shareholder perspective? • As described in Lifeline thrown, published 9 April, eCobalt and Jervois Mining (JRV: ASX | Not rated) announced a friendly agreement to combine. Under the terms of the arrangement, Jervois will acquire all the issued and outstanding common shares of eCobalt that it does not already own (7.3Msh or 4.5%). Each share of eCobalt will be exchanged for 1.65 shares of Jervois, representing an implied offer price of C$0.36 per eCobalt share based on the closing price of Jervois’ shares at 29 March. • Jervois’ share price has appreciated in the interim such that the offer is now worth just under C$0.44 to the eCobalt shareholder. This is a 34% premium to eCobalt’s current share price. The large premium suggests skepticism on the part of the market that the deal will close. First Cobalt’s gambit may, however, nudge the market to close the gap somewhat. At the current level, the market is valuing eCobalt at 0.21x our NAV estimate as compared to the 0.28x mean multiple for covered non-precious metal peers. What’s positive from the perspective of a First Cobalt shareholder? • From an investment perspective, First Cobalt is betting that the New Jervois deal closes as it captures a quick ~34% return. • First Cobalt, like all pre-cash flow companies, ongoingly seeks capital. With this deal, the company has uncovered an investor willing to invest in its business plan at market – a considerably better prospect than tapping the moribund Street. • Although a 6% interest in eCobalt is insufficient to block the New Jervois deal, the move may cause pause for reflection amongst existing eCobalt shareholders that must approve it (at least 2/3 of the votes cast at a special meeting expected in Q3/19). Does this give First Cobalt leverage in its quest to gain access to feed for its Cobalt, Ontario refinery restart (see Refining its options, 3 April)? After all, there may be operational synergies between First Cobalt’s Iron Creek Cobalt Project and eCobalt’s Idaho Cobalt Project, both located within a few kilometres on the Idaho Cobalt Belt. • First Cobalt is trading at 0.17x our NAV estimate as compared to the 0.28x mean multiple for covered non-precious metal peers. As we have noted before, the growth in EV sales penetration is inexorable. Automobile manufacturers appear to be relying on battery manufacturers to build the necessary raw materials supply chain and, in our view, we have not seen sufficient investment in that supply chain to feed EV demand as forecast in 2023-2024 and beyond. We speculate that a period of consolidation in the battery materials space may be upon us, especially given the low valuations applied by the market today. Analyst Certification Each authoring analyst of Canaccord Genuity whose name appears on the front page of this research hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in this research accurately reflect the authoring analyst’s personal, independent and objective views about any and all of the designated investments or relevant issuers discussed herein that are within such authoring analyst’s coverage universe and (ii) no part of the authoring analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the authoring analyst in the research. Analysts employed outside the US are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be associated persons of Canaccord Genuity LLC and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Sector Coverage Individuals identified as “Sector Coverage” cover a subject company’s industry in the identified jurisdiction, but are not authoring analysts of the report. Investment Recommendation Date and time of first dissemination: May 01, 2019, 16:23 ET Date and time of production: May 01, 2019, 16:23 ET Compendium Report This report covers six or more subject companies and therefore is a compendium report and Canaccord Genuity and its affiliated companies hereby direct the reader to the specific disclosures related to the subject companies discussed in this report, which may be obtained at the following website (provided as a hyperlink if this report is being read electronically) http:// disclosures.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx; or by sending a request to Canaccord Genuity Corp. Research, Attn: Disclosures, P.O. Box 10337 Pacific Centre, 2200-609 Granville Street, Vancouver, BC, Canada V7Y 1H2; or by sending a request by email to disclosures@cgf.com. The reader may also obtain a copy of Canaccord Genuity’s policies and procedures regarding the dissemination of research by following the steps outlined above. Past performance In line with Article 44(4)(b), MiFID II Delegated Regulation, we disclose price performance for the preceding five years or the whole period for which the financial instrument has been offered or investment service provided where less than five years. Please note price history refers to actual past performance, and that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future price and/or performance. Target Price / Valuation Methodology: eCobalt Solutions Inc. - ECS We project Idaho Cobalt Project cash flows on our spot pricing discounted at 8% WACC to generate a $138M project NAV. Net corporate adjustments of $141M include $108M raised (at C$0.72/sh, 314M shares, fully funded). We apply a 1.0x multiple to generate a target NAVPS of C$0.89, supporting a rounded target price of C$0.90. First Cobalt Corp. - FCC We value First Cobalt’s assets on a spot cobalt basis, currently US$28/lb. Our valuation yields a project NAV of $244 million or $0.58/ sh. We add net corporate adjustments of $35 million or $0.08/sh with 421 million shares outstanding. We apply a 1.0x multiple to the corporate NAVPS of $0.66 to yield our target NAVPS of $0.66, which supports a rounded target price of C$0.70. Risks to achieving Target Price / Valuation: eCobalt Solutions Inc. - ECS In our view, the primary risks to our valuation and target for eCobalt include: our cobalt price deck, which assumes significant supply constraints at a time of burgeoning growth in lithium-ion battery use; the company’s reliance on capital markets to fund development; and potential mining challenges in that veins and lenses may be relatively narrow. First Cobalt Corp. - FCC Aside from the usual risks associated with exploration and development, risks center on cobalt pricing, the technical assumptions we have made in our project valuations in advance of the company’s delivery of technical reports, and potential risks from environmental and safety legacies in the Cobalt mining camp in Ontario. http://cdn.ceo.ca/1eck4d3-Canaccord%20note%20on%20ECobalt.pdf
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