Victoria Oil (200% Potential)

Also hier seit langer Zeit mal wieder ein Öl-Thread von mir.

Inzwischen sind viele der kleineren Ölunternehmen aufgrund des gefallenen Ölpreises wieder auf den Boden der Tatsachen zurückgekommen. Allerdings sind die Kursverluste bei einigen Unternehmen nicht gerechtfertigt.

Das beste Beispiel für ein solches Unternehmen ist Victoria Oil. Dieses Unternehmen hat in den letzten 6 Monaten 65% seines Marktwertes verloren, jedoch ist die fundamentale Entwicklung sehr gut verlaufen.

Victoria Oil ist in Kazakhstan und im "West Medvezhye Projekt" in Russland tätig. Bisher stockte das russische Projekt, aber laut einem Bericht von "DeGolyer and MacNaughton" sind enorme Fortschritte zu verzeichnen.

Interessant ist, dass der Wert der Aktie derzeit komplett durch die Felder in Kazakhstan gedeckt ist und das es sehr gute "West Medvezhye Projekt" gewissermaßen mit umsonst dazu gibt.

So schätzen die Analysten von Renaissance Capital den fairen Wert der Aktien auf 2,50£. Dies entspricht einem Steigerungspotential von 230%. Dazu sei gesagt, das Renaissance Capital wie immer sehr vorsichtig schätzt.

Vor allem da Ölwerte momentan nicht sehr sexy sind, bietet sich hier wohl eine Einstiegschance, denn langfristig ist das Ölangebot viel zu gering, was wieder zu steigenden Preisen führen wird.

Meine Prognose: Auf Sicht von 2 Jahren sind da relativ sichere 200%-300% drin. Ich habe mich jedenfalls mal wieder im Ölsektor eingedeckt.


der Tolle


p.s. auch die anderen Ölwerte (Arawak, Dragon, BMB Munai & Burren sind zur Zeit wieder interressant

 

und was willst Du uns nun damit sagen ? Doch nicht etwa, dass ein Invest in diesen Wert völliger Blödsinn ist, oder ?

Bitte alle Meinungen und Ansichten möglichst detailliert begründen. Das macht Sinn. Der bloße Verweis auf den Chart der vergangenen Jahre ist nicht zielführend und bringt niemanden weiter. Bevor man sich ein Urteil erlauben kann, sollte man sich ausführlichst mit dem Unternehmen beschäftigen. Falls noch nicht geschehen, bitte nachholen. Vielleicht fallen dann einige Sachverhalte ins Auge, die dafür sprechen, hier zu investieren.

 

 

Fox-Davies Capital in their a.m. Newsflash reiterate this morning’s RNS, and add a Comment in which they:-

(i) see the doubling of the 2P reserves base as “transformational”
(ii) increase their risked NAV to 14p
(iii) maintain their “Buy” rating.

Valuta



Victoria Oil & Gas (BUY, £0.09) (VOG, 3.11p, ▲ (0.32%)) published an update on its reserves and resources potential at Logbaba, Cameroon. The update was completed by Blackwatch Petroleum Services Limited, which act as consultants to the Company. The Proven and Probable (2P) gas reserves in the Logbaba field are contained in Campanian and Santonian age sands of the Logbaba Formation. New structure maps were constructed based on correlations of the Logbaba sands incorporating new and old well data as well as existing seismic data. Remotely sensed imagery was acquired and analysed to provide a structural framework for Logbaba. Blackwatch has completed the Logbaba reserves review, integrating the recent well logs and well test data from the successfully drilled and completed new wells La-105 & 106 and the original four wells drilled in the 1950s. All six of the wells drilled in the Logbaba block to date have encountered significant gas intervals and all five wells that were tested flowed gas to surface. To date, only the Logbaba Formation gas sands have been tested. The deepest well on the block, La-104, encountered good gas shows, not only in the Logbaba Formation but also in the deeper Turonian age gas-bearing sands where the well reached a target depth of 13,688ft. The 1P reserves increased from 10 to 49Bcf, 2P from 104 to 212Bcf and 3P from 202 to 350Bcf, while prospective resources in the entire Block are estimated at in excess of 1TCF. The Company continues to sign gas supply contracts with industrial end users in Douala, including some multinational firms. Due to the shortage of domestic gas supply and the high costs of alternative energy, VOG aims to benefit from its sig nificant first mover advantage and capitalise on Cameroon's strategic location and growing energy demands. The Company offers a considerably cheaper source of fuel and reliability of supply to industrial users, power suppliers and liquid fuel users. Approximately 80% of the initial customer base lies within a 10km radius of the deposit and the Company forecasts that the market could grow to over 100MMscf/d within the next five years. The Company is also actively working with the Cameroon National Oil Company, and the Ministry of Industry, Mines and Technology on permitting and expects the Exploitation Authorisation and other key permits to be issued in the near future. The majority of pipeline material has now been delivered to Cameroon and the Company is ready to start installation as permits are granted.

Comment: The doubling of the 2P reserves base is in itself transformational news for the Company; it outlines the size of the field and the prospectivity of the Block. The passive seismic anomaly to the north of Logbaba is estimated to be about 1TCF and is the next drilling target. Our risked NAV increases to 14p as a result of the update and we maintain our Buy rating.

Full text (VOG part is 500 words):-
')" href="http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/fox-davies-capital/3680/max-petroleum-victoria-oil-gas-dragon-oil-gma-resources-and-others-feature-in-fox-davies-newsflash-3680.html" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/fox-davies-capital/3680/max-petroleum-victoria-oil-gas-dragon-oil-gma-resources-and-others-feature-in-fox-davies-newsflash-3680.html


 

 

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFSGE69J09K20101020

 

Shares in Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG) marched ahead on Wednesday, after the latest reserves report at its Logbaba project in Cameroon revealed a five-fold increase.

Victoria's shares - which have shed around 16% since April when it said first sales from Logbaba were likely to be delayed - rose almost 16% to 3.55p.

Proved reserves at the project increased to 49 billion cubic feet, while proved plus probably reserves more than doubled to 212 Bcf.

The report, carried out by consultants Blackwatch Petroleum Services, found prospective resources across the entire Logbaba block to total in excess of one trillion cubic feet, Victoria Oil said in a statement.

The AIM-listed company, which has assets in Africa, Kazakhstan and Russia, said the proven and probable gas reserves in the Logbaba field are contained in the Campanian and Santonian age sands of the Logbaba formation.

The reserves report integrated well logs and data taken from the recently completed wells La-105 and 106, as well as the original four wells drilled in the 1950s by Serepca.

All six of the wells drilled in the Logbaba block - the first commercial onshore gas field in the central African country - have encountered what the company hailed "significant gas intervals" and all five wells that were tested flowed gas to surface.

To date, only the Logbaba Formation gas sands have been tested.

Victoria Oil, which holds a 60% working interest in the project, said it continues to sign gas supply contracts with industrial end users in Douala.

Separately, the company is also working with the Cameroon National Oil Company and the Ministry of Industry, Mines and Technology on permitting and expects the Exploitation Authorisation and other key permits to be issued in the near future.

David Hart, analyst at Westhouse Securities, commented: "There is no question that as a shale oil play, Jolly Ranch presents challenges in the early development stages that conventional plays do not.

"However, with exceptional estimates of oil in place, the patience this requires at the start can lead to substantial rewards, as understanding of completion techniques is optimised. Recent transactions involving other shale plays in North America, albeit predominantly gas, have shown the potential value that can be created once these techniques are established.

"Nighthawk's decision to pursue well recompletions and testing, rather than additional new drilling, will help achieve both better understanding of the play and improve cash flow, which we believe demonstrates the management's focus on value-creating opportunities.

"We maintain our 'buy' recommendation on the shares as well as our target price of 88p."

')" href="http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?section=Markets&article_id=10120644" target="_new" rel="nofollow">http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?section=Markets&article_id=10120644

 

Victoria Oil &. 0,049 € +32,43% Perf. seit Threadbeginn: -95,38%

AFREN PLC . 0,219 € +46,97% Perf. seit Threadbeginn: -90.48% (am 17. März 09 - heute 1,50 EUR)

Do schau mer mol, wie de Vicky sich in 18 Monaten rausmacht ...

(ganz prächtig - kein Zweifel ;))

Bist Du noch da ? Das war es, was ich meinte. Und es ist erst der Anfang !

 

Meinungen aus dem UK-Forum (10-11-2010):

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A very decent rise today on decent volume, however I don’t know why as I know of no fundamental change!? I spoke to Vog HQ yesterday (Tuesday) and my understanding of the licence issue is that nothing has changed ie, we’re still waiting. I also got the impression that the PL is actually holding up the permits, so we may not be able to lay any pipes until we get the PL. My impression was that everything the company can do to get going, once the PL is issued, has been done but we are still being held up by red tape and have been for quite a while.

Anyway, judging by the strength of the SP lately it looks like there is a strong demand for Vog, some of that is short term waiting for the licence rise and that’s understandable, however imo the more fwd looking will see Vog have much more to offer than Logbaba alone. Once gas is flowing in Douala, the good news should continue:

Increased company sign ups
Increased gas sales
Increased profit
Possibly regaining Kem
Drilling of the anomaly
Drilling in Russia
Longer-term Falcon seismic reports
Longer-term possibly Liberian seismic reports

Hold or Buy!

Temu

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This statement from the boss in 9th November RNS leaves plenty of room for a great deal of good news in the coming weeks in 2010, any one of which will drive the price upwards. VOG is entering a new and exciting period after a long drawn out stagnation. The share price is regenerated as of now. Huge amount of interests from here on in, imho. Check out the boss's words below:-

"In addition, Victoria has also applied for five blocks in Liberia's third offshore bid round and we hope to know the results of this bid by the end of the year.

Victoria's strategy remains to grow organically and via acquisition into a profitable company. The Company now has total recoverable Proved and Probable reserves of 35.6 MMboe and significant potential, with prospective resources of over 1.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent. We will endeavour to maximise shareholder value through further development and appraisal work on our existing assets. Furthermore, the Company will continue to appraise new opportunities and commercial transactions, where our technical expertise and experience gained to date, particularly in Africa, can be used to an advantage."

Good luck to all. We're going to do very well with VOG, the hot stock again for 2011.

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Link direkt zum UK-Forum (Interactive Investor):

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/...L&display=discussion&it=le

Dort wird ordentlich diskutiert !!!

 

 

 

Victoria are a well managed, well financed, well placed exploration company currently trading at 5p. This is in my opinion going in to double figures on Logbaba news. A 25p target in the short term looks likely here.

http://brokermandaniel.com/

Just scroll down the blog to find VOG.

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http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/...L&display=discussion&it=le

From poster on ADVFN, who points out that revenue will start at $1 million a week in Cameroon going to $10 million a week over the following 5 years.
That, of course, is just on the current two wells. Clearly there will be more wells drilling in Cameroom, so we can multiply revenue accordingly.

1ST SEPTEMBER 2010 RNS made things much much clearer about profitability of this resource we have in Cameroon:

VOG has now completed two successful onshore wells in Cameroon, making the company the only onshore gas producer in the country. The first well flowed at up to 56 million cubic feet of gas plus 1,000 barrels of condensate per day(equivalent to 10,000 barrels of oil per day) the second well flowed at up to 22 million cubic feet of gas plus unmeasured amounts of condensate per day (equivalent to approximately 3,600 barrels of oil per day).

There remain a number of additional horizons in both wells that have yet to be tested. The Company has entered into several gas supply contracts with leading industrial end users in Douala, including some multinational firms. Due to the shortage of domestic gas supply and the high costs of alternative energy, the Company has achieved favourable prices of US$16 per mmbtu fixed for the next 5 years on initial contracts, compared to a spot price in the United States of approximately US$4 per mmbtu. All initial end users are located within 15km of the well heads, resulting in minimal capital expenditure required now to monetise the gas. The pipeline route has been planned to have minimum impact on dwellings and citizens and is being permitted. The pipeline is scheduled for completion by year end.

The prospective gas and condensate resources and reserves numbers attributed to the Company were established in 2008, before the Company had drilled either well. The original reserve report which gave 108 billion cubic feet of 2P reserves evaluated less than 10% of the license area. The successful completion of wells La-105 and La-106 should allow for a material increase in the Company's reserves and resources both on the immediate areas around the well and within the overall license area. The Company expects to be selling approximately 10 million cubic feet of gas per day by mid 2011. This is anticipated to generate gross gas sales revenue of more than US$1 million per week, with the Company confident that it can build sales to over 100 million cubic feet a day within 5 years.
 

 

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/...L&display=discussion&it=le

 

The Company continues to sign gas supply contracts with industrial end users in Douala, including some multinational firms. Due to the shortage of domestic gas supply and the high costs of alternative energy, VOG aims to benefit from its significant first mover advantage and capitalise on Cameroon's strategic location and growing energy demands. The Company offers a considerably cheaper source of fuel and reliability of supply to industrial users, power suppliers and liquid fuel users. Approximately 80% of the initial customer base lies within a 10km radius of the deposit and the Company forecasts that the market could grow to over 100MMscf/d within the next five years.

The Company is also actively working with the Cameroon National Oil Company ("SNH"), and the Ministry of Industry, Mines and Technology on permitting and expects the Exploitation Authorisation and other key permits to be issued in the near future. The majority of pipeline material has now been delivered to Cameroon and the Company is ready to start installation as permits are granted.

---------------------------------------
Also:-

REVALUATION OF RESERVES IN CAMEROON UPWARDS:-

Logbaba Proved Reserves increase almost five fold to 49 Bcf

Proved plus Probable (2P) reserves more than double to 212 Bcf

Prospective Resources evaluated to be in excess of 1 Tcf

--------------------------------------------------

What a fantastic buying opportunity before the next hike upwards on the back of a series of good news announcements for Cameroon Gas Action and gearing up on the development of other assets globally.
 

 

http://news.cameroon-today.com/">http://news.cameroon-today.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_new">http://news.cameroon-today.com/

 

 

Was willst Du uns mitteilen Embudu?  

Einfach mal Lesen, drüber nachdenken, Meinung bilden und Handeln. Die Frage war nicht ernst gemeint, oder ?

 

Morning All, I was fortunate to be at VOG HQ yesterday for the PI meet, and it was a very interesting and useful insight into the projects that VOG currently have underway. Present from VOG were Kevin Foo, Jonathan Scott-Barrett, Austen Titford, Andrew Wright, and Sam Metcalfe who all gave responses on their various fields of expertise, and kindly spared us over three hours with regard to the various questions that were posed to them by investors on this and the III board (list of q's is on the III board from last week). Temu is going to give a detailled breakdown of responses on the III board on Monday I believe, however in the meantime, these are the main points that for me really stood out.

-The Exploitation License (Mining License) is currently awaiting a Letter of Support from the SNH who provide this, then the Minister of Mining will send to the President for approval in the form of a Presidential Decree. Customers who are already signed up with contracts have sent letters of support on their Company Letterhead paper in support of VOG.

- There are 12 signed customers so far, all on $16/mcf fixed for 5 years and on 20 year exclusive contracts with VOG.

- There seemed a real buzz in the office from all the VOG team with regard to how much gas was actually going to be sold. The phrase "we can sell more than we can produce" was used - and KF's forecast of 100Mmcf / d was explained as follows; each 7MW generator will consume 4Mmcf/d of gas, and should a single 250MW power station (pretty small unit) that would be sufficient to consume 50Mmcf/d of gas. Each customer is on an unlimited consumption agreement so can use as much as they can consume, and are just on a meter.

- Payment for gas is due 10 days after each month end.

- There are plans to twin both LA-101 and LA-104, and perhaps a multi-well campaign for economy of scale when contracting a drilling rig (i.e. each subsequent well is cheaper to drill).

- The capital expenditure at Logbaba was actually $70m, up from $49m. This is all tax-deductible.

- Kemerkol; a small team remains in Kazakhstan, to ensure that the site is not developed / sold whilst the legal proceedings go on. Something is expected to happen by Q1 2011 (Jan - March). Should the field be returned, it would look like VOG would sell the asset, and gain some cash for the balance sheet (net worth currently £0 on P&L)

- Westmed; SGI are currently intergrating the passive seismic into previous surveys and the results of this are expected within a month. The current 2d seismic that VOG currently had looked quite poor and so further work is being done to try and improve the resolution of these images.

- Requirement is to drill 2 wells by 2012, possibility of drilling in Winter of 2012-13. The opportunity for a farmout exists, however VOG are looking to greatly improve the data they have so that the true potential of the field is known.

Will write some notes on Falcon / Liberia in a second... (contd...)

- Falcon, Passive seismic is looking to be mobilised as soon as possible, but this may not be before the year end, as its currently rainy season there and there is an issue of farmers and their crops.

- Magnetic and gravity surveys are to be done

- Absolute maximum cost of the Falcon option is $12.5m, however an independant expert will value the field and it did not sound like that amount would be the valuation (cost expectations lower)

- Liberia is an offshore tender, and there was some competition from the likes of Sasol (South African major) etc. However, KF met with the President of Liberia in Monrovia, who apparently is of the view that some Oil Juniors do develop offshore would "keep the majors honest". Chevron paid $200m for a prime offshore block, however there are benefits to awarding to Juniors namely that they cannot afford to simply let their assets stand, and they are far more likely do develop them as soon as possible. An announcement re. the block is expected within 6 months.

General items

- VOG are in the process of moving from AIB to HSBC. The Seda facility (c. £3m remaining) is with AIB.

- VOG do not take an FX standpoint when raising capital, i.e. Sterling will be held immediately as Dollars so that the costs are known to be met.

- The Exploration license at Logbaba has been extended (lapsed in Aug I believe) just to ensure that could not be a holdup in getting the Mining License - apparently they reqested this and the Minister of Mining signed it on the spot to show good faith

- Plan is that Expro will initially operate the gas plant at Logbaba, and this will shift to being operated by local labour within about 9 months.

- VOG actually have a "customer pack" that facilitates all potential customers to get boilers with dual fuel, contractor to supply them to the VOG pipeline, fitting of boiler etc etc so that they make a fuel saving of approximately 30%, which equates to roughly 10% more profit (gross) for every customer who signs up on their annual P&L as fuel is about 30% of total industrial costs in Douala.

Think that's about all the major points, but fair to say that I'm still really excited about the future of VOG, and really was surprised about the potential of Logbaba. I was really thinking that WestMed was going to be the "company maker" for VOG, however it really looks good for Logbaba too. I was very impressed with the whole team VOG had present, they all seemed really focused on what they needed to do, and very knowledgable as to how to go about doing it. Hope this is useful for some people. GL

 

 

 

Bei meinem vorherigen Posting handelt es sich um die Zusammenfassung eines Teilnehmers. Private Investoren / Anleger haben sich mit Vertretern von VOG (Namen siehe Zusammenfassung) getroffen, zwecks Informationsgewinnung. Diverse Fragen wurden wohl gestellt und entsprechend beantwortet. Weitere Zusammenfassungen der Mitinvestierten werden sicherlich im Laufe der nächsten Tage folgen. Sehr nett von den englischen Kollegen, sich so eine Mühe zu machen und uns an den Neuigkeiten teilhaben zu lassen. Viel Erfolg allen noch bei dieser Investition.

 

A very good write up from PPVN and one that i am not going to expand on too much as he has said pretty much what happened.

My thoughts are;-

KF is still hopeful of the licence before Xmas, but realised that should it not appear by then, it could realistically be well into the next month before we get it. He has discussed the brown envelope idea on previous occassions and has pointed out that once started, whaere does it stop.? It is prefferable to try and side step an obstacle than buy it out.

The physical laying of the pipe line is not the time consuming part. It is all the testing for integrirty which does that.They also gave instances of other companies issues with security, and they are fairly happy that if it cant be seen then the chances are it will be left alone. the only worries concerned the isolation valves and their protection. they could phsically start at the moment, but KF would rather everything is stamped and in place before they do. This is in case of any last minute changes to route etc that they could suddenly spring.

They are going to push Liberia and have a very good contact over there who got them a meet with the president within hours of them landing. The blocks 1 - 5 are right up there with the big boys. Nothing has been decided and it could even involve a divi up between them all....this if it come off would be VERY exciting.

PPVN mentioned the 50mmbd power plant. It was my understanding that they were looking at 2 of them, but i may have misheard. This alone would give the 100mmbd that KF forecast.

It is hoped that in the very near future that LB will be the company banker and fund all the future running and exploration for the company. KF was then totally frank when he said that it is not his intention to have anymore cash calls and has every hope that LB will perform as anticipated.

They showed us a seismic colour spectrum sheet of the anomaly just to the NW of 105 / 106.I have asked Sam Metcalf to email it to me and i will post it with comments when i get it

KF though the most likely scenario was a farm out for West Med, but nothing concrete yet.

for the Techies.

a steel completion string has been run, though they anticipate using Chrome in the future. Steel was used initially for cost. The completion string is 4 1/2 "

They anticipate doing a caliper survey down hole every 6 months to check for corrossion etc.

They have set a down hole safety valve on both wells

Thats about it on first thoughts. Otherwys from iii will give a financial report later as that is his domain.

Hope that this helps some and i am sure Fozzy and Ducati will give their thoughts once the hangover has gone.

Next door's Slug and Lettuce loved us until Ducati used one of their Xmas promotion boards to demonstrate a roof pitch and promptly broke it. The Manageress was NOT amused....We Were.:-)

Topshare is a mean snowball dodger, someone nicked Temu's drink so he complained to the manageress who AGAIN decided she didn't love us any more, and Fozzy would give me a run for my money in a drinking comp. A great day out
 

 

Ok, back home early so the time to put my person view of the meeting as best I can remember and/or understood it. I'm glad to say PPVN of the LSE (youngest PI present and seemed a genuine and switched on guy) has already taken the time and written a very accurate assessment of what was said. I will try not to repeat what he has said as I agree with 99% of it, but apologies if I do.

There were 8 PI there with various investment exposure, from 50k into the millions. I, and I guess the others went for several reasons :

to get to know the BoD of the company we are invested in
to see if we could gain a better understanding of Vogs current position and potential
to report back to the BBs for the benefit of all invested, or potential investors
(Meldrew probably just went for the mince pies)



KF, JSB and Austen I've spoken with before. Andrew Wright is the project manager in Logbaba and dealt this those issues in a very enthusiastic way, Sam Metcalf dealt with all the drilling, seismic etc questions. My impression was that all were genuine and open with whatever question or subject were raised.

Right from the start Topshare got stuck in, even before JSB had got thru question one! This was a surprise to me as his forum posts are normally light-hearted, however his questions were valid and he calmed down (a bit) soon afterwards

I've decided to split what I took form the meeting into Bad, Good and General categories as I see it.


Bad,

SHN will buy in to their 5% which will slightly dilute RDL and RSM share, it should bring in $3.5m being 5% of $70m. I believe I heard that the 5% option is quite a small amount for SNH and that reflected the risky nature of the project and that nothing had happened to move this project forward for years.

We asked about the rig deal and CH 7% royalty is for the whole of the Logbaba project and not just for the two wells drilled. Vog said the deal included $4million cash plus onsite equipment which remains Vogs property, 300days consultancy and there were no mob / de mob costs plus the daily rig rate was reduced compared to the alternative. The alternative they had was a bigger 2000kw rig but costs including manpower would have been much higher plus they would have had to pay mob / demob costs. At the time and considering the risk of the project, Vogs financial situation and the time scales they had to work to, Vog regarded the CH deal as the best offer. I believe everyone at the meeting agreed with the explanation given.

Licence is stalled at the SNH stage. Vog maintain they have good overall relations with SNH but some internal posturing is going on. They said nobody has asked for a bribe and they have no intention of working that way as, to quote KF 'once you start where do you stop!?' However this is an uncertain situation hence the licence could be imminent, or any day or week or Q1.

Locals authority / land owners are asking for $4million in compensation around the drill site for their corrugated and mud huts etc…lol


Good,

My impression of KF and the BoD was that they are is 100% committed to Vog and its success, and Vog are trying to do it the right way. KF will have made a small fortune at his days with Celtic but he is definitely risking his own money to ensure Vog is also a success. His shareholding speaks for itself and he has to this date never sold a Vog share.

12 customers signed up with another possible 2 or 3 in Dec.

Electrical gen could easily outshine thermal sales. He used an example of a company that consumes 7mw/day. A gas generator, again if I heard right, will need 1.6mmcf/d to power that. He ventured approx 50mmcf of the 100mmcf demand could be in supplying thermal and electrical demand. I think electrical demand will eventually be priced at $3 or $4 less than thermal but that is still a huge income stream despite all the royalties and takes

Confirmed KF had high level contact with Chinese and Korean firms re their invest

 

12 customers signed up with another possible 2 or 3 in Dec.

Electrical gen could easily outshine thermal sales. He used an example of a company that consumes 7mw/day. A gas generator, again if I heard right, will need 1.6mmcf/d to power that. He ventured approx 50mmcf of the 100mmcf demand could be in supplying thermal and electrical demand. I think electrical demand will eventually be priced at $3 or $4 less than thermal but that is still a huge income stream despite all the royalties and takes

Confirmed KF had high level contact with Chinese and Korean firms re their investing in a 250MW power plants and being supplied with Vog gas. This may impact on the last sentence though I think this is nowhere near enough to keep the lights shining in Douala and by the time its been approved and built consumption will have again increased. The $gas price will not be as high but a 250mw power plant could consume 50mmcf/d. ( The more knowledgeable, feel free to correct me if this is wrong)

As mentioned, Logbaba Capex is $70million, so Vog will be receiving RSMs 40% share for a while in addition to capex being tax deductable. Otherwys may be able to shed more light on the financials.


General

Logbaba.
Talk of an automatic PL after a set amount of time from the application is not correct.

Manpower required to work two shifts on the processing plant, security ect. Pipeline to be walked daily.

Vog aren't expecting the anomaly to be oil, its as they have said in their RNS most likely gas, but until the drill bit goes down nobody knows if its anything. SM mentioned that there were some interesting results from the seismic report other than the anomaly, but that much more data needed to be gathered before any conclusions could be made so don’t get any hopes up of yet more gas or an oil find though neither have been ruled out.

Phase two of the pipeline costs approx $4 or $5million (can't remember exactly) and will take up to 12 weeks to install after phase1 complete. Pay-back time is months not years. Permits for this expected at the same time as phase one.

There probably will be a multi-well campaign next in Logbaba and they will most likely twin drill the other two Elf wells plus the anomaly.

All long lead items ordered and waiting to be shipped/used once the licence is granted


Other companies can use Vogs gas network if there's spare capacity and they will have to pay Vog for the service. Vog don’t anticipate this as a likely to happen and they think Bowleven may be more focused off-shore after recent events. Also as Vog are tying up 20 year deals there won’t be much left of the market to target by the time an alternative might be available.



Kemerkol.
It looks like the Kemerkol decision date is being put back and could be up to 6 months before we have a final out-come, though I think this is to give plenty of wriggle room as I got the impression it will be much sooner. The out-come is uncertain but as has been discussed previously there is hope for a successful resolution. Also KF said he'd never lost so far, so we will just have to see and the where about of her assets might become irrelevant. It was of interest that Noor Petroleum had been in touch with the Khazak government and were not happy, also it seems much western and middle eastern investment in the country has stalled for whatever reason lately. If we get it back Vog definitely seem to want to dispose of Kem, though they may put some work in there before putting it up for sale to increase its value.

Vog has about 4 staff employed on the Kem site keeping an eye on the place and nothing is happening at the site.



West Med:
They may apply for permission to put back the drills till 2013, its been put back before and don't believe it will be an issue if they want to put it back again.

WM seismic data is still being processed to try and marry up old and existing data. Sorry I lost concentration at this point so didn't catch the full meaning. No fixed date to release the report but could be a month or so.

Cost to drill two wells in WM, approx $20m for basic well, ie straight down not sidetracking (if I understood that right). A farm out looks preferred though, depending on Logbaba they may use some of that money to fund WM. If they do farm out they need to do more work so they can present it’s potential to a JV partner.

WM Well 103 has hydrocarbons but it doesn't make enough economic sense develop that well until they have a lot more to sell.


Falcon
is being priced up by year end but less likely to be the $12.5million, though this might suggest that it’s not so good a prospect as we had been thinking. This wasn't talked about in depth as time was getting short.

I don't think they are going to do the passive seismic survey now until a price has been agree, though they may do an (aerial ?) magnetic survey? …. See I said KYC should have come along…tch!


Liberia.
Huge potential off shore, KF got to chat to Mrs Big Cheese Liberia straight away with his connections. Would farm out if they win a licence.


Financials. (Otherwys may write more detail on this.)

Vog have no plans to duel list.
Future capex is split upfront 40/60
Vog always try to keep a few $m in the bank
No plans as yet for a consolidation


Summery

Overall a useful meeting as far as I am concerned and it increased my understanding of the company in a few places. The atmosphere was very good, friendly and I appreciated the time they took to engage with the PI's.

Looking ahead, imo the SP and Vog are closely tied together with obtaining the PL. Once that is in hand, life for management and PI will be less stressful and more prosperous. I don't doubt it will happen but nobody can say when it will happen so this will be the big question for the foreseeable future. I'm a long-termer so will wait it out. Capex is much reduced as there are no expensive projects on the go so together with the recent placing Vog have a the funds to wait it out as well, although obviously it's in the companies interest to get it asap.

Hope that is of help to some of you and sorry if it doesn’t answer all your questions.

Temu


PS There's something for everyone in there but beware the rampers/de-rampers that will pick out the bits they want for their own agendas!

PPS Meldrew throws snowballs like a schoolgirl!

PPS Off the comp now but will try and answer any observations tomorrow if I see them

Cheers
 

 

http://www.hbmarkets.com/assets/0/92/66493/...5-9c26-e9a92853ffed.pdf

 

 

 

Antwort von VOG (Email) auf EMAIL-Fragen eines englischen Forumteilnehmers aus Januar 2011:

 

ANTWORTEN von VOG auf Fragen eines englischen Forumteilnehmers:

 

Just a brief update as I sent JSB an email last week asking for a bit of info re licence and Vogs cash-burn. His reply was quite brief and he was busy but together with my LSE lap dog MeldrewMark we arranged to have a quick chat with him over the weekend, which Meldrew volunteered to undertake. From chatting with Meldrew earlier (so it’s 3rd hand now) and his reading between the lines, this is our take on the situation.

The Licence. As was reported in the December PI Forum, there has been some internal ‘ posturing’ (for want of a better word) within departments that were dealing with the PL, however JSB was out in Douala last week and Meldrew got the impression things had all pretty much been ironed out during that visit. There was no time-frame given for when it might be awarded but it is ‘moving apace’. I know we have heard similar before but we can only report what we have been told. JSB is back out in Cameroon again at the end of this coming week for a long stint so who knows?

Cash-burn, JSB was asked about the daily cash-burn and £50k a day was suggested , JSB said it was nothing like that amount. I have had a quick look in last years accounts and admin expenses were less than £16k a day plus 09/10 was a very busy year. Year 10/11 has for the most part been pretty quiet and as Vog has raised £20m with placing new shares since Sept and the company has pretty much been on tick over waiting for the PL for half a year I guess daily cash-burn is quite low.

Meldrew took the opportunity to ask about WM but Vogs main focus is on Logbaba as that is where the near term money is going to come from. Hopefully we should get an update on WM in the quarterly RNS due next month.

Only other bit of news was that ALL the equipment, including the processing plant is in Douala waiting to be joined, buried, screwed, hammered, slapped, welded, taped, tied, torqued, riveted and bolted together, probably starting the same day as they get the PL. Also the nearest customer is just 3km away so imo they could be receiving gas easily within 4 months from the kick off.

Sorry, can’t give any info on Kem, customer numbers, Falcon etc as it wasn’t asked but hope the above is of some interest.

Temu

PS Goose, a company called RSM have the other 40%, Vog farmed into RSM’s licence but RSM will have to pay Vog 40% of all exploration costs via the gas sales.

PPS Willurg, good spot. Another poster pointed that out to me a couple of weeks back, made a little enquiry and basically off-shore could be a possible for the future but for now Vogs 99% focused on Logbaba

 

just copied this from LSE board apparently a response to an email sent to VOG
 

Dear Mr........, Regarding your enquiry, our team in Douala are active in trying to progress the award of the licence. The relevant Cameroonian authorities have their requirements and procedures to follow and, of course, this needs to be respected. We cannot announce a definitive time line but we are confident we are close to getting all the necessary authorisations. Once the licence award is in place, we can begin to lay the pipeline and finalise all necessary civils requirements. This is expected to take a minimum of three months further to the award of the licence. I can assure you that all at Victoria are working extremely hard at achieving this goal in the shortest possible time frame. Kind regards, Investor Relations

Es hilft alles nichts ... nach wie vor ist wohl Geduld gefragt !