https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/201016298?utm_source=wechat_session
Unfortunately, we were right, Luckin really turned against the wind!
Jihai·GeoHey
Jihai·GeoHey
One-stop geographic cloud platform | Based on cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, help you solve geographic-related problems
3 people agreed with the article
We may love Luckin Coffee too much.
When it was in the limelight last year, Jihai explained to the bystanders- "Why can Luckin become a lightning-fast spoiler?" 》
This year it suddenly when the storm thunder, sea very nearly word parsing, which predict Rui Xing can handle it - "even if the delisting, the Swiss fortunate enough to store 4541 Hello eager to learn a lesson! 》
Within 2 months, the facts have proved that we have a unique vision! (The damn charm of geographic data~)
Recently, Luckin Coffee announced that more than 4,000 stores across the country are open as usual , more than 30,000 employees arrived on time, and the number of new users continues to rise. In July, Luckin’s single-store cash flow has turned positive (except for more than 300 unopened university stores) ). The management predicts that the company will achieve overall profitability in 2021.
This means that Luckin is no longer losing money to sell products, it is beginning to make a profit. The capital side did not shake the business side this time, and Ruixing stabilized.
As of August 25, Jihai monitored that Ruixing covers 190 cities in 27 provinces across the country, with 5176 stores, of which 540 stores are not yet open. This is basically the same as the actual number of stores that we monitored in July. In other words, it has not expanded stores and closed a large number of stores in the past few months, and its status is stable.
Based on the weekly store number change trend line and the monthly store number change trend line, it can be seen that the number of Ruixing Coffee stores has been on a downward trend recently, and it has also decreased by 3 stores in the last week.
But in August, Luckin still had 8 new stores or resumed business. Frequent changes in stores also show that Luckin is still promoting the optimization and development of its own stores internally, and it has not completely ended after half a year. The tea industry is accelerating its layout this year. What situation will Luckin face after this toss? Who are its "good friends"? Where? And is there any possibility of fighting and attacking between it and Starbucks? In this issue, we might as well take a quick inventory of Ruixing's current situation.
At present, the top 3 cities with Ruixing store coverage are 600 in Shanghai, 507 in Beijing and 348 in Guangzhou. The first-tier cities still have a strong sense of existence. However, the overall number of stores covering new first-tier cities is more, reaching 2,357. Therefore, from the perspective of the cities in which it is distributed, the positioning of the Luckin Coffee brand is relatively high-end.
From the perspective of store type structure, Luckin Coffee stores are mostly located in commercial office buildings, followed by shopping centers and residential areas . To sum up, Luckin's location strategy will give priority to office areas and shopping mall areas in first- and second-tier cities.
According to the comparison chart of the total number of stores in the same industry, the size of a single color block represents the number of stores of the brand; therefore, it can be seen that the total number of stores in Michelle Ice City, Luckin Coffee, Starbucks and Coco Milk Tea is the largest, and Luckin Coffee's The number of stores is at the top of the industry.
Moreover, through the stacked line chart of the number of stores in the recent 20 brands in the same industry, we can see that the number of stores in the tea and beverage industry has increased in the near future, so the overall trend of the industry has been steadily rising recently. . When the peers are like fish in water, Luckin's advantages will no longer be magnified.
So, who are the "good friends" around the Luckin store? Through statistics on the 500 surrounding areas of Ruixing Coffee, we found that the above brand has a higher probability of appearing around Ruixing Coffee, which means that the coverage of Ruixing Coffee is relatively high; the size of the circle represents the low coverage , Progress can be understood as a high degree of association. Therefore, for Luckin Coffee, Starbucks is the most common one, and it can also be understood that Starbucks is Luckin Coffee's "best friend", or a competing product. The arrow with the text in the picture represents the law between Luckin’s good friends . For example, the arrow of Coco Milk Tea>Starbucks Coffee means that Starbucks appears when Coco Milk Tea appears around Luckin Coffee. The probability is higher. The thickness of the line with the text arrow represents the probability of this rule
The relationship between Luckin and Starbucks is the “best friend”. Everyone knows that we compare the number of Luckin and Starbucks stores recently. It can be seen that Starbucks stores are relatively stable, and Luckin stores have a slight downward trend.
Judging from the number of stores opened and closed by the two at present, Luckin has 540 stores that are not open, and Starbucks has only one that is not open , so Starbucks' business conditions are better than Luckin.
Comparison of the number of provincial & cities covered by Luckin and Starbucks
In terms of the coverage of provinces and cities, Luckin and Starbucks have basically the same coverage and are evenly matched. Starbucks covers 2 more provinces than Luckin, and Luckin covers 8 more cities than Starbucks , with a small base.
By comparing the distance between Luckin Coffee's Starbucks stores within 1,000 meters, the average distance between the two currently meeting is 506 meters, and there are 3.82 Starbucks around each Luckin Coffee in the encountering store. The relationship is very close, and the encroachment rate of the business districts they meet is about 68.49%, which is at a high level . It shows that when Luckin and Starbucks met, their store location selection conditions were very similar. From a national perspective, the overlap rate of the two business districts has reached 268.15% . It can be said that there must be Starbucks in places with Lucky Fortune. So are they exactly the same in site selection? By comparing the five indicators of population, transportation, commerce, real estate and consumption within 1,000 meters of the two national stores, we still found a slight difference.
After the storm, Luckin Coffee is returning to calm. In the worst months, in addition to optimizing a few stores, Luckin did not lay off more than 30,000 employees and continued to cooperate with most of the original suppliers. The data proves that its current cash flow is not too big for the time being, consumers still have a strong willingness to spend, and the stores are still operating normally.
In the capital market, companies that continue to grow are very common, but not many companies have bottomed out. After Luckin Coffee experienced financial fraud, delisting, and a major change in leadership, its performance can be on the right track in a short period of time. Its measures and business models are worthy of careful analysis and reference. Especially in the location and layout of the store, Luckin Coffee spent more than two years, laying out four types of stores: fast-fetching store, takeaway kitchen store, flagship store and Youxiang store. The strategic focus is on the best commercial location. A quick-and-return shop. This store model also breaks through the large store model inherent in traditional chain coffee.
And different types of stores can also produce different services for different consumer groups, bringing a more extreme user experience. Customers, stores, and suppliers communicate closely with each other, thereby improving the efficiency of Lucky's operations. Therefore, we really have to admit that Luckin Coffee is a small business miracle, and there will never be less places worth studying. Jihai will continue to observe it with great interest.
|
Thread abonnieren
