"What happens with Enriched #Uranium for US Utilities if the war ends and most sanctions are summarily lifted?
In line with Cameco comments on the topic and general consensus in the sector - very little is likely to materially change. That said, I won’t even guess what investor sentiment would do or how under-informed speculators will behave.
So let’s go over why very little would be likely to materially change:
1. The Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Law is not a “Sanction” it cannot be lifted by Executive Order — it would require Congressional repeal of a law that passed with unanimous bipartisan support. A law designed to force the restart of a domestic nuclear fuel supply chain. Passage of that law was required to unlock $3.4B in funds for building and expanding domestic production of LEU and HALEU. It is extremely unlikely that this law is repealed because ending dependence on Russian conversion & enrichment is a national security priority, and a national energy priority (reinforced under Wright’s DoE.) Also, the funds have already been awarded and in the case of both Orano & Urenco - have been met with billions in additional private spending commitments (along w lesser amounts by other vendors eg $60m from Centrus.) And, a reminder, this law prohibits all Russian Uranium Imports as of 12-31-27 even if the fuel buyer is holding one of the five Waivers issued by DoE.
2. Russia’s retaliatory “Temporary Export Ban” is Russian “policy” or counter-sanction (not law) that is set to last through 12-31-25 (and then be subject to renewal) but it could potentially be lifted (or export licenses issued) however, only Waiver holders would be eligible to order material. Now, this is where timing matters: There are only 22 months left until the Import Ban fully kicks-in. How many more months go by until peace is negotiated — if it is at all? The point is that even if Russia is inclined to encourage orders (post war) the window for turnaround shipments is ticking toward closure.
3. In my opinion, even Waiver holders are no longer holding out hope of receiving Russian EUP in the wake of multiple sailings from St. Petersburg that did not contain material. As such, alternative vendors are being contracted - as evidenced by soaring prices for Conversion and Enrichment Services since Nov ‘24.
In the big picture, the requirement for Uranium U3O8, (the feedstock for Enrichment Services) is a worldwide calculation — no matter who performs the Services. As such, the structural supply deficit (inadequate to fuel existing reactors - never mind new demand) hasn’t changed, it was only been temporarily delayed by a year of uncertainties around the likely permanent disruption of a 30-year method of procurement."
https://x.com/leggett_john/status/1892640846811394303
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