: Apple to raise iPhone production by 20% this year
not sure how important this sort of news is these days for Aixtron but I remember that Apple Supply Chain news used to be important, so I rather post it. There is also mention of miniLED screens for MacBook Pro - not sure if that is Aixtron relevant either.
Anything else to read into this news from Aixtron perspective? Anybody got a clue? @CWL, Baggo etc?
Bloomberg Article from Today:
By Debby Wu and Mark Gurman (Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc. has asked suppliers to build as many as 90 million next-generation iPhones this year, a sharp increase from its 2020 iPhone shipments, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The Cupertino, California-based tech giant has maintained a consistent level in recent years of roughly 75 million units for the initial run from a device?s launch through the end of the year. The upgraded forecast for 2021 would suggest the company anticipates its first iPhone launch since the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines will unlock additional demand. The next iPhones will be Apple?s second with 5G, a key enticement pushing users to upgrade. This year?s update will be more incremental than last year?s iPhone 12, emphasizing processor, camera and display improvements, the people said, asking not to be named as the plans are not public. Apple is planning updates to all of the current models, spanning the 5.4-inch and 6.1-inch regular versions and the 6.1-inch and 6.7-inch Pro models. The phones, codenamed D16, D17, D63, and D64, are all expected to be announced in September, earlier than last year?s October introduction partly thanks to the supply chain recovering. At least one of the new versions will have an LTPO (low- temperature polycrystalline oxide) display capable of alternating its refresh rate based on the content being shown. Apple has used this technology in the Apple Watch for several years, allowing the screen to be slower in certain situations -- such as the Always On mode -- to extend battery life. Oppo, OnePlus and Samsung Electronics Co. already have LTPO screens in their flagship phones. The new iPhones with LTPO displays will also use IGZO (indium gallium zinc oxide) technology for improved power efficiency and responsiveness. Read more: Apple Considers Foldable iPhone; Minor Changes Planned for 2021 While the design of the new Apple phones will remain largely unchanged, the company plans to reduce the size of the front-facing camera and face unlock sensor cutout, or notch, to better match its rivals. The company hopes to eventually remove the notch entirely in a future version of the iPhone and is likely to shrink its size further next year. An Apple spokesperson declined to comment. Apple?s camera upgrades will put the focus on more advanced video recording features such as improved optical zoom. An upgraded system-on-chip, built around the same six cores as the current A14 chip, will also be included. The company has tested an in-display fingerprint scanner for this year?s devices, however that feature will likely not appear on this generation.
What Bloomberg Intelligence Says
Apple?s building on strong momentum from the iPhone 12 release in 2020 and may continue to benefit from 5G smartphone upgrades and an overall improved smartphone market to follow that up with another strong release. Still, the growth expected in the initial production ramp is skewed by the fact that the iPhone 12 released later than normal in 2020, while the next iPhone is expected back to the normal late September release window. -- Matthew Kanterman, analyst While Apple has asked suppliers to build up to 90 million units, the actual number could be a few million units shy of that target, one of the people said. Huawei Technologies Co.?s sanction-stricken smartphone business is a major factor for Apple?s increased shipment orders, according to another person familiar with the strategy. The ongoing chip shortage that has undermined operations across several global industries is not expected to affect the production of upcoming iPhones, some of the people said. Apple is key chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.?s biggest customer and its outsize orders make the launch of a new iPhone an annual event that suppliers across Asia plan for months in advance. TSMC shares rose as much as 1.3% after the report of Apple?s upgraded output plans. Among other supply partners, fellow Taiwanese connector and power-pack maker Cheng Uei Precision Industry Co. climbed as much as 9% and lens maker Largan Precision Co. was up as much as 2.4%. Japanese electronic component makers Alps Alpine Co., up as much as 3.5%, and Renesas Electronics Corp., rising as much as 2.6%, were also positively affected. Apple profit estimates were raised at Citigroup. Chinese assembly partner Luxshare Precision Industry Co. is set to have a bigger role this year after it acquired iPhone assembly facilities from Wistron Corp. Read more: Apple Grooms First Mainland China IPhone Maker While U.S. Tensions Flare Assembler Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. will dominate orders for the 6.7-inch Pro Max model and split the 6.1-inch Pro with Luxshare and the 6.1-inch regular iPhone with Pegatron Corp. Pegatron is expected to make all the 5.4-inch units. Beyond the new iPhones, Apple is preparing several other products for later this year, including new MacBook Pro laptops with custom Apple chips, redesigned iPad mini and entry-tier iPad models and Apple Watches with updated displays. Apple plans to kick off production of the new MacBook Pro in the third quarter after facing some issues related to MiniLED screens that also challenged the launch of the latest iPad Pro. To resolve the MiniLED supply issue, Apple has recruited Luxshare to split orders for an essential MiniLED component for the new MacBook Pro with Taiwan Surface Mounting Technology Corp., which earlier dominated the orders for the component for iPad Pro.
GaAs IC foundries Win Semiconductors and Advanced Wireless Semiconductor Company (AWSC), and GaAs epi-wafer supplier Visual Photonics Epitaxy Company (VPEC) are all poised to log significant revenue gains in the second half of 2021, buoyed by demand for the upcoming iPhones and Wi-Fi 6E related applications, according to industry sources.
Apple is set to incorporate Wi-Fi 6E technology into its new iPhones for this year, and the technology is expected to become a standard feature of both iOS and Android smartphones in 2022, the sources said.
Many chipmakers including Qualcomm, Broadcom and MediaTeK are commercializing production of Wi-Fi 6E core chips, which have to be paired with RF front-end modules including power amplifiers (PA) rolled out by vendors including Qorvo and Skyworks, the sources noted. This will provide brisk business opportunities for Taiwan's 6-inch GaAs foundries Win Semi and AWSC and epi-wafer maker VPEC as they are crucial partners for processing 5G PAs and Wi-Fi 6/6E PAs for iPhones, Android smartphones, and other consumer electronics devices, added the sources.
As new iPhones will continue to adopt 3D face ID sensors for general models and ToF LiDAR scanners for Pro series, the three GaAS players will also see their third-quarter revenues further bolstered by VCSEL chips demand for the sensing solutions, the sources said.
Win Semi's June revenues rose 2.72% on year to NT$2.057 billion (US$73.36 million), and first-half 2021 sales edged up 0.67% on year to NT$12.143 billion.
AWSC saw its June revenues rise 4.5% sequentially and 39.41% on year to a six-year high of NT$396 million, with January-June sales jumping 33.95% on year to NT$2.216 billion.
VPEC's June revenues of NT$319 million represent sequential and on-year growths of 10.4% and 56.7%, respectively. Its revenues for the first six months of the year advanced 43.6% on year reaching NT$1.785 billion.
@CWL, the Digitimes article just underpins your deep understanding of the technology and supply chains. So great to have you as an active participant in this Forum - thank you!
A stupid question: Have you got any feel for capacity utilisation and when the supply chain needs to add more capacity, e.g. place new orders at Aixtron? Would they just be incremental or could this also result in larger orders?
By the way, I read this morning that Xiaomi is now #2 Smartphone maker globally. How far are they in terms of this technology? Any chance that they will be adopting this over the next year(s) which should lead to more capacity requirement along the supply chain?
Certainly several Chinese and Taiwanese firms have announced adding capacity and I have mentioned most of them here. However, I don't have the visibility on the intensities, timing and how they sit in the Aixtron's order book.
As far as the GaAs contents Xiaomi's phones are pretty much the same as Apple's. The supply chains are the same with Xiaomi having additional local ones. VCSELS (GaAs) will probably be picking up speed near term. Other main thrusts like GaN in fast charging and other applications (two posts before), SiC (EV), and with the micro LEDs coming in, there are several more years of 20%+ growth to come.
Given the strong demands on Aixtron's MOCVD, I want to see improving gross margin from Aixtron. I am not satisfied with it staying at ~40% which is not a indication of strong pricing power. I hope the Aixtron managers in particular the new CFO are doing their jobs. Better margins especially the gross margin can prove that.
"Alongside buying ASML's equipment, chipmakers invested in software to boost capacity of existing gear, Wennink said, helping drive up ASML's gross profit margin to 50.9%."
That makes me wonder. Aixtron is developing AI-based software for its new MOCVD to run more effectively with higher yields by controlling individual wafers during run using realtime data. I wonder if it can also be retrofitted into the existing MOCVD's. Felix in the last CC indicated higher service sales in 2022 and I wonder if they are related.
Dear Fel, please do give us the time for a coffee in the morning and to read the results a couple of times :-). Probably needless to say that today?s reported numbers are outstanding...a couple of thoughts:
1H21 revenues: EUR 117m FY guidance (I take the upper end): EUR 440m Implicit 2H revenues EUR 223m As a result, we should expect on average some EUR 110m revenues for the next two quarters, maybe distributed 90/130m in 3Q/4Q (which compares with 64/108m last year)?
Aixtron increased total order intake, but left the revenue guidance for 2021 unchanged; thus it?s probably fair to assume that we can be looking forward to a very good start into 2022 as well.
When Aixtron increased the full year guidance in early June, EUR/USD stood at 1.1215, now it?s at 1.185 and the order intake guidance has been increased. Consequently, the June guidance is way more conservative that it was in early June. Given this background, the EUR 2m EBIT "miss" in 2Q21 vs consensus is negligible.
Aixtron is now guiding to approx. EUR 15m per quarter in after sales revenues which compares with some EUR 11m per quarter last year. CWL, maybe a proof of your posting #1057? Looks like an incremental EUR 15-20m high-margin revenue stream p.a.
In particular, I like the following Aixtron statement: "Supply chain remains stable"
Hm, ich weiß nicht, wann ich mich das letzte mal so zum Volltrottel bei ariva gemacht habe, aber 440 Mio abzüglich 117 Mio in 1H ist natürlich nicht 223 Mio, sondern 323 Mio Euro, die im zweiten Halbjahr noch kommen werden. Damit vllt eine Verteilung von 130/190 Mio in 3Q/4Q (verglichen mit 64/108 Mio im letzten Jahr).
Ich könnte es auf lediglich einen einzigen Kaffee zum Zeitpunkt des Posts schieben und dass ich kein Excel genutzt und stattdessen mit dem Kleinhirn versucht habe, aber das macht's nicht besser. Da wird man so oft gemeldet und Postings gesperrt, aber wenn man's mal wirklich braucht, hilft einem keiner :-)
Frage in die Runde bzw. die Fachleute: Wenn dem so ist und QD OLED TV`s von Samsung kommen, auf welchen Maschinen würde dann produziert. Würde diese eine Anlage von Aixtron ausreichen oder hätte Aixtron die Chance mit weiteren Anlagen zum Zuge zu kommen, auch ohne weitere Qualifizierung?
mit sicherheit relevant für SIC und somit auch für Aixtron. Viele Grüße, Fel
WASHINGTON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - A group of 28 U.S. House Democrats on Monday asked congressional leaders to back $85 billion in funding for electric vehicle charging infrastructure, a big jump over funding proposed in a bill before Congress.
The current $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill under consideration has $7.5 billion in EV charging infrastructure funding, but Democrats plan to add additional funding in a separate measure that could spend up to $3.5 trillion.
The lawmakers, led by Representatives Debbie Dingell and Yvette Clarke, said in a letter that higher funding will "help add utility electrical capacity to enable robust charging, increasing the supply of renewable energy, and build grid resilience in the face of climate change."
fyi some transcript excerpts on SiC & 3D Sensing. Cree published quarterly results last night, shares down some 6% in after hours trading.
On SiC: ?We are excited to announce the acceleration of our investments to scale the manufacturing of our silicon carbide substrates, devices and modules to enable the acceleration of the electrification of the global transportation infrastructure. In fiscal year 2022, we plan to increase our investments to about $200 million in R&D and capital, to continue to lay the foundation on which to grow the business to the next level. Our silicon carbide business, which today is less than 5% of our revenue is targeted to become one of the largest businesses in our company inside 10-years. We believe that our investments and opportunities, combined with our ability to execute, will allow us to become well positioned in this large market with attractive growth dynamics. Accordingly, we are planning incremental R&D investments of about 2% to 3% of revenue for the next few years. We anticipate investing around $1 billion over the next decade as generation 3 semiconductors fabricated from wide-band gap materials including the silicon carbide grow to underpin a number of important industry transformations and are planning to establish a leadership position long-term.
In the meanwhile, we will be making a even larger investment than what we have been planning to get the silicon carbide substrate capacity in place for what we need and for also what the market needs as well, okay.?
On 3D sensing: ?3D Sensing posted the highest annual growth, more than doubling to just under 10% of sales, which allowed us to achieve our market penetration and share gain about one-year ahead of plan.
This journey will continue as we accelerate our innovation road map, including multi-junction VCSELs, photodiodes, metal lenses and driver electronics and delivering new module functionalities to wafer-scale co-packaging.
These modules will provide a compelling value proposition in multiple end markets, including in automotive, where driver and occupancy monitoring systems are increasingly recommended or acquired by U.S. and European transportation safety regulators.?
Cree on SiC: ?We went from moving dirt to installing equipment in the clean room of the world's largest silicon carbide fab in upstate New York which will begin processing 200 millimeter wafers in the first half of calendar 2022.?
?We are at the beginning of a multi-decade secular shift to silicon carbide and we now believe the demand curve is steeper for devices than we originally expected further bolstering our confidence in our long-term outlook. The investments we are making today will position us well to capitalize on the tremendous opportunities ahead and firmly establish our industry leadership position.?
?A key element to support the increased adoption of Silicon Carbide in the automotive sector and across several other industries is the expansion of manufacturing capacity. Our Mohawk Valley 200-millimeter fab is on track to begin device qualification production runs in the first half of calendar 2022. The facility is shaping up nicely and has shown very well during recent customer visits to the fab. On our campus here in Durham, we expanded our materials operations to a second building on our Durham campus, which is part of the previously announced plan to increase materials capacity by 30x.?
?I was actually very impressed to see how many people are talking about silicon carbide and how positive comments are. And I had in mind SD Micro reiterating that they want to increase the front end I mean front-end capacity by 10X between 2017 and 2024. I think the Infineon was not that specific but [indiscernible] talked about spending $1 billion in CapEx on Silicon Carbide over a decade. [indiscernible] is talking about growing capacity 5x between 2020 and 2025?.
?First off, the demand is definitely there and it -- and the appetite for silicon carbide just continues to grow. Neil and I were just in Europe a month ago or so for a couple of weeks visiting with OEMs and with Tier 1s and so forth and all of the indications we got from pretty much all the customers we saw is what they thought was going to be the demand. It's now higher than what they originally thought and faster than they originally thought across multiple different end equipments and certainly automotive being a pretty key part of that.?
?As we discussed in the prepared remarks, the slope of the demand curve for silicon carbide solutions particularly on devices has dramatically increased and is ahead of what we previously thought.We thought the inflection point, as we talk about Investor Day and since then was kind of 2023, kind of 2024 timeframe. And right now, we're seeing that pulling all the way into fiscal 2022.?
?So, I think what'll happen here and if you take a step back, in Durham alone, we put in over a 100 tools in the last year to support higher demand. And we just need to get that, improve that factory output and kind of support that kind of demand curve. And as Greg mentioned earlier, we've got a new leadership to get better focus on that and really improve the North Carolina footprint.?