die GRÜNDE für die Zinssenkung :
Wednesday January 31, 2:11 pm Eastern Time
Expansion Slowest in Nearly Six Years
By Glenn Somerville
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew at the
weakest rate in 5-1/2 years in the final quarter of 2000 as
consumers cut spending on cars and computers, and goods
piled up on store shelves, the Commerce Department said on
Wednesday.
Gross domestic product, which measures the value of all goods and services produced within
U.S. borders, advanced at a lackluster 1.4 percent annual rate during the October-December
fourth quarter, down from 2.2 percent in the third quarter.
It was the slowest pace of GDP increase for any three-month period since a 0.8 percent rise in
the second quarter of 1995 when the economy was coping with overstocked inventories.
The GDP figure failed to match forecasts for a 1.9 percent gain but heightened anticipation that
cheaper credit and lower taxes were on the way to try to keep a slowdown from becoming a
skid into recession.
``The downward economic momentum is gathering steam, making a stronger case for additional
cuts in interest rates and a retroactive tax cut,'' said economist Sung Won Sohn of Wells Fargo
Bank in Minneapolis.
The report came as U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers gathered for the final part of a two-day
meeting expected to result in a half-percentage-point cut in U.S. interest rates on Wednesday
afternoon.
GROWTH NEARLY STALLED NOW
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who engineered a shock half percentage point cut in rates on
Jan. 3, told Congress last week the economy had slowed dramatically and now was operating at
''close to zero'' growth.
The U.S. economy lost steam abruptly in the second half of 2000, after a robust first six months
that helped give the country its strongest full-year growth in 16 years. GDP for all of 2000
increased by 5 percent, ahead of a 4.2 percent gain in 1999, for the biggest annual rise since 7.3
percent in 1984.
But the full-year performance was overshadowed by the steady loss of economic stamina as
2000 drew to a close.
The GDP report showed that growth in consumer spending -- the single most vital component of
GDP since it drives output -- tapered to a 2.9 percent rate in the fourth quarter last year from 4.5
percent in the third quarter.
Softer spending, during the November-to-Christmas holiday shopping season, underlined
consumers' cautious mood, which analysts blamed partly on a weaker stock market that made
people feel poorer.
Still, analysts said the report was not entirely bleak, nor did it imply the country was stumbling
into a recession that would end a record 10 years of expansion.
MANUFACTURING IN A SLUMP
``The GDP numbers show a two-tier economy, with the manufacturing sector in recession and
industrial production still declining, but the rest of the economy holding up reasonably well,
said Jerry Jasinowski, president of the National Association of Manufacturers.
A separate Commerce Department report showed sales new homes jumped by 13.4 percent
during December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 975,000 -- the strongest monthly
increase in eight years.
Cheaper mortgage rates kept a floor under building and sales, a key development since
purchases of new homes generally mean more spending to furnish and equip them.
Sohn said the economy appeared to be engaged ``in a high-wire act between a soft landing and a
recession,'' but stressed it should not be assumed a recession lay ahead.
Greenspan told Congress last week that the United States appeared to be going through a sharp
inventory correction in which business cut production to allow a chance to sell-off overstocked
goods.
While most Fed officials have said they believe a recession is unlikely, U.S. central bank
policymakers clearly have grown concerned as consumer confidence wanes and a manufacturing
slump deepens.
Businesses added to inventories at a $67.1 billion rate during the fourth quarter, down from
$72.5 billion in the third quarter and $78.6 billion in the second quarter. The steady
scaling-back of additions to inventory has drained a potent source of economic growth since it
means factories produced less in response to a slower shopping pace.
The process of getting inventories into line with sales has continued in 2001, leading to a
drumbeat of layoff announcements from companies ranging from automakers to Internet retailers.
Commerce said production of new cares and trucks slumped by 24.4 percent in the fourth
quarter after a 16.9 percent reduction in the third quarter. Computer sales barely edged up 2.5
percent after shooting up by 40.6 percent in the third quarter.
Schaut euch mal die Produktionszahlen für Autos + LKWs an - dann könnt ihr euch ausrechnen wie's in ein paar Monaten bei den Kfz-Händlern, -werkstätten etc. aussieht.
Ich rechnen eigentlich nicht einem Ausbruch aus einem breiten Seitwärtstrend.
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