China Mobile's dominance bothering its regulators
Commentary: Could foreign operators be about to get a chance in the sector?
Given the current preoccupation with liquidity flows in the market, it could be easy to overlook another set of jaw-dropping subscriber numbers from China Mobile Ltd. after a new record month.
But instead of plaudits, this unrestrained dominance has triggered renewed controversy over the costs of China's lopsided telecom market. The logic for change looks stronger than ever.
China's regulators have been struggling with industry restructuring and new licenses for years now, but one way to even things up would be to welcome foreign carriers into this mobile market of 500 million-plus customers.
Last week, the No. 2 at China's telecom regulator the Ministry of Information Industry said that the government will announce plans soon to grant mobile licenses to fixed-line operators. This was followed by a report by the Development Centre for the State Council that called for relaxing entry barriers and issuing licenses to the fixed-line players or new entrants, fanning speculation on restructuring.
Could foreign operators be about to get a chance for a meaningful participation in the sector?
Chief Executive Avril Sarin delivered some upbeat comments about China prospects last week and left much to ponder with the following statement: "We will do anything the Chinese government wants us to do ... within reason."
Seven years earlier, his predecessor Chris Gent bought a 3% stake in China Mobile
and having held them through a roller coaster, they are now worth $13 billion -- a $10 billion gain.
There are a number of reasons why China might think it's time to allow greater foreign participation.
Speculation exists that Vodafone might be able to parlay this small stake into a bigger chunk of another operator alliance, rather than cash in.
The other operator with some decent cards on the table is South Korea's wireless leader SK Telecom, which earlier this year converted its bond into shares giving it 6.7% stake in Unicom, the No. 2 mobile operator. To strengthen its China credentials, it along with South Korea's vendors have been enthusiastically supporting China's homegrown and unproven 3G standard, TD-SCDMA. Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. also has a 2.6% stake in Unicom.
There are a number of reasons why China might think it's time to allow greater foreign participation.
It could give the fixed-line operators more chance of redressing China Mobile's huge advantage, rather than just handing out 3G licenses. While last month China Mobile added 6.6 million new users, the two fixed-line operators lost a combined 1.2 million connections; take fixed and mobile together and the mobile goliath now hoovers up almost 70% of the industry's profit.
Also 3G services will not be an easy sell in China. In fact, a government minister recently announced there was "no business case" for 3G. It will be challenging competing with costlier 3G handsets for new users who spend $6 a month, but it's all relative. A harder business case is surely trying to sell fixed-line phones. Another suggestion banded around, to wait for 4G, is surely not realistic the way fixed-line operators are hemorrhaging customers.
For China Mobile, the status-quo business case is clearly very comfortable. Unicom still must deal with the cost of running two networks, knowing it may end up being sacrificed in any restructuring and divvied up between the fixed-line operators.
Given China's strong desire to create its own network and intellectual property with TD-SCDMA, is it really best served by a behemoth carrying a market cap of $2.3 trillion? To foster innovation, you need the discipline of competition, not quasimonopolists. A plea made in the State Council's research was that China needs to do much better building multinational corporations that dominate global trade and research and development, and here competition has helped.
When it comes to TD-SCDMA, China needs an international effort to popularize it.
sells 40% of handsets in China; if it managed to get Vodafone signed up for its 3G standard, maybe the Finish handset maker would climb on board too.
Then there is China's increasingly acquisitive outlook to consider. There have been various rumors that China Mobile has had its eyes on mobile assets in Europe. Since the carrier is still effectively owned by the government, shopping overseas would be easier with a more open market at home.
Share prices at record highs across the sector also may make it look an opportune time to encourage some buyers.
Calling the timing of such change is not easy, but it could be worth watching for changes that reorder the status quo. It should be good news for any player that gets a foreign partner.
For China Mobile, you would expect they'd be happier having Vodafone as a shareholder than a potential competitor.
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