Katjuscha bewertet die Lage wohl richtig. Kaum kommt der Deal nicht zu Stande gibt es bereits, den ersten Analysten Kommentar, den ich soeben erhielt: Equity Research research.commerzbank.com 27 November 2018
FinTech Group Buy, TP €28, CP €20.70 * Austrian joint venture cancelled – upgrading to Buy Click here for the report on Bloomberg
This morning, FinTech Group decided to cancel the joint venture with Austrian Post – very good news for the shares as the main driver for under performance has now been removed. The main reason for cancellation is a delay in the banking licence approval process according to the company. View: Management can re-focus its capabilities on its core business and further expand its flatex operations. We increase our earnings estimates for 2020 and beyond and upgrade to Buy with a target price of €28.
What is new? Management decided to withdraw from the planned joint-venture with the Austrian Post. The main reason for the cancellation is an anticipated delay of the banking licence as the Austrian regulator needed more time for the approval process. Hence, an approval was not possible in 2019 and was expected later in 2020 – a delay which was against all economics of the JV.
What are the implications? We welcome the cancellation of the JV given 1) management can refocus capacity on its core business flatex which we regard as underperforming at the moment but consider the market opportunities in the German online brokerage market still as high and there is enough to do: the number of executed trades was rather disappointing until October this year underperforming comdirect bank and the broader market; 2) the earnings drag from the JV with high ramp-up losses is gone: management expected losses from the JV until 2023; 3) the misallocation of capital can be avoided with positive implications for the valuation of the company: There was the risk that up to €112.5m of capital would be allocated into offline retail banking until 2024. Conclusion: If management realizes that there is excess capital in the company at some point in time, we would welcome the pay-out via dividends rather than expensive adventures into offline retail with shareholders money.
What to do with the shares? Given the change in fundamentals, we consider the recent collapse in the share price as a Buying opportunity. We increase our earnings estimates as the JV is eliminated from our forecast: we exclude €26m of losses until 2022, 9%-35% of net income. Consequently, we increase our target price to €28 and upgrade the stock to Buy. Next catalyst for the stock is the handling of management stock options in January 2019.
Analyst: Christoph Blieffert christoph.blieffert@commerzbank.com
Also mal schauen wie es weitergeht, wobei die Frage zu klären sein wird: Was macht die Ö-Post mit dem erworbenen Aktienpaket? Bei ca. 1,2 Mio Aktien würde ein jetziger Verkauf aktuell einen Verlust von ca. 10 Mio ausmachen. Also was wird die Ö-Post tun?
Gruß Member4
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