https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/12/27/a-200-gw-solar-year-in-2022/...
China’s PV demand is expected to reach as high as 70 GW next year. InfoLink projects that global module demand will range between 196 GW and 212 GW, up more than 20% on 164 GW this year.
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Against this backdrop, annual polysilicon production is expected to reach 700,000 MT, which is enough to supply approximately 255 GW of end-user demand.
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Southeast Asia aside, wafer, cell and module capacity expansions are concentrated in China. Because of the rapid shift to large-format products, global wafer, cell, and module capacity are each set to grow more than 140 GW this year. The cell segment saw the largest volume of additional capacity, reaching around 180 GW. Given new production lines are more competitive, capacity across the supply chain will continue to grow next year, with the wafer and cell segment each adding 100 GW of new capacity.
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The combined capacity of wafer, cell, and module will outgrow end user demand and surpass 350 GW by the end of the year.
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TOPCon vs. HJT
In terms of cell technology, PERC cells began to see profits decreasing to nil due to overcapacity. Meanwhile, manufacturers are expanding tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) and heterojunction (HJT) capacity, both n-type products. After China successfully localized production of the factory equipment to produce these cell technologies, the required investment per gigawatt has fallen from $35 million to $28 million for TOPCon, and from $62 million to $55 million for HJT this year, a significant reduction bringing them closer to the $22 million/GW required by PERC. It appears that TOPCon capacity additions will reach 20 GW to 30 GW next year, while HJT may see a 15 GW to 20 GW expansion.
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It seems that prices for TOPCon modules will be $0.02/W higher than PERC modules, which will already be an appealing price point for end users. Therefore, TOPCon will outgrow HJT in terms of capacity and production.