Aixtron purpose of this thread

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Thank you
  baggo-mh

 

Hi all,

I have been a bit in the background in the past months, so its time for an update and I have added to my position recently.

I wanted to share some thoughts on valuation of the stock.
- I think the share price decline after the Q4 results and the AMS/Osram Micro-LED issues can be well understood, the market worried about the lack of order intake guidance, a wide revenue guidance range for 2024 and a general perceived weakness in EV demand (look at Teslas Q1 delivieries, look at the slower production rates of German OEMs in Germany etc).
- Consensus EBIT expectations for 2024 have declined from ca. € 188m to now € 168m, a decline of -11%. The share price declined by -26% (!) since the results and -40% YTD (!!). Consensus now expects 2024 sales of € 677m, at the 168m EBIT that implies a 25% margin, both - sales and EBIT margin - are just at the mid-point of the guided range of 630-720m and 24-26%.
- Given the CEO comments during the Q4 call "with the current project pipeline we aim for the upper end of the range" as well as Aixtrons history over the last 3-4 years (raising / narrowing guidance with Q3 results at the latest), I think that the current consensus estimates seem fair, or said differently, are less at risk of further downgrades. Therefor, lets look at valuation.

- Looking at Aixtrons trading multiple I always focus on EV/EBIT. Historically the stock traded in a range of 18-20x. So where does it trade today?
- The EV is market cap - net debt. The market cap at € 23.20 share price is € 2.6bn, there is no debt but € 182m cash, so the EV is € 2.43bn. At consensus EBIT of € 168m, the multiple is 14.5x 2024e EV/EBIT. With the EBIT estimate somewhat de-risked as we discussed above.

- Given that I am a longer-term Shareholder, I would even dare to look at the 2025 multiple, which of course is lower, given that the CEO indicated his expectation for double digit revenue growth and I expect EBIT margin improvement due to better product mix (more SIC/GAN vs. traditional LED business). On top, Free cash flow should improve as the large capex project for the new cleanroom is concluded. I would guess a 2025e EV/EBIT multiple of around 12.5x at least.

However, we need a catalyst for the stock to really recover. And here is the bad news, I dont think that the Q1 results, due end of April, will provide that catalyst just yet - maybe rather a negative catalyst - at least I would not rule that out! I think Q1 orders may well be weaker and that can add to the fear around the EV slowdown etc. Lets hope that Management can provide some more optimism about the project pipeline.
But at some point, that should be priced in at these share price levels.

Just looking at the share price chart, I would clearly hope that the stock does not break below the € 20 mark, but that is hard to say. Given that I remain convinced of the potential for SIC and GAN (and eventually MicroLED) I regard those levels as further buying opportunities.

One last word: Another negative is the fact that the long-time IR has left to pursue new opportunities, the new IR only starts in April/May.. the previous person had a lot of trust in the market and was strong in communication. So there is some vaccum in that area as well.

Keen to hear your thoughts and additions.

Best regards,
Fel


 

Thanks for the TI article. That business is definitily coming Aixtron's way.

The analysis on SiC uniformity is also very interesting and confirms thc statements Felx made during a call on a question from Olivia Honeychurch from Jeffries

Taking about jeffries: 

Jefferies

Aktienanalyse 2. April 2024

Bedenken hinsichtlich eines SiC-Aktienverlusts unbegründet: Die jüngste Investorendebatte konzentrierte sich auf Aktienverluste bei WOLF und ON, die unserer Meinung nach unbegründet sind. Nach unserem besten Wissen bleibt Aixtron aufgrund der geringeren Kosten pro Wafer und der vergleichbaren Einheitlichkeit, die ihr Batch-Prozessor im Vergleich zu Einzelwafer-Werkzeugen bietet, der Hauptlieferant von MOCVD für beide. Wir stellen außerdem fest, dass die Planetentechnologie von Aixtron über 20 Jahre alt ist und daher in der großvolumigen, gleichmäßigen Epitaxie sehr ausgereift ist, insbesondere im Vergleich zu den neueren Plattformen der Wettbewerber. Wir gehen davon aus, dass der Anteil von Aixtron bis Ende des Geschäftsjahres 25 die 50-Prozent-Marke überschreiten wird, unterstützt durch Gewinne bei weiteren Big-5-Kunden sowie SiC-Herausforderern wie Samsung, Bosch, Mitsubishi Electric, Foxconn und einigen chinesischen Marktteilnehmern.

LED-Segment soll dieses Jahr stark wachsen: Trotz Bedenken dass Aixtron vom Rückzug von Apple betroffen sein wird microLED, mgmt hat diese Einnahmen kürzlich bekräftigt soll im GJ24 auf einen „hohen zweistelligen Mio.-Euro-Betrag“ ansteigen.Basierend auf unserer Schätzung für das Geschäftsjahr 23 von 50 Mio. € bedeutet dies 30-40 % Wachstum. Stärke kommt von neuen/bestehenden Kunden Aufbau von Pilotlinien, zu denen unserer Meinung nach Sony gehört,

Samsung, Playnitride und andere. Inzwischen hat Aixtron sagte, dass die Mini-LED-Umsätze ein ähnliches Niveau erreichen sollten microLED in diesem Jahr, da sich der Endmarkt erholt. Unsere Prognosen gehen von einem Umsatz von 25 Mio. € für das Geschäftsjahr 24 aus sehen konservativ aus.

Konnte den Jeffries Artikel leider nur in deutsch hier einstellen.

Gruß
baggo-mh 

 

Hier noch die Antwort der IR von Aixtron, auf die Gerüchte zu den verlorenen Kunden

vielen Dank für Ihre Frage.

Es ist für uns nicht einfach zu Gerüchten Stellung zu nehmen, die eher unspezifisch und keiner konkreten Quelle zuzuordnen sind.

Wir können unsererseits feststellen:

- Wir gewinnen neue Kunden im Siliziumkarbid-Bereich und sehen nicht, dass wir bei bestehenden Kunden Anteile verlieren; wir erwarten, dass wir unseren Marktanteil weiter ausbauen werden.
- Wir haben positive Rückmeldungen von Wolfspeed und OnSemi erhalten.
- Zur ebenfalls kolportierten Frage der Eignung für größere 8‘‘ Wafer: Der G10 SiC wurde zunächst für 200 mm (8‘‘) Wafer entwickelt - später wurde er (sozusagen rückwärts) auf kleinere 150 mm Wafer erweitert.

Ich hoffe, dies ist hilfreich.  

minimale Auswirkungen auf die Produktionskapazitäten berichten Foxconn und TSMC - Laut Markus Koch.

Gruß
baggo-mh

 

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. You are voicing a lot of concerns.

"However, we need a catalyst for the stock to really recover."

There are 2 catalyst imho that could help the stock to recover:
1.) Norrowing the guidance range with the publication of the Q1 results
2.) Announcement of another Top5 SiC customer win (Infineon or STMicro)  

Like you I am in it for the long run.

Greetings
 baggo-mh

 

Taiwanischer Chiphersteller TSMC nimmt Produktion nach Erdbeben wieder auf

https://de.marketscreener.com/kurs/aktie/TAIWAN-SEMICONDUCTO…

Ganz im Gegensatz zu dem was N-TV gerade immer noch verbreitet.

Gruß
 baggo-mh

 

im Nachbar Forum hat jemand das Thema Übernahme Kandidat angerissen .
Wie ist deine Meinung dazu ?  
So eine  Übernahme Fantasie würde dem Kurs auch gut tun .. und liegt eigentlich auf der Hand .
Die Chinesen dürfen ja nicht ...

LG derkralle  

Rumors and Stories can be lies especially about stocks.  Those film uniformity numbers from the improved G10-SiC don't lie.  I trust the Aixtron engineers anytime vs. stock market operators who have a single motive: money.

This particular information interests me the most because it is new to me:

- Zur ebenfalls kolportierten Frage der Eignung für größere 8‘‘ Wafer: Der G10 SiC wurde zunächst für 200 mm (8‘‘) Wafer entwickelt - später wurde er (sozusagen rückwärts) auf kleinere 150 mm Wafer erweitert.

One must separate the 200mm from the 150mm performance and their markets.

That explains why G10-SiC initially did not win the 150mm market as I have written earlier.  Now I realize the tool originally was not developed for the 150mm.  The situation has changed quite recently as the G10-SiC has come in with much improved and even better 150mm performance against the competitors based on single wafer designs.  

However, the previous generation batch reactors such as the G5 WWC did lose the competition on 150mm SiC epi.  On that, the customers have spoken loud and clear.
 

i find it interesing that they said the Osram Story won't have any effect on Guidance.
Does this mean Osram didn't order from Aixtron? Who is the supplier for the planed MicroLED production line?

i wonder what made Apple change their mind from own production to buying the Displays? I guess they postponed maybe for some years and thought we cancel now and buy later when BOE etc. can offer them for a chaper price?  

but would the customers change to the G10 150mm when their plants are now equipped with the competitors machinery?  

Als ich hier eingestiegen bin zwischen 2004 und 2007 gab es das Gerücht, dass Applied Materials Interesse habe.

Als die Chinesen das Unternehmen 2016 kaufen wollten hat man von Applied Materials nichts gehört. Damals stand der Kur bei 3,xx und es hat keine Gegenangebote zu den 6 der Chinesen gegeben.

Ich kann mir eine Übernahme ehrlich gesagt nicht vorstellen.

Gruß
 baggo-mh

 

Aixtron delievered all exisiting MicroLED order from AMS-Osram in Q4. Apple does not stop the microLED project (like the car project), they are just not ordering from AMS-Osram. Why? Maybe soemone is cheaper or can deliver quicker than AMS.

CWL1 wrote in post #1640

In there, Fucai is Ennostar and Huacan is HCsemitek, both are customers of Aixtron.  Hope you could get some sense based on your own translation:

PlayNitride is also an option. Don't forget the first OLED screens for the iPhone Apple ordered from Samsung, as they were lightyears ahead of anyone else with that display technology.

So for Aixtron microLED is pretty much alive.

Greetings
baggo-mh

 

empfiehlt den Aixtron GaN und SiC Kunden Navitas als unentdeckten KI Profiteur.

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/guenstige-einstiegschance-alternative-zu-nvidia-bei-dieser-chip-aktie-sehen-analysten-kraeftiges-wachstumspotenzial-13390867

Gruß
baggo-mh

 

Es ist desaströs, was mit Aixtron gerade gemacht wird. Es gibt kein halten mehr. Es geht nur noch ins tiefe Loch. Es wäre schön wenn Jefferies angeben würde ab wann wir die 50 € Kursziel erreichen sollen.
 

This is the presentation for launching G10-GaN in Taiwan last September.  Today due to the rumor many people have doubts about G10-SiC against the single wafer tool competitors.  I wish Aixtron has a similar presentation on G10-SiC with technical details to put those doubts to rest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlIiUnrXHdc  

die wahrscheinlich einen neuen Lieferanten gefunden haben.

AIXTRON erhält Gold Supplier Award von BOE HC SemiTek für Zusammenarbeit bei Micro LED 

https://www.boerse.de/nachrichten/AIXTRON-erhaelt-Gold-Supplier-Award-von-BOE-HC-SemiTek-fuer-Zusammenarbeit-bei-Micro-LED/35934280

Gruß
 baggo-mh

 

it's just weird buliding a production line and then cancel it. well it's apple, they have enough cash :)

well, lets hope the supplier uses Aixtron :)

i hope at the Q1 CC Aixtron will destroy the roumers and make things absolutely clear. the stock development sinxe q4/2023 is just bad.

i guess the gold supplier award concerning microled might help a bit.

i wonder if they might get some push when they try to get a list in Nasdaq but get more US attention.  

This chart is self-explanatory.  The numbers in black are historical data from Aixtron's annual reports. The red numbers in 2024 are implied projections.  

Is 2024 turning into an exceptional year?  The inventories expensed each year is always bigger than the yearend total inventories  the year before.  A 2023 yearend 395m total inventories imply 395m/40%= 988m future sales.  You make the call.


 

It stands for work in process reported in the annual reports.  Here I add all the items excluding the raw materials and Supplied under inventories.  

the date. Future sales of 988m is not possible no matter how conservative aix management is. Unless, you mean by "future" a timeline of couple of years.  

@fel, thank you for sharing your thoughts on the valuation of the stock and analysis.

Recently, I have spent also some time thinking about this. In addition I would say that also the price-to-book ration 2023 of 3.33 appears moderate comparing to the last several years, expecting even lower value for 2024 at the current stock price.
All in all my gut feeling tells me that now is the moment to buy more Aix stocks or at least we are near the point where one can buy with enough safety margin over a horizon of 1 or 2 years.
As to the catalyst needed for the turnaround you mentioned, I believe that sometimes the stock price and valuation can be catalyst enough to do the job. At least, I observed this multiple times over the years.
Other than that I don't expect any stock price driver before Q2 reporting. Q1 report is just to close to the '23 report to have any stock moving news in terms of guidance change (but one never knows). I think even if with not so good Q2 report the price of the stock might keep the level and falling further.

Latest in the range of 20 EUR/share I consider a large order...but again, depending on the overall market condition.
If we can trust the management, and for now no reason not to do so, I think this dip can be viewed as a good mid-/long-term buying opportunity. Something tells me that latest around 20 EUR there should be a bottom. At that level the valuation gets quite attractive and some long term investors will not be able to resist.

Just sharing my thought and no intention of recommending any action to anybody.

@CWL, Baggo, fel, dlg. and all the other valuable contributors I cannot list:
Your valuable contributions are very much appreciated and I am very thankful about it!
Good luck to everyone!  

well there has to be a reason why other semi stocks rise but Aixtron goes downhill. it's a bit frustraiting.

 

https://www.ariva.de/news/...ron-unter-druck-exane-bnp-sieht-11205908

..."Der Grund sei, dass Hersteller von Elektronikchips von der Produktion von Wafern mit einem Durchmesser von 150 Millimeter auf solche mit 200 Millimeter übergingen, erklärt der Experte. Daher dürften sie anfangs vor allem auf Einzelwafer-Anlagen setzen, statt auf Anlagen für die Massenproduktion, also auf Batch-Anlagen, in denen mehrere Wafer gleichzeitig beschichtet werden."...

Ich hätte gedacht, dass genau deswegen Aix Kunden gewinnen sollte - eben wegen des Übergangs zu 200 mm wafers. Die Begründung kann ich nicht nachvollziehen. Ich glaube nicht, dass  man eine Produktion aufbauen will, indem man zuerst probeweise Einzelwafer Reaktoren nimmt und erst dann auf Batch umsteigt. Bin kein Fachmann aber mein gesunder Verstand geht nicht mit.  

Hi all,

a quick post as I have lots of other things to do. Happy to go into detail if required at a later stage.

Firstly, I strongly stick with my valuation thoughts that I have posted a couple of days ago. I think that Aixtron will most likely achieve the mid-point of the guided revenue and EBIT margin range, maybe even the upper end of the revenue guidance. That is important.

So what is going on with the stock?

There are a number of concerns at the moment: 1. A slowdown in SIC / EV demand; 2. Worries about market share losses in SIC in general (and even customer losses), fueled by some customers moving from 150mm to 200mm wafer size; 3. Uncertainty around MicroLED; 4. Risks around the Q1 results (due 25.04.).

On customer losses. I dont think that the rumours around potentially losing Wolfspeed / OnSemi are correct. But I cant negate those. But I dont think it makes a lot of sense.

On Micro LED. Yes, AMS Osram stopped the project, but Aixtron obviously showed a supplier excellence award by BOE.. so clearly some of Aixtron projects are making progress. I see little risk here, but these are single projects, no volume business.. so does not need to recurr in 2025 but only when customers have really broken through the challenges in the technology.

On Q1 results - and I think these are again the biggest risks right now. H1-24 faces tough comparables for order intake so that order intake in H1 may well decline somewhat, -5-10%. The market will and does not like that as it couples with the worries around EV/SIC etc. In other words: declining orders (even if from a high base) will provide no arguments against the worries by the market. This means it will take time for the worries to be negated.. the comparable base is low in Q3.. but that will only be reported in November. So some limbo / uncertainty until then... annoying!
BUT: The company only needs around € 280m orders in Q1 + Q2 to achieve the upper end of the revenue guidance for 2024. And I think that is doable. But not sure if the market takes this perspective anytime soon. At least it provides conviction for those who are invested (like me).
We know Q1 sales, probably 110m (100-120m guided range). EBIT is probably somewhere around 10m (at least that is what I hope, given the higher sales number). But in the end, EBIT is not key for me as Q1 is a seasonally small quarter.

So I am looking for clear signs of confidence by the management to provide indications on strong orders in the coming quarters and negate the market fears.

Against the fears, a potential upgrade in analyst revnue estimates (will not happen shor-term) coupled with a low valuation (which I described before) usually provides solid fuel for a share price. So this is my conviction. My consequence therefore is to add to my position everytime the stock dips by another -5%.. and trust in the CEOs words of solid high single digit growth again in 2025..

But watch out for Q1.. as we know from Aixtron, the stock can swing quite a bit around earnings days..

One last comment on valuation, e.g. where can be the trough. In 2017-22 the share price traded at a trough in the range of 2-3x book value. Based on the 2023 results book value is € 6.90, giving a range of € 14- 21.. Of course I think that Aixtron today is in much better shape than in that time frame. But supports my point of valuation above.

Regards,
Fel


 

nicht böse gemeint - aber ihr hockt hier schon in eurer Blase.  

Experten halt unter sich - Sentiment ausblenden,  wer anderer Meinung ist: ausblenden...