Der nächste Zock Evolving Gold
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http://www.ariva.de/forum/...zum-Multimillionen-Unzen-Producer-408396
Warum machst du nun noch einen Thread..... euch Pusher würde ich alle sperren!!!
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Diskutiere niemals mit Idioten. Die ziehen dich erst auf ihr Niveau herunter und schlagen dich dann durch Erfahrung!
Diskutiere niemals mit Idioten. Die ziehen dich erst auf ihr Niveau herunter und schlagen dich dann durch Erfahrung!
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Gold, weitere Hürden auf dem Weg nach oben. Experten Analysieren:
Frankfurt a. M. (derivatecheck.de) - Die Experten bei IG Markets analysieren die gegenwärtige Entwicklung beim Gold (Unze/USD).
Der Goldpreis sei von seinen Tiefs bei 1.157 US-Dollar in eine Reboundbewegung übergegangen, welche zuletzt das Retracementlevel bei 1223,80 US-Dollar erreicht und auch überschritten habe. Mit dieser Bewegung seien die Oszillatoren im Tageschart in die überkaufte Zone angestiegen. Sie hätten bisher aber noch keine Top-Bildung vollzogen. Solange die Supportzone bei 1.211 US-Dollar nicht unterschritten werde, bleibe die Bewegung weiterhin nach oben gerichtet und führe zunächst zum wichtigen Fibonacci-Resist bei 1244,80 US-Dollar. Dieser Widerstand stelle die letzte markante Hürde, vor den Jahreshochs bei 1.265 US-Dollar dar.
Die Analysten halten das Überwinden der 1.245er Marke für möglich, da sich die Oszillatoren im Wochenchart in der Bodenbildung befänden und begönnen, die Preise zu unterstützen. Die nächsten Resists bildeten sich dann bei 1.278 US-Dollar und der 1.296 US-Dollar-Zone.
(18.08.2010/dc/a/r)2010-08-18 08:50:18
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- Evolving hat mindestens 2 sehr aussichtsreiche Projekte Carlin und Rattlesnake
- Bohrungen haben hochgradige Goldfunde ergeben
- neue Bohrungen werden gerade durchgeführt
- Goldcorp der Branchenriese ist erst vor kurzem mit 15 Mio. Dollar eingestiegen
- Man verfügt über 30 Mio Dollar Kapital
- Die Resourcenschätzung soll in den nächsten Tagen kommen
- Das Management verfügt über viel Erfahrungen, wenn auch manchmal etwas ungeschickt im Umgang mit PR
- aus diesem Grunde bedient man sich nun einer externen PR
Ich finde diese Argumente rechtfertigen meine Einschätzung. So falsch ich auch liegen könnte.
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Filing Date Transaction Date Insider Name Ownership Type Securities Nature of transaction # or value acquired or disposed of Unit Price
Jul 14/10 Jul 13/10 Angus, Robert Stuart Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 100,000 $0.850
Jul 14/10 Apr 21/10 Angus, Robert Stuart Direct Ownership Common Shares 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report
Jul 09/10 Jul 09/10 Goldcorp Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 11 - Acquisition carried out privately 19,047,721 $0.820
Jul 09/10 Jul 09/10 Goldcorp Inc. Direct Ownership Common Shares 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report
May 25/10 May 21/10 Duncan, Robert Bruce Direct Ownership Options 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report
May 07/10 Apr 30/10 Inwentash, Sheldon Indirect Ownership Common Shares 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report
May 07/10 Apr 30/10 Inwentash, Sheldon Direct Ownership Common Shares 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report
May 06/10 Apr 30/10 Inwentash, Sheldon Control or Direction Warrants 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report
May 06/10 Apr 30/10 Inwentash, Sheldon Control or Direction Common Shares 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report
Apr 28/10 Apr 21/10 Angus, Robert Stuart Direct Ownership Options 50 - Grant of options 500,000
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Financial Commentator and Market Analyst Peter Grandich, who sees no end in sight to the "mother of all gold bull markets," expects the price of the yellow metal to climb past $2,000+ before the ride eventually comes to an end. But while gold has been riding high, its glitter isn't blinding Peter to the opportunities others may be overlooking. In this exclusive Gold Report interview, he shares some of his favorite gold juniors, as well as a mix of players in the cobalt, lithium, uranium and iron ore niches.
The Gold Report: Peter, you accurately forecast the market crash of 1987, the peaks of 2000 and 2007 and the bottom in 2009. Where is this volatile market headed now?
Peter Grandich: I've been looking for over a year for a countertrend bear market rally to end in the June–July period around 11,000. I think we are getting very close to that. There's still an argument to make that the market could rally a bit longer into late summer, early fall. But after that, the next part of my forecast was that the U.S. stock market would enter a long period—several years if not a decade or longer—similar to Japanese market trading after it peaked in 1989; and for 20 years, literally, went nowhere but had major bear market rallies and declines. That's what I'm looking for in the U.S. stock market.
TGR: How long do you think that could last?
PG: Years. It could be many years. I clearly believe that the U.S. equity market will underperform most other Western world markets. In other words, both could go down—but the U.S. market will go down more. After this summer and early fall, one of the last places people would want to invest will be the U.S. market. As much as it used to be the world's leading market, I think it's quickly becoming the market you least want to be involved with.
TGR: Is another market poised as an attractive alternative?
PG: I don't know if we'll have real bull markets in major markets in the coming years because, while acute in the U.S., the debt problem, obviously, exists in many other parts of the world, including Europe. We're living through that now. In the end, look at who the creditors are. Which economies are still able to lend to all these indebted areas of the world? They are likely the economies that also will do well.
TGR: Such as China?
PG: Yes, places like China, and to a lesser extent, Brazil. But I also want to point out that, while the U.S. and Canada are still somewhat joined at the hip as the world's two largest trading partners, Canada is fiscally light years ahead in terms of its balance sheet. Canada remains a very favorable place of mine and has a strong currency. It's the one currency outside of gold that I would have no problems holding.
TGR: And the Russians just bought some loonies.
PG: That's correct. Russia has diversified. I think we're going to see more of that. It's interesting about Canada; Canada was really a basket case in the early '80s. It was looked upon poorly in the Western world at that time. Now, of all the Western world economies, none is in as remotely good shape as Canada from a federal level. They'll suffer a little bit because they'll still be big trading partners with the U.S., but Canada will stand out. Its natural resources will continue to do well and there's no denying the fact that Canada has been far more fiscally responsible than the U.S. I certainly would be invested in Canada markets before I'd be invested in the U.S. market.
TGR: So you're pretty bearish on the U.S.
PG: Actually, since January, many people have emailed and sometimes called to say I've made an error by not turning outright bearish again as I did at the top of 2007. I parted ways with the bearish camp on what turned out to be, literally, one day before the bottom in March of 2009. Unlike many bears who stood in the way of this tremendous countertrend bear rally, I did not suggest putting my bear suit back on yet.
I have noted certain support levels. If they were broken I would put my bear suit back on but we haven't reached that. As we speak, a formation is starting to take place technically on the Dow, a head-and-shoulders pattern. If you can envision a picture of someone's head and their two shoulders, we've had the left shoulder drawn. We've had the head. Now, we would form the right shoulder if we rally back to that 10,800–11,000. I would be much more comfortable turning bearish not only because fundamentally I'm bearish, but also get because of what I believe would be a very bearish technical signal. That's what this reverse head and shoulders would be in my mind. So I wanted to alert my readers to watch for this potential formation.
People always think you have to bet either on a major decline or a big rally. Since the bottom in March of 2009, my argument has been that the market would enjoy the eye of the storm, during which we would have a tremendous countertrend bear market rally. Those who are bullish are bullish because they think the 2009 bottom signaled a new bull market. My argument has never changed. This is what's known technically as a "countertrend rally" in an overall cyclical bear market—a bear market that actually began back in 2007.
So all I've been looking for is a countertrend rally tied into a fundamental argument that we will go back into a double dip recession, etc., being lead fundamentally by two factors. 1) What's going to happen politically come November?; and 2) What's taking place and developing in the Middle East?
TGR: So you did not turn from a bear to a bull?
PG: I would never say that I've been a bull. I just removed my bear suit. I wasn't one of those people who made gains in the decline only to see them given back by staying short during the rally. I don't consider myself a bear until I actually say: "It's time to sell the market again." I haven't done that yet.
TGR: When do you think you will?
PG: I don't believe it will go past late summer or early fall. This time last year, I was in a very small camp to argue—and now and it's becoming more popular—that as we approach mid-term elections, there would be a revolt against incumbents in general—and Democrats, in particular. That will create a political nightmare in Washington, with what many will perceive after the election a lame duck one-term president who was swept into power and within two years turned out to be one of the least popular presidents. I think whatever political processes that might have been in place to take care of America's numerous problems will grind to a complete halt after the election. That will just add a log to the fire of how the world perceives the U.S. as a country totally in a mess. So that's been my argument and I still see that developing.
TGR: With that in mind, do you believe that now is a good time to get into the market?
PG: First of all, I don't believe in trading. I don't believe there's any reason to try to trade a few percentage point gains in the Dow or the S&P. I also have to say that Wall Street developed "speculating" as a replacement word so it wouldn't have to use the word "gambling." Those who trade might as well go to a casino because so much is up against you these days.
What's more important, and what we spoke about earlier, is the longer-term bigger picture for a bunch of reasons. You probably don't have time enough to write them all down; the U.S. is deep in serious fundamental problems—economic, social, even spiritual. It's going to be one of the least attractive places, globally, that people would want to be seriously invested in.
TGR: Having said that, the 200-day moving average seems to be one of the tools you put a lot of stock in to determine where the market is going. What appeals to you about it?
PG: First, let me clarify that I think of technical analysis as a good accessory. I don't believe in using it strictly as the only thing on which to base a decision. I have a lot of respect for some great technicians out there. But in my opinion, at the end of the day, fundamental analysis overrides technical analysis. I like technical analysis when I'm uncertain or not absolutely clear on a fundamental direction. If I'm leaning one way or another and my technical analysis supports that argument, the combination of the two determines my decision. Within technical analysis, moving averages are important.
Very short-term moving averages have no real significance to me because, as I said earlier, I don't believe in trading. But the 200-day moving average—the granddaddy of all moving averages—is something I look at. I also know it's important to look at, because the world at large looks at it. A lot of things that happen in the markets are borne out as self-fulfilling prophecies. If enough people report and comment on something and it starts to develop, it begins to feed on itself. So it's a very important technical tool and one of the few that I rely on a lot.
TGR: Is that primarily what you used to determine the crash in '87 and the peak in '07?
PG: No, it was always fundamental argument, but the technicals always supported it. Technical analysis has come a long way since the '87 crash. Back then, there weren't many people using it. I really didn't use it much either, but it helped in 2000 and, of course, getting out. Also when we took off our so-called bear suit on March 8, 2009, the main reason was because we'd become so oversold. All of the technical indicators I was using suggested that at the bare minimum, it was going to be a major relief rally. So I think technical analysis is a good aid, but I don't believe in using it as my sole compass.
TGR: You talked about gold hitting $1,300 an ounce in what you've called the "mother of all gold bull markets."
PG: The foundation of my bullishness on gold has been a few key points I've hammered home. Two of the main ones used to be big negatives for gold. It wasn't that many years ago that central banks were net sellers of gold. After the Washington Agreement, they started to measure their sales, and they've actually become net buyers in recent years. So one key bullish factor was the fact that a group that had been a major seller no longer was.
TGR: What else shifted from a negative to a positive?
PG: I used to argue that the mining industry was cutting off its nose to spite its face by hedging so much of future production. But the same hedging that had been so widespread has become like a four-letter word for mining executives. Even the mere thought of speaking about it brings the ire of institutional and retail investors. That's the second key point, and the second bearish factor that's become bullish.
The third thing that's accelerated the gold price beyond $1,000 is the realization that gold is simply the best alternative to paper currencies. About 6 or 12 months ago, I said the U.S. dollar was going to rally and that gold would rally in the face of that. Even gold bugs questioned that; they'd been weaned on the theory that a rising dollar was bearish for gold. My argument simply was that, for a while, the Dow would rally just because the world would concentrate on other bad currencies until coming back to the USD. I said the fact is that no one currency anywhere in the world—euro, USD, what have you—would do anywhere near as well as gold itself; therefore, look for gold to rise in most major currencies. That's exactly what's happening now.
None of those three bullish factors are even remotely close to changing direction. We don't see any sign of a central bank pickup in net sales. We certainly don't see the industry hedging. We definitely see the money flows into gold, and we see more and more counties and people of influence noting that gold is the only true money. That's why I still call this the mother of all bull markets.
TGR: Are you willing to put a timeframe on a price higher than $1,300?
PG: Our target for 2010 was $1,300 as a low end, and it could go as high as $1,500 if certain events unfold in the Middle East—which, realistically, are closer today than ever before. So even though we haven't printed it yet, $1,300 is a "gimme," and there's still the potential to run as high as $1,500.
Gold will never shine or look positive to many investors because to support it and to believe in it would be detrimental to the financial assets the world revolves around. The mistake people make is in waiting for world confirmation that everybody's on board on gold. It's never going to happen. And in my opinion, and that's a good thing.
TGR: A good thing?
PG: Yes. The day that it even remotely looks as though everyone's on board, we'll know we're very, very close to whatever the run is on the gold market. But my personal opinion is that the gold run won't end until at least it has a "two handle."
TGR: A two handle?
PG: That means gold will get to $2,000+ before this great bull market ends. That time is not yet in sight.
TGR: You've been a big believer in gold equities and hold a number of them. Could you give us updates on some of the companies you mentioned in your last Gold Report interview?
PG: Well, as I've said before, Evolving Gold Corp. (TSX.V:EVG; Fkft:EV7) is the most perplexing junior I've ever dealt with. Failure is the norm in the junior resource business; for each company that finds a significant deposit and is able to develop or sell it for a handsome profit, nine others don't. So it's impressive enough when a junior finds one world-class potential deposit. Evolving Gold has managed to find two. Yet the stock has been hammered and beaten up. The company has not done a great job on the corporate communication side in recent months, and it's depressed the price of the stock to a level that doesn't represent the real potential of these two projects. Either could be world-class and as things look now, both are still moving towards that. Given my prejudices and the fact that 99% of Evolving Gold's peer group would kill to have just one of those projects, I deemed it an extremely undervalued situation and personally bought 1.3 million shares.
TGR: Any other junior golds you'd like to talk about?
PG: Yes. Crocodile Gold Corp. (TSX:CRK; OTCQX:CROCF) and Timmins Gold Corp. (TSX.V:TMM) are two clients of mine, as well. People love the excitement of drilling and hoping an explorer finds something; they somehow lose sight once the company goes into production, and then miss out when these emerging producers still have a lot of exploration potential. That fits both Crocodile Gold and Timmins Gold. They're emerging producers. I think one of the areas that retail investors don't concentrate on enough would be in emerging producers; probably if they did they would have fewer losses. Both Crocodile Gold and Timmins Gold are going to produce 80,000–100,000 ounces a year, and those figures can increase. Yet they still have enormous upside potential as explorers. Their share prices don't seem to be reflecting that at the moment.
TGR: Are there any other juniors you're following?
PG: I'm looking in some areas that have been cast aside. One in particular is the uranium market. As exciting as it was a few years ago when many so-called experts were hammering home triple-digit uranium prices, a lot of those forecasters seem to have selective amnesia and forgot about that. I fell on my face and thought that uranium prices would have gone much higher and stayed there, too. They didn't, and the market continues to beat down anything related to uranium.
However, I think some companies in that space will be more than survivors. One is Strathmore Minerals Corp. (TSX.V:STM;OTC.PK SHEETS:STHJF)—again, a client—which is developing some key assets. This one, in particular, in the U.S. looks more and more like it's going to be a producer. Another is Crosshair Exploration & Mining Corp. (TSX:CXX; NYSE.A:CXZ). I think you have to look at uranium now. It's pretty well at its bottom. The market looks like it's groping for a bottom.
TGR: What else has been cast aside?
PG: One segment in the rare metals that doesn't get much attention because not many are involved in it is cobalt, which is also demonstrating a real need for strategic investing. Cobalt is among the minerals that the European Commission recently identified as having high supply risks, with potential shortages resulting from limited production and high demand. Cobalt is a component of our renewable and sustainable energies, from batteries to solar elements to powering turbines for wind generation. The U.S. consumes about 60% of the world's cobalt, yet produces none of it. Formation Metals Inc. (TSX:FCO), based in Idaho, is really developing the only pure-cobalt play in North America. Like many have in these tough times, Formation Metals has struggled to bring the mine into production—but they keep taking steps forward.
TGR: Speaking of batteries, you're no stranger to the lithium space. I see you've just signed on to help Lithium One Inc. (TSX.V:LI) with communications and investor and public relations—congratulations. You've also been close to Rodinia Minerals Inc. (TSX.V:RM; OTCQX: RDNAF).
PG: Thank you. I'm looking forward to working with Lithium One. It's a great company with two major lithium projects at this time: the brownfields Sal de Vida lithium brine project in Argentina and the James Bay bulk tonnage spodumene project in Quebec. As for Rodinia, I bought into that company primarily because lithium has all the markings to be a major part of the budding world revolution in rare metals and alternative energy. Rodinia is an exploration and development company with two projects, either of which could become very substantial.
TGR: Shareholders just approved a name change to Rodinia Lithium, right?
PG: They did. The change reflects the company's singular focus on developing its flagship lithium projects in North and South America. Its Clayton Valley project in Nevada surrounds the only lithium-brine producer in North America, and it's exploring four properties in Argentina. Three of them are in Salta Province, where the Salar de Diablillos is significant because Rodinia does not share that salar with any other operators or developer. This spring, the company completed the first tranche of a private placement to continue work on these projects and brought in Farhad Abasov as executive chairman. His expertise in the potash business should prove useful as Rodinia develops its lithium brine projects, because potash will be a substantial economic byproduct of extraction. All things considered, I believe that, based on the end-use market for lithium and what we now know from Rodinia's sampling initiatives in Nevada and Argentina, the stock is cheaper today than before this team got involved.
TGR: Do you have an eye on any more hidden treasures?
PG: Sometimes you'll find opportunities in the junior market by following people who've been successful and watching them when they set up shop again in something similar. In this particular case, Alderon Resource Corp. (TSX.V:ADV) is an iron ore play with many from the management team that was behind Consolidated Thompson Iron Mines Ltd. (TSX:CLM), which was a tremendous winner in Canada. Alderon Resource is currently drilling an iron ore project in Newfoundland and Labrador. When you see management people like that who have been very successful in one deal setting up shop down the road a piece, you really should be alert to that and take interest in it.
TGR: Any other juniors that appeal to you?
PG: Another large personal holding is Silver Quest Resources Ltd. (TSX.V:SQI), a gold and silver exploration company that became one of the largest land holders in the Dawson Range last year. That makes Silver Quest a key player in the big, budding gold rush—we haven't had one in years—in the Yukon. Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX:K; NYSE:KGC) now owns the majority of Underworld Resources Ltd. (TSX.V:UW), whose White Gold property is in an area where significant placer gold has been mined. Kaminak Gold Corporation (TSX.V:KAM) made a nice discovery.
As we speak, Silver Quest is drilling a very, very attractive project in the Yukon; that's its Boulevard Project, just 10 km. southwest of Kaminak's recent Coffee property discovery. But unlike a lot of the other Yukon players, Silver Quest it has real resources in other projects. I believe the share price doesn't even reflect that, let alone the potential for their Yukon play.
TGR: So you like Canada's currency and fiscal responsibility, as you said earlier, but also a lot of the projects you see there. Quite a number of the companies you've mentioned have a strong presence in Canada.
PG: It's funny. When I started in this business, you could count on one hand the countries that people in exploration and mining avoided because they could present problems. Now 20, 30 years later—people count on their hands the places to go without having a problem and Canada is one of them. The one area people could take exception to that statement would have been British Columbia; but, in recent years, the somewhat anti-mining stance there has changed. So there's a lot of focus now on Canada's natural resources, as well as the fact that Canada isn't facing some of political and social issues that are in other areas of the world now.
TGR: Such as those we're facing south of the Canadian border?
PG: People have been searching for the solution to the United States' problem. It may sound too simplistic, but it really is simple. Americans have too much stuff. You can't drive many roads in America without running into a public-storage facility. Our parents and grandparents never needed public storage. Until America realizes it has too much stuff and has to lower its living standard—and that it can't borrow against what it can't afford—all these other arguments and bailouts and so on will never get to the root of the problem.
It's like putting on too much weight; you can't take it off in six months. You can't take decades of overspending and being unproductive and fix it in six months, either. Unfortunately, I still see a very dark period ahead in the U.S. because there really isn't any movement yet to take those steps. Until America changes its attitude, nothing can be fixed.
Proud of his humble beginnings, Financial Adviser and Market Analyst Peter Grandich started publishing The Grandich Letter without either a high school diploma or even a day's worth of formal training. His widely read investment newsletter, in which Peter analyzed the metals and mining sectors within global stock and bond markets, morphed into a blog about 18 months ago. Peter's ability to interpret and forecast financial happenings—which earned him the moniker "Wall Street Whiz Kid" back in the day—has led to hundreds of media interviews including Good Morning America, The Kudlow Report, Fox News' "Your World with Neil Cavuto," BNN, The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, The New York Times, MarketWatch and dozens more. He's spoken at investment conferences around the globe and is regarded as one of the world's foremost market strategists. Gold, Energy & Technology Stocks newsletter publisher Jay Taylor considers Peter "most remarkable for a successful Wall Street pro. . .unashamedly independent and outspoken about his views, which frequently are anything but politically correct."
Want to read more exclusive Gold Report interviews like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you'll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Expert Insights page.
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Langsam aber sicher bewegt sich der Goldpreis wieder in Richtung neuer Allzeithochs auf Dollar-Basis bzw. in Richtung 1000 Euro. Gestern kostete eine Unze des gelben Edelmetalls 1230 Dollar bzw. 956 Euro.
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Staatsanleihen Kurz vorm Kollaps
Freitag 20.08.2010, 18:56 · von FOCUS-MONEY-Redakteur Helmut Achatz
Bloomberg US-Dollar-Note
Am Markt für US-Staatsanleihen bläht sich eine gigantische Blase auf. Wenn sie platzt, brechen ganze Volkswirtschaften zusammen – und sie wird platzen. Von FOCUS-MONEY-Redakteur H. Achatz
Da versteh einer die Welt noch: US-Finanzminister Timothy Geithner überschwemmt den Markt mit Staatsanleihen, um die Schulden der USA zu begleichen, die Kurse dieser Papiere sinken nicht etwa angesichts des Überangebots, nein, sie steigen sogar. Schuldenpapiere mit einer Laufzeit von zehn Jahren notieren wieder über 100 Prozent, 30-jährige Staatsanleihen sogar bei 104 Prozent und ausgesuchte Titel noch weit höher.
Für Nachschub ist gesorgt. Allein in den vergangenen Wochen emittierte das amerikanische Schatzamt Papiere im Wert von weit mehr als 70 Milliarden Dollar. Insgesamt dürfte sich das US-Staatsdefizit in diesem Jahr auf 1,2 Billionen Dollar belaufen, nach 1,5 Billionen im vergangenen Jahr. Der Schuldenberg der Regierung in Washington türmt sich mittlerweile zu einer Höhe von mehr als 13 Billionen Dollar auf. In diesem Jahr wird die Schuldenquote vermutlich 90 Prozent der jährlichen Wirtschaftsleistung des Landes erreichen – vor zwei Jahren waren es noch 70 Prozent. Dabei ist das nur die halbe Wahrheit, denn zu den Staatsschulden kommen noch die Verbindlichkeiten von Kommunen, Unternehmen und Bürgern. Insgesamt, so schätzt Claus Vogt, Chefanalyst der Quirin Bank, dürften dies zusammengerechnet 500 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts entsprechen.
Schulden führen zu Inflation
Niemand sollte sich jedoch von diesem Bild täuschen lassen: Historisch gesehen lösten exzessive Staatsschulden immer eine Inflation aus. Die Federal Reserve, wie die US-Notenbank offiziell heißt, „schafft zurzeit ein Inflationspotenzial“, so Vogt. Das entfalte sich aber erst, wenn die Kreditnachfrage anspringt, erklärt der Ökonom – und das könnte in drei Jahren sein. Nach Ansicht von Allianz-Volkswirt Rolf Schneider „absorbiert das Bankensystem die Liquidität“. Anders ausgedrückt, das viele Geld der Fed ist in der Realwirtschaft noch gar nicht angekommen.
Denn, wenn das so wäre, sähe es in den USA ganz anders aus. Statt über Aufschwung erwartet die Amerikaner eher Rezession, zumindest deutet vieles darauf hin. Das lässt sich sowohl an der steigenden Arbeitslosigkeit ablesen, wie an den entmutigenden Zahlen aus der verarbeitenden Industrie mit schwacher Produktionsauslastung und schrumpfenden Auftragseingängen. Der Immobilienmarkt liegt ebenfalls danieder. „Erst wenn die kommende Rezession ausgestanden ist, ist der Boden für Inflation bereitet.“
Ruhe vor dem Sturm
Bis dahin jedoch, ist Ruhe an der Anleihenfront mit stagnierenden Zinsen und weiter steigenden Kursen. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist auch zu verstehen, warum Banken, Versicherungen und Fondsgesellschaften weiter amerikanische Staatsanleihen kaufen. In den kommenden zwölf bis 18 Monaten lasse sich mit Schuldenpapieren von Uncle Sam durchaus noch Geld verdienen, glauben die Anleiheexperten. Denn weder Geithner, noch Fed-Chef Ben Bernanke werden an der gegenwärtigen Praxis so schnell etwas ändern – sie wären ja auch dumm, schließlich funktioniert dieser Mechanismus bislang reibungslos.
Selbst die staatshörigen Ratingagenturen spielen bislang klaglos mit. Von Standard & Poor’s und Moody’s bekommt die US-Regierung immer noch Bestnoten. Angesichts eines AAA-Rating (Standard & Poor’s) sehen institutionelle Anleger keinen Grund, US-Staatsanleihen zu meiden, zumal auch noch die Kurse steigen. Geithner, Bernanke & Co. profitieren ferner von dem Umstand, dass sich die Zahl der Schuldner mit AAA-Rating mittlerweile stark reduziert hat. Neben den USA blieben beispielsweise nur noch Ländern wie Deutschland, Finnland, Frankreich und die Schweiz übrig. Süd- und osteuropäische Länder, aber auch Irland sind bei den Bonitätsprüfern längst durchgefallen.
Die Zeitbombe ist jedoch scharf gestellt und tickt immer lauter. Die Anleger sollten deswegen den rechtzeitigen Absprung nicht verpassen, mahnt Vogt. Denn US-Staatsanleihen seien die größte Spekulationsblase aller Zeiten – und irgendwann platzt sie, schließlich muss der Schuldner seine Zeche letztlich doch bezahlen. Es ist nur schwer vorstellbar ist, dass Amerika spart, um seine Schulden zurückzuzahlen – im Gegenteil, Anfang Juni ermunterte US-Finanzminister Geithner seine europäischen Kollegen zu einer Politik der lockeren Hand. Von Einschränken hält er überhaupt nichts.
Das Vertrauen ist angeschlagen
Auf Dauer bleiben somit eigentlich nur zwei Auswege: Die Inflation anzuheizen, um die Gläubiger mit entwertetem Papiergeld abzufinden, oder die Zahlungsverpflichtungen ganz oder teilweise zu ignorieren. In beiden Fällen handelt es sich um einen verschleierten Staatsbankrott – mit gravierenden Folgen für das Vertrauen in diesen Staat und sein Geld. Spätestens dann meiden die Anleger Anleihen dieses Staats. Es hilft dann auch nicht mehr, wenn die Notenbank weiter Geld generiert, um damit Anleihen zu kaufen, die andere nicht mehr haben wollen. Sie sitzt heute schon auf einem Berg staatlicher Schuldenpapiere.
Durch diese Vertrauenskrise würde das komplette Währungssystem kollabieren – und träfe nicht nur die Amerikaner, sondern das Finanzsystem rund um den Globus. Im Fall Amerika ist ein schleichender Staatsbankrott besonders dramatisch, da der Dollar immer noch weltweite Leitwährung ist, in der Rohstoffe und andere Produkte abgerechnet werden. Der Rest kann sich leider nicht freuen, sondern muss die gewaltige Explosion fürchten.
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Edelmetall-Boom
"Ich sehe den Goldpreis bei 8000 Dollar pro Unze"
Herr Turk, der Goldpreis knackt einen Rekord nach dem nächsten und liegt derzeit bei über 1200 Dollar pro Unze. Sehen wir nicht längst eine Goldpreisblase?
James Turk: Nein, die Wahrheit ist eher: Nicht der Goldpreis ist hoch, sondern die Währungen, in denen Gold gehandelt wird, haben an Kaufkraft verloren. Im Vergleich zum Papiergeld hat Gold seine Kaufkraft erhalten. Ein Beispiel: Noch heute kann man ein Barrel Rohöl mit der gleichen Menge an Gold kaufen, wie das vor 60 oder auch 100 Jahren möglich war. Zudem laufen Besitzer von physischem Gold nicht Gefahr, dass ihre Einlagen verloren gehen. Dies könnte der Fall sein, wenn eine Bank pleite geht und Anleger gegebenenfallls nicht alle Einlagen zurück bekommen.
Physisches Gold zu besitzen ist aber kompliziert: Ich muss es bei einem Händler abholen und in einen Tresor legen. Wieso setzen Sie da nicht lieber auf Goldaktien?
Vermögen lässt sich klassisch in zwei Bereiche einteilen: Liquidität und Investments. Goldaktien sind für mich ein Investment. Goldbarren oder -münzen sind dagegen Liquidität. Schließlich hat der Goldmarkt eine weltweite Marktkapitalisierung von 6,4 Billionen US-Dollar. Im Gegensatz dazu kommt beispielsweise die größte Goldaktie Barrick Gold nur auf rund 44 Milliarden Dollar. Bei Gold sehe ich daher mehr Potential.
Zur Person
James Turk ist Gründer der Edelmetall-Handelsplattform GoldMoney. Seit 1987 gibt er den Investment-Newsletter Freemarket Gold & Money Report heraus. Der gebürtige Amerikaner begann seine Karriere im Jahr 1969 bei der Chase Manhattan Bank, wechselte aber bald in die Edelmetall-Branche und war von 1983 bis 1987 Manager der Rohstoffabteilung der Investmentbehörde von Abu Dhabi.
Wie groß ist das aus Ihrer Sicht?
Zwischen den Jahren 2013 und 2015 sehe ich den Goldpreis bei 8000 Dollar pro Unze.
Jetzt übertreiben Sie aber! Gold wird kaum als Industriemetall eingesetzt. Wenn sich die Unsicherheit an den Märkten legt, könnte der Goldpreis schnell einbrechen. Welche Alternativen sehen Sie zu Gold?
Silber und Platin. Da diese Edelmetalle mehr von industriellem Nutzen geprägt sind, ist ihr Preis jedoch wesentlich volatiler als der von Gold. Ich glaube nicht, dass der Goldpreis fällt, da Gold als Geld betrachtet wird und der Markt den Preis bewertet – nicht der Staat. Die Nachfrage nach Gold ist vorhanden – es gibt also keinen Grund anzunehmen, dass der Goldpreis einbricht.
Apropos Staat – wie stark ist Papiergeld überhaupt noch mit Gold gedeckt?
Es gibt seit 1976 keine Bindung mehr zwischen Gold und Papiergeld. Ich errechne allerdings seit Jahren den von mir so genannten „Fear-Index“, also Angst-Index. Zur Berechnung wird das Gewicht der Goldreserven der nationalen Notenbank multipliziert mit dem aktuellen Marktpreis und anschließend durch die verfügbare Geldmenge im Land geteilt. Daraus ergibt sich, dass Ende Juli in Amerika von den im Umlauf befindlichen Mengen US-Dollar nur 2,09 Prozent mit Gold hinterlegbar wären. Es gab Zeiten, da lag die Golddeckung des Dollars nach diesen Kriterien bei rund 30 Prozent.
Schlagworte zum Thema
RohstoffeGold Wie stehen Sie bei Ihren privaten Investments zu physischem Gold?
Da halte ich mehr als 50 Prozent meines Vermögens in Barren. Und ich will diese Quote in Zukunft noch steigern.
Gold bringt Ihnen im Gegensatz zu Aktien aber keine Dividende.
Gold hat in den wichtigsten Weltwährungen wie Euro, Dollar, Pfund, Yen oder Renminbi in den vergangenen neun Jahren durchschnittlich zweistellige Wertzuwächse gebracht. Für Papiergeld bekommen Sie derzeit nur Niedrigzinsen. Und die Dividende sehe ich als Risikoaufschlag.
Sie haben im Jahr 2001 den Internethändler Goldmoney auf Jersey gegründet. Nutzer eröffnen dabei eine Holding, Sie verwahren das Edelmetall in Zürich, London oder Hongkong. Informationen über die Kontoinhaber verrät das Steuerparadies Jersey nicht an andere Staaten. Wie stellen Sie sicher, dass Steuerhinterzieher Ihr Modell nicht missbrauchen?
Goldmoney ist ein durch die Jersey Financial Services Commission reguliertes Unternehmen und muss denselben Vorgaben und Regeln zur Erfüllung der Anti-Geldwäsche-Gesetze folgen wie Banken in Jersey. Mit der Zustimmung zu unserer Nutzungsvereinbarung versichert der Kunde, dass er den Gesetzen und steuerrechtlichen Vorgaben seines Heimatlandes entspricht. Sollten Kunden diese Regeln verletzen, verstoßen sie gegen unsere Nutzungsvereinbarung und ihre Holding wird geschlossen. Da wir Kunden aus 87 Ländern haben, ist es uns nicht möglich, die Vorgaben jedes einzelnen dieser Länder zu verfolgen – diese Möglichkeit haben aber auch Banken in Jersey nicht.
Sie verkaufen Gold an private und institutionelle Investoren. Woher kommt momentan mehr Nachfrage?
80 Prozent der Holdings eröffnen Privatleute. Sie machen sich Sorgen um den Euro. Kein Wunder wenn Jean-Claude Trichet, der Präsident der Europäischen Zentralbank, zuerst sagt: „Ich kaufe keine Staatsanleihen“ und er plötzlich seine Meinung ändert und sagt: „Übrigens, ich kaufe Staatsanleihen“. Die Notenbanken sind längst der verlängerte Arm der Politik. Aber in den letzten Monaten hatten wir auch verstärkt Anfragen aus Indien.
Asien ist ein gutes Stichwort: Was ist mit China, bleibt das Land in Zukunft ein großer Käufer?
Traditionell fließt Gold dorthin, wo der Reichtum wächst. Das ist jetzt in Asien der Fall, besonders China wächst rasant. Und verglichen mit westlichen Zentralbanken hält China prozentual wenig Gold. Außerdem wollen sie mehr und mehr weg von ihren gigantischen Dollarreserven. Auch das spricht für China als Käufer.
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Consensus Rating for EVG is STRONG BUY
Since many brokers have different rating systems, we maintain a standard system with an assigned numeric value from 1 to 5. Ratings are a translation of brokers' recommendations to the recommendation scale, which ranges from a rating of 1 (a strong buy) to a rating of 5 (a strong sell).
Current Average Recommendation 1.00
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It’s fair to say that Evolving Gold (EVG-TSX-V) has been frustrating at times. Past hiccups have left some shareholders tired and looking for the exit while new ones (like a major gold company) saw the cup half full and entered recently.
Evolving Gold Corp., as we know it today, began with a series of land acquisitions in late 2007 in Nevada, some by staking and some by an agreement with subsidiaries of Newmont Mining. The first drill holes undertaken by Evolving Gold were initiated that winter on two of the properties covered by the Newmont agreement.
At the same time as the company was acquiring properties in Nevada, Evolving Gold was negotiating to acquire the Rattlesnake Hills property in Wyoming. By January 2008 the required agreements were executed, and Evolving Gold gained control of the Rattlesnake Hills property. Evolving Gold initiated core drilling on the property later that summer.
The private placement by Goldcorp Inc. in July, 2010, was a major vote of confidence in the quality of Evolving Gold’s exploration properties and corporate leadership. It also ensured that Evolving Gold has the ability to continue its drill intensive style of exploration.
Evolving Gold’s leadership and exploration team, supported by a Board of Directors that has grown much stronger in 2010, believes in the power of sound geology and aggressive drilling in large scale gold systems. EVG focus its efforts in politically stable areas that have a history of supporting mine development. They’re discovering gold in places where the discovery can be efficiently moved to development and production. The Evolving Gold approach to exploration has produced results, two gold discoveries in three years.
The Focus Today:
Today Evolving Gold has 100% ownership of the Rattlesnake Hills property, about 5,600 hectares (13,338 acres) of Federal lode mining claims and State of Wyoming leases. Drilling started in 2008 and continues into 2010. It has demonstrated the large size of this gold system. Deep testing of a porphyry gold target has shown that the gold system is still strongly developed at depths of 1,000 meters or more.
In Nevada, in a major property acquisition effort, the company has acquired approximately 145 square kilometers (56 square miles) of mining claims and fee lands in the south end of the Carlin Trend in Nevada. Due diligence on several major land agreements in the Carlin/Humboldt projects was completed in August, 2010. Approximately one third of this major land holding in the Carlin Trend is tied to the Carlin Project and an agreement with Newmont, but it is important to recognize that two thirds of this land holding is 100% controlled by Evolving Gold in the Humboldt project. The company has also completed agreements for surface use and access on the fee lands. Drilling has demonstrated the presence of thick, high grade gold zones on this untested portion of the highly productive Carlin Trend.
The company also holds several other properties in Nevada and an early stage exploration property in southern Nunavut, but the major percentage of its exploration efforts are focused on these two properties, Rattlesnake Hills in Wyoming and Carlin/Humboldt in Nevada.
Results – Rattlesnake Hills:
Evolving Gold drilled 15 core holes at Rattlesnake Hills in 2008 and 78 core holes in 2009. These drill programs defined significant zones of gold mineralization at both North Stock and at Antelope Basin to the south. Some of the more interesting intersections included 146.3 meters at 2.92 gpt Au and 67.1 meters at 10.8 gpt Au at North Stock, along with 163.1 meters at 1.25 gpt Au and 76.2 meters at 1.77 gpt Au at Antelope Basin.
However, perhaps the most important exploration result from 2009 is from drill hole RSC-027, which intersected 30.5 meters at 1.89 gpt Au in a porphyry dike. This intersection included 15.2 meters at 3.11 gpt Au. Drill hole RSC-027 clearly demonstrated the potential for a well mineralized gold porphyry system at depth at the Rattlesnake Hills project. It suggested that the main zone of mineralization at North Stock, and perhaps at Antelope Basin as well, might be peripheral to the primary target on the property.
Much of the drilling in 2010 is designed to test outlying surface exploration targets and to provide infill and extension drilling of the known gold zones. However, a number of deep core holes, in excess of 1,000 meters, have been drilled or are still in progress to test the potential of the porphyry target first identified in 2009. These drill holes have intersected numerous zones of highly altered and mineralized porphyry as well as zones of stockwork veining and mineralized breccias. Assays for all these deep drill holes are still pending. Similar stockwork mineralization at the bottom of drill hole RSH-006 returned gold values of 14.3 meters at 2.21 gpt Au, with an individual 1.5 meter interval returning a gold value of 8.2 gpt Au. These gold values compare very favorably with developments such as Newcrest’s Cadia East copper-gold panel caving development in Australia, which has gold equivalent grades averaging approximately 0.9 gpt Au. The results they’re seeing from drilling the porphyry target at Rattlesnake Hills are encouraging, and they expect new assay results from this drilling shortly.
At this time, the company has four core rigs on the Rattlesnake Hills project. The drilling program has completed 32 drill holes, with four in progress and about 25-30 additional holes planned for the remainder of the summer. Drilling is expected to continue into early October.
Results – Carlin/Humboldt:
The first deep core hole, CAR-002, was drilled on the Carlin project to test a blind, geophysical target approximately half way between Newmont’s Gold Quarry mine and the Rain Mine to the south. The company had four main objectives for this drill hole, to determine if rock units favorable for gold mineralization were within drillable depths, to identify alteration typical of Carlin gold systems, to intersect favorable trace elements such as arsenic and antimony, and to identify the presence of anomalous gold. This drill hole was a major success in that it achieved all four objectives. This drill hole was the first to identify the presence of a strong, gold-bearing hydrothermal system in a neglected portion of the Carlin Trend. The gold mineralization was generally low grade, with the best interval being 35.1 meters at 1.21 gpt Au, but the thicknesses were encouraging. The fact that one 1.5 meter interval ran 11.9 gpt Au also indicated that the system had potential for higher grades.
The second deep core hole, CAR-007, intersected a thick, high grade gold zone, 18.3 meters at 11.7 gpt Au, with the highest gold grade in this drill hole being 1.5 meters at 57.9 gpt Au. This drill hole has confirmed the presence of what are potentially mineable thicknesses of ore grade gold mineralization in this under explored portion of the Carlin Trend. Additional wide spaced core holes have confirmed the presence of a large gold-bearing hydrothermal system.
The company has conducted additional geophysical surveys to refine targeting, and has defined over 24 targets on the Carlin/Humboldt projects. Of these, 16 are on land controlled 100% by Evolving Gold and are not subject to the Newmont agreement. The company has completed rotary pre-collars on both the Carlin and Humboldt project lands, and currently has two core rigs working on the combined projects. The first hole on the 100% Evolving Gold lands in the Humboldt project was initiated in June, 2010 immediately after executing one of the land acquisition agreements. This is an important step for the company in exploring its extensive Carlin/Humboldt land position. The company expects to continue drilling on the Carlin and Humboldt projects through the winter.
Summary:
Evolving Gold has made two gold discoveries in three years, both in large gold systems and each with the potential to grow into large scale gold deposits. Though the company has completed a large number of drill holes at Rattlesnake Hills, the true scale and potential of this system is just now starting to emerge. The company has initiated core drilling on its major land holding in the southern Carlin Trend in Nevada. This early stage drilling on the Carlin and Humboldt projects has identified gold mineralization of a thickness and grade that compares favorably with underground operations elsewhere on the Carlin Trend. Now with a strong Board of Directors, experienced and proven exploration leadership, and a strong treasury, Evolving Gold appears to have the ingredients needed for success.
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- der Goldpreis hat stark angezogen. Aktuelle Studien sprechen von hohen Goldpreisen in den nächsten Jahren. Dabei werden sogar Preise von bis zu 3.000$/Unze in den nächsten 5 Jahren für möglich erachtet. Bei gleichbleibenden Förderkosten steigt bei hohen Goldpreisen natürlich der Reingewinn.
- das Management von Evolving ist durch Tookie stärker geworden. Er bringt nochmals mehr Erfahrungen mit und ist sicherlich als einer der ganz Großen der Goldbranche zu bewerten. Jetzt sind außerdem noch PR Agenturen beauftragt, die Geschichte von Evolving zu erzählen. Evolving startet eine Road Tour durch Canada USA und Deutschland. Diese Aktie wird dardurch sicherlich noch bekannter.
- Evolving hat 2 sehr starke Resourcen. Carlin und Rattlesnake. Für Rattlesnake steht eine Resourcenschätzung bevor und bei Carlin hat man gerade zugekauft. Was die Resourcen angeht entspräche die aktuelle Marktkapitalisierung einer Resource von ca. 200.000 Unzen. Wir wissen zwar noch nicht was die Resourcenschätzung ergibt, aber es spricht einiges dafür das es sich dabei um eine mehrere Millionen Unzen Resource handelt. Was das für die Marktkapitalisierung bedeutet kann sich jeder denken. Daneben existieren einige andere aussichtsreiche Resourcen.
- Es haben bestimmt schon einige große Producer den Blick auf Evolvin geworfen - Fusionsphantasien sind sicherlich vorhanden.
- die Geschwindigkeit und Professionalität mit der die Projekte durchgeführt werden ist gigantisch. Hier wäre der Weg in 2 Jahren zum Producer vorstellbar
- nicht zuletzt werden sich aufgrund der Finanz und Wirtschaftskriese viele Investoren und Fonds auf Gold und Goldexplorer und Producer verstärkt legen müssen. Ab 1,5 Mio. Unzen geschätzter Resource müssen so oder so viele Goldfonds in Evolving einsteigen. Selbst Goldcorp ist hier bereits mit 15 Mio $ dabei.
Eine ganze Reihe von guten Gründen in Evolving einzusteigen. Ich denke das Evolving mittelfristig den Kurs vervielfachen wird. Mein Kursziel mittelfristig 3 €."
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"Evolving Gold Corp. (EVG) As of September 12th, 2010
Filing Date Transaction Date Insider Name Ownership Type Securities Nature of transaction # or value acquired or disposed of Unit Price
Aug 26/10 Aug 25/10 Angus, Robert Stuart Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 100,000 $0.767 "
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http://www.denvergold.org/i4a/pages/ index .cfm?pageID=3356
Ich denke einige neue Ergebnisse von Rattlesnake Hill würden die Sache unterstützen.