die meinen es wird ein stock swap geben, umsetzung 1:5 !
JPM will apply a minimum of 30 days restriction to all converted shares, because the buyout/settlement is going to make the stock drop at least 10% before it recovers and starts to come back up, once the news releases are over and the market can bare the responsibility of new JPM shareholders in the form of old WAMU shareholders. If no payout of Prefs, that is a good deal for JPM...IMHO
Yes.. JPM knows that is they don't announce a dividend by the time the 30 day restriction is up, the stock is going to head down a very dangerous road. It will take months for it to recover the losses it will sustain if the WAMU shareholders sell off in large volumes.
I don't think that is going to happen. Most of us do not want to incur the tax burden that this will bring and will probably hold a core position in JPM [even though we do not like them] so we can reap the dividends that will be forthcoming.
I would hold quite a bit of my position if I knew Divies were coming soon. It would be worth to me to do this and I figure 90-95% of all converted past WMI stockholders would do the same because divies are great. JPM should pay in the neighborhood of .55 PPS divies when they are reinstated. They just said in their 10Q that the WAMU deal is netting them .50-.70 PPS per Quarter..
I think the first divie would at least be .50 PPS.
Look at this way.
If you buy 100 common shares today at .10 that costs you $10
JPM buys WMI and converts 1:5 you end up with 20 shares
JPM pays .50 divie 3Q 2009 you end up with $10. Why would sell a stock that has a value of $600 if 1Q of divies pays for it. You could see 5 shares to gain 25% of value and hold the other 75% to enrich yourself in divies. I believe this is what will happen.
The one thing that could hurt this stock, if the professional WAMU investors started shorting their new JPM stocks and drove the price down as a revenge tactic. That scenario would not be good for any of us, the last thing you would want is for JPM to cancel the divie payment!
GO WMI WEIL and Quinn and TEXAS !!!
30 day restriction and a 1:5 ($7 pps) stock swap is very acceptable to me.
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An der Börse sind 2 mal 2 niemals 4, sondern 5 minus 1.
Man muß nur die Nerven haben, das minus 1 auszuhalten.