Ich schätze die analytischen Fähigkeiten von Ennismore Funds und schaue mir gelegentlich deren monatliche Rundbriefe an, in denen sie jeweils einen Depotwert intensiver vorstellen.
Heute schaute ich in den Letter für den Dezember 2017 und fand diese Vorstellung von Cegedim:
"Cegedim – French healthcare software provider (3.2% NAV)
We initially invested in Cegedim in 2014 when the company announced the transformative disposal of its Customer Relationship Management and Strategic Data division. This had been the core business, but its dependence on a structurally declining base of pharmaceutical sales representatives meant it was struggling. At the time, we were excited by the opportunity to invest in a more focused healthcare IT business, with positive underlying trends and significantly lower debt. Whilst the share price is now approximately 30% above our average purchase price, it has turned out that we were too optimistic. The company had been underinvesting in its software businesses to boost cash flow and correcting this has been a headwind to profitability in recent years. We think Cegedim is worth highlighting now as it remains a large position in the Fund. The company also recently announced the disposal of its last remaining non-core business, Cegelease, improving its free cash flow profile. We believe that past strategic mistakes have been corrected and the return to organic growth and completion of major investments should drive greater profitability over the next two to three years.
Cegedim offers a range of software solutions, each targeting specific parts of the healthcare industry. The historic lack of investment has cost Cegedim some market share in recent years. However, given that healthcare customers are typically conservative and rely on the software for their day-to-day operations, this means that the company has experienced moderate customer churn and maintained strong positions in its core markets of France and the UK.
Currently, profits are being held back by a number of initiatives and factors. Additional development costs are being incurred to make all products available as cloud-based solutions and there is upfront investment in large business process outsourcing contracts with insurance companies. The company is also experiencing a migration of revenues from initial licenses to service contracts which spreads revenue over a longer period and therefore adversely impacts near term profits. 2018 should mark the first year of visible improvement with declining research and development expenses expected over the next 3 years, a stable workforce and organic growth of around 6%. We expect that the introduction of new software solutions will help regain lost ground especially for the French pharmacy and the UK business, supporting a sustainable return to profitable growth. This would do much to improve investor sentiment and restore management credibility.
In the first nine months of 2017, revenues increased by 6.3% on an organic basis to EUR 340m. The Health Insurance, HR and e-services division grew by 9.9% to EUR 208m whilst the Healthcare Professionals division remained largely unchanged at EUR 129m. We expect a return to profitable growth in Q4 and for the company to achieve its full year revenue guidance of circa EUR 465m. Furthermore, we expect an operating profit before depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of circa EUR 72m, resulting in a 15% EBITDA margin. Based on a current market cap of EUR 500m and an expected net debt of around EUR 130m by year-end 2018, Cegedim trades at an enterprise value to operating profit of around 14 times. Given the strong fundamentals of this business with solid growth prospects, good visibility from a high share of recurring revenues, high retention rates and low customer concentration, we believe it deserves a higher valuation. The reducing levels of investment should also boost cash generation and we expect Cegedim to commence dividend payments in 2018. In the mid-term, the company targets EBITDA margins of 20% in 2020 and based on its historic profitability and that of close peers Compugroup, EMIS and Pharmagest, this should be achievable. If delivered, the current valuation would prove to be very cheap indeed. Based on an enterprise value to net operating profit after tax of 12.5 times for 2019, we see 30% upside for the shares in the next 12 months and materially more if mid-term targets are met."
Siehe
https://www.ennismorefunds.com/documents/OEIC/...0OEIC%20Dec%2017.pdf