persönliche Beobachtungen zum US Immobilienmarkt
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17.11.06 14:30 *ANALYSIS:US Oct Housing Starts -14.6% to 1.486m:Still Falling
17.11.06 14:30 *US OCTOBER HOUSING PERMITS AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE DECEMBER 1997
17.11.06 14:30 *ALERT: US OCT HOUSING STARTS -14.6% TO 1.486M;PERMITS -6.3% TO 1.535M
17.11.06 14:30 *US OCTOBER HOUSING PERMITS DOWN 6.3 PCT TO 1.54 MLN UNITS VS 1.63 MLN EXPECTED
17.11.06 14:30 *US OCTOBER HOUSING STARTS DOWN 14.6 PCT TO 1.49 MLN UNITS VS 1.68 MLN EXPECTED
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Ich glaube Du solltest erst mal Dein BWL-Studium anfangen bevor Du endgültig unqualifiziert mitreden darfst und Nachhilfe für Deutsch findest Du hier:
http://www.lerntippsammlung.de/nachhilfe-suchen.php?fach=1
Zwischendurch kannst Du ja ein paar Dagobert-Hefte lesen, da geht es auch ums Geld und drin baden und so….
obgicou Absolut! Die wollen mit dem Börsengang der Bahn Kasse machen. Doch hat die Bahn nicht so richtig viel davon, denn das Geld was bei diesem Börsengang eingenommen wird, fließt ja nicht unbedingt in die Kasse der Bahn, sondern in die der Aktionäre. Das Netz wird die Bahn zwar in ihren Bilanzen ausweisen, aber es bleibt weiter im Besitz des Bundes. (Das ist für mich sowieso ganz unverständlich, denn im Grunde genommen ist das so, als würde ich den realen Wert eines Mietwagens von meiner Steuer absetzen können, obwohl ich den eben nur gemietet habe.) Aber das nur am Rande.
Will man ein Unternehmen wie die Bahn an die Börse bringen, dann braucht es dafür ein entsprechendes Marktumfeld, will sagen, geschätzte 17 Milliarden Euro kann man nur aus einem Milchmädchenmarkt ziehen. Darum wurde der Börsengang immer und immer wieder verschoben. Meines Wissens waren die in den letzten 2 - 3 Jahren an die Börse gebrachten IPOs alle Flops. Selbst heute, bei einem Dax von über 6.400 Punkten würde der Markt an einem so großen Brocken "ersticken" oder anders ausgedrückt: Kein Mensch würde das Papier zeichnen, keine Regierung könnte sich eine solche Peinlichkeit erlauben. Die Bundesregierung ist sich dieser Tatsache bewußt, denn das Tafelsilber, auch wenn es im Fall der Bahn schon etwas dunkel geworden ist, verkauft man wenn der Silberpreis hoch steht.
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http://www.ariva.de/board/245194#jump2915641
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Gruß
Permanent
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Was man jetzt vermutlich abhaken kann, sind weitere Index-Höchststände - es sei denn, irgendein ein Wahnsinns-Analyst sieht in dem Housing-Crash "Zinphantasien", die den Gesamtmarkt hochtreibt. Man sich auch ein Klo zum goldenen Waschbecken umlügen.
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FORECLOSURES SURPASS 1 MILLION MARK IN OCTOBER
By RealtyTrac Staff
Foreclosure Filings Increase 3 Percent From September, 42 Percent From October 2005
IRVINE, Calif. – Nov. 17, 2006 – RealtyTrac® (http://www.realtytrac.com/), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its October 2006 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows that 115,568 properties nationwide entered some stage of foreclosure during the month, an increase of 3 percent from the previous month and an increase of 42 percent from October 2005. The report also shows a national foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 1,001 U.S. households, the second highest monthly foreclosure rate reported so far this year.
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“So far this year more than 1 million properties have entered some stage of foreclosure nationwide, up 27 percent from the same time last year,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “Monthly foreclosure filings were just below their high for the year, mirroring the trend from last year, when the most foreclosures of the year were also reported in October. Our data from the last three months shows that foreclosures are definitely trending upward, putting more pressure on an already strained housing market, and placing buyers and investors in the driver’s seat when it comes to negotiating home purchases.”
Colorado, Nevada, Georgia post highest foreclosure rates
For the eighth consecutive month Colorado documented the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate — one new foreclosure filing for every 327 households — thanks to a 25 percent month-over-month increase in foreclosure activity. The state reported 5,592 properties entering some stage of foreclosure during the month, more than twice the number reported in October 2005.
With one new foreclosure filing for every 389 households, Nevada documented the nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate for the fifth straight month as foreclosures continued to climb. The state reported 2,229 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, an increase of 16 percent from the previous month and more than six times the number reported in October 2005.
Thanks to a 33 percent month-over-month increase, Georgia’s foreclosure rate — one new foreclosure filing for every 449 households — jumped to third highest in October after being fifth highest the previous month. The state reported 6,895 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, almost twice the number reported in October 2005.
Other states reporting foreclosure rates among the nation’s 10 highest were Michigan, Illinois, Florida, Ohio, Tennessee, New Jersey and Utah.
California reports highest number of foreclosures for second straight month
More than 16,000 California properties entered some stage of foreclosure during October, the most of any state for the second straight month and an increase of more than 8 percent from the previous month. The state’s foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 759 households rose to 1.3 times the national average and was 12th highest among the states. California foreclosure activity has more than tripled from a year ago.
With 11,413 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, Florida reported the second most foreclosure filings of any state and a foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 640 households — 1.6 times the national average and sixth highest among the states. Florida’s foreclosure activity was down almost 12 percent from the previous month but up nearly 50 percent from October 2005.
Texas, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Georgia, Colorado, New Jersey and New York rounded out the 10 states with the most new foreclosure filings in October.
Highest metro foreclosure rates in Colorado, Michigan and California
For the third month in a row, Greeley, Colo., posted the highest foreclosure rate among the nation’s 200-plus largest metropolitan areas. The Greeley metro area (Weld County) documented 378 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, a foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 175 households — 5.7 times the national average.
With 4,216 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, the Detroit metropolitan area (Wayne County) registered the nation’s second highest metro foreclosure rate — one new foreclosure filing for every 196 households.
Modesto, Calif., posted a foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 214 households, third highest among the nation’s metropolitan areas. The metropolitan area (Stanislaus County) reported 705 properties entering some stage of foreclosure during the month.
The RealtyTrac Monthly U.S. Foreclosure Market Report provides the total number of homes entering some stage of foreclosure nationwide and by state over the preceding month. Data is also available at the individual county level. RealtyTrac’s report includes properties in all three phases of foreclosure: Defaults — Notice of Default (NOD) and Lis Pendens (LIS); Auctions — Notice of Trustee Sale and Notice of Foreclosure Sale (NTS and NFS); and Real Estate Owned, or REO properties (that have been foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank).
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UK housing market could crash within two years - Morgan Stanley
22.11.06 12:58
LONDON (AFX) - The UK's housing market could crash within two years, according to a former government adviser on the mortgage market. David Miles, economist at Morgan Stanley, has warned that "a substantial fall in real house prices is likely at some point in the relatively near future, though it could yet be one or two years away". Miles, author of the landmark 2004 Miles Report into why UK households do not take up US-style long-term fixed mortgages, questioned the sustainability of current prices and argued that there is a large speculative element at present. He said real house prices have more than doubled in the UK over the last ten years due to income growth, population growth and falling real interest rates, but that between a third and one half of the change reflects changes in expected house price inflation. "Falling real house prices at some point are likely, but timing is very difficult to predict," he said. "The key question is whether, starting from here, we are likely to have significant falls in real house prices once those expectations come down," he added. A raft of surveys in recent weeks have shown the housing market going from strength to strength, seemingly brushing off August's first rate rise in more than two years. Most commentators reckon the increase in the key repo rate to a five-year high of 5.00 pct in early November is likely to cool things down in the new year but very few are actually predicting a fall in prices. pan.pylas@afxnews.com pp/pp/lam COPYRIGHT Copyright AFX News Limited 2006. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of AFX News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of AFX News. AFX News and AFX Financial News Logo are registered trademarks of AFX News Limited
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Garvey ist kein Einzelfall. 2005 sollen Betrüger wie er Anleger um insgesamt eine Milliarde Dollar geprellt haben.
NEW YORK TIMES
November 26, 2006
The High Cost of Too Good to Be True
By JULIE CRESWELL and VIKAS BAJAJ
AS the red-hot California real estate market sizzled in recent years, National Consumer Mortgage looked like just another residential mortgage company successfully riding the boom. It had lush offices in downtown Orange; the former baseball great Steve Garvey promoted its products in radio spots; and its founder, Salvatore Favata, a former local baseball hero himself, lived in a $1.7 million mansion in tony Yorba Linda and zipped around in a Mercedes roadster. An annual “Favata Fest” at the founder’s home featured live music and photo ops with Mr. Garvey.
The little mortgage company was also ambitious. N.C.M. ran an investment arm that offered high-yielding notes to preferred clients, promising to use customers’ funds to make short-term, high-interest loans to individuals and companies that needed money quickly. For customers like Bryan F. Downey, a 41-year-old father of three, it was a tantalizing pitch. Mr. Downey had a $125,000 inheritance that he wanted to put to work, and his younger brother had already invested his inheritance with N.C.M.
In April 2005, Mr. Downey invested the entire $125,000 in N.C.M. notes guaranteeing annual interest payments of 12.5 percent for two years. After the contracts were signed, Mr. Downey recalls, Mr. Favata, 46, tan and trim, glided into the conference room, which had a view of Angel Stadium, nearby in Anaheim. Mr. Favata greeted him like an old friend and shook his hand, saying, “Welcome to the family.” It’s a relationship Mr. Downey now wishes he could disown.
Earlier this spring, Mr. Downey, along with more than 200 others living mostly in California and Colorado, found out they were victims of a long-running Ponzi scheme that pulled in about $30 million before N.C.M. sought bankruptcy this spring, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission civil complaint and filings in a federal criminal case, both filed in United States District Court for the Central District of California in Santa Ana. Rather than using the money to make loans, authorities say, Mr. Favata wagered away about $10 million of it in Las Vegas and plowed through much of the rest in his business dealings and lavish lifestyle.
The N.C.M. scheme, of course, is hardly novel. It is not even all that big by recent standards. But it bears all the hallmarks that have made financial scams possible for generations: naïve trust, a speculative market offering seemingly easy riches, and gilded lures hitched to people’s unending desire to keep up with the Joneses. So why is it that year after year, century after century, certain people fall for financial dodges, regardless of their provenance?
“You would think living in an information age it would be easier for people to sort out the fact that these schemes exist,” says James H. Burrus, assistant director with the Federal Bureau of Investigation in Washington. “But so much information is available and coming at people at different ways that the fraudsters are much better at adapting to the environment to defraud the victims out their money.
“People believe their next-door neighbor is investing in property, flipping it and getting rich quick,” Mr. Burrus added. “Everybody seems to be doing it. Fraudsters take advantage of those types of cycles.”
But con artists don’t use greed alone. Analysts say a variety of factors come into play when scams are afoot, many of which revolve around a fear of financial and emotional vulnerability — concerns about not having saved enough to send your children to college; the isolation and loneliness of the elderly; the stress that accompanies career changes; or the loss of a loved one.
MONEY, especially fast money, offers a buffer of sorts in an uncertain world. And con artists are only too happy to wear the guise of the market sage or guardian angel.
“The best scams start with a kernel of truth that are ripped right out of the headlines,” explained Joseph P. Borg, director of the Alabama Securities Commission and president of the North American Securities Administrators Association. “Oil prices are up. There’s a war in Afghanistan and Iraq. Tainted spinach. All of these can spawn frauds.”
Faced with the opportunity to invest on the ground floor of something completely plausible and, better yet, exclusive, some jump in with both feet. “It’s a combination of greed and a feeling of, ‘If somebody is going to make money, why not me?’ ” Mr. Borg said.
The inner workings of the N.C.M. scheme, which snared wealthy professionals as well as retirees on fixed incomes, suggest that the common perception that only the elderly, less sophisticated or less well-off investors can be duped may be flawed — that a large cross-section of society can be swindled out of large sums.
Mr. Favata used existing investors, to whom he was faithfully making interest payments, to recruit their friends and family members. The promised returns were not so outsize as to raise the suspicions of more sophisticated investors. Payments, which came monthly or quarterly, lulled many into believing that their investments were safe and solid — at least for a while.
“They were really slick in how they presented themselves, how they looked, even where the building was located,” recalled Mr. Downey, who attended college for two years and now licenses consumer products for a private company. “They looked like they were making lots of money and that they had lots of good investors.”
Mr. Favata, who struck a plea deal with prosecutors in the federal district court in Santa Ana, declined to comment. “Mr. Favata has fully accepted responsibility for his actions,” said his lawyer, Nathan J. Hochman, from Beverly Hills. “He is completely cooperating with federal and state authorities and will devote the rest of his life toward paying back the people he has taken money from.”
Regulators have not accused Mr. Garvey of wrongdoing, and he does not appear to have invested in the scheme. Messages left for him with his agent were not returned.
Experts say that for those caught up in financial scams, especially schemes similar to the one Mr. Favata has acknowledged engineering at N.C.M., the early stages are exhilarating and therefore magnetic. Indeed, until the moment investors finally absorb the fact that they may have been duped and their money gone forever, speculating on a “sure thing” has all of the warm and fuzzy benefits of a freewheeling joy ride.
In its purest form, being involved in a bogus get-rich-quick scheme is like a trip to Disneyland, says Anthony Pratkanis, a psychology professor at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and co-author of “Weapons of Fraud: A Source Book for Fraud Fighters.” Professor Pratkanis equates being taken in by a fraud to riding the Pirates of the Caribbean attraction.
“You’re experiencing the ride, singing, ‘Yo ho ho! It’s a pirate’s life for me,’ but you never see any of the trappings of the ride itself,” he said. “Criminals call it, ‘putting the victim under the ether.’ ”
In other words, once they have taken the bait, victims typically stop asking questions. While there are various estimates of how many people are taken in by cons and how much money they lose, experts and law enforcement authorities acknowledge that their best guesses are just that. The F.B.I., for instance, believes that more than $1 billion was lost to mortgage fraud last year. While that number seems substantial, experts note that it represents a minute fraction of the $3 trillion in mortgages issued last year.
There may never be a comprehensive tally of fraud, in large part because it is one of the most underreported crimes, authorities say. Some victims deny, even to themselves, that they have been defrauded, while others are simply too embarrassed to tell anyone. No demographic group is immune to fraud, and sophisticated con artists tailor their pitches to their audience.
A younger victim may be motivated by a rich payday, while the elderly appear to fall for schemes that claim to involve the government or a charity, said Sid Kirchheimer, author of “Scam-Proof Your Life,” a book published by AARP.
“None of them say they wanted to get rich,” Mr. Kirchheimer said of the elderly he counsels through his work at AARP. “They tell me that their grandson wants to go to college and they wanted to help him — at least that’s what they tell me.”
Fraud operators are also deft at using middlemen to become associated with a community group or religious organization. The authorities label these schemes “affinity frauds,” because they take in people who have a common interest.
“Whether in a religious group or any other community-based organization, all you may need to do is scam one person very aggressively, in hope that this ‘centerpoint’ will start peddling the scheme to other members,” said John Reed Stark, chief of the office of Internet enforcement at the S.E.C. “The centerpoint may not even profit or be at all complicit in the scheme, but he or she nonetheless becomes an important part of the overall con.”
ONE investment pitch under investigation occurred in Indianapolis and involved Robert Penn, who owned several property management and real estate businesses and cut a charming figure in the community. Mr. Penn has been accused in a lawsuit — filed in Marion County Circuit Court in Indianapolis by the mortgage giant Countrywide Financial and other lenders — of orchestrating a scheme to use straw buyers to file hundreds of fraudulent mortgages worth upwards of $40 million.
In a response filed in court, Mr. Penn denied the allegations; he and his lawyers did not return phone calls seeking comment. Countrywide is contending that Mr. Penn and his associates sold it overpriced mortgages they took out in the names of his investors. Federal prosecutors are looking into the allegations.
Mr. Penn came across as savvy and self-assured, yet always concerned for the well-being of those around him, recall people who worked and invested with him. One of those people was Cynthia K. Hancock, who met Mr. Penn through her former colleagues in 2003.
Ms. Hancock, then an aide at an animal research lab at the Indiana University School of Medicine, describes herself as unsophisticated about finance and real estate. “I don’t carry a Coach handbag; I have never had a manicure,” she said. “I have just worked all my life and paid my bills. That’s why I had such a great credit score. I thought for once my credit score could help me get a little ahead.”
Ms. Hancock said Mr. Penn told her — as well as many individuals in rural Virginia, where his sister lived and his mother served as a lay minister to a small congregation — that their credit scores could help them make money the way rich people do: in real estate.
To Ms. Hancock and the others who heard the stories of easy money in real estate or read them in newspapers, it was a credible pitch. All they had to do was put their names on multiple mortgage applications, thereby “investing” their credit scores, they said Mr. Penn told them. The borrowers saw little downside; they were not asked to put any money down. They said Mr. Penn told them that he and his business associates would do that on each borrower’s behalf.
When some received a check for several thousand dollars, it seemed that the investment was paying off as it was billed. Then, they said, they discovered that they were on the hook for hundreds of thousands of dollars in inflated mortgages taken out on homes in Indiana, some of them in rundown neighborhoods. Ms. Hancock, who worked at Mr. Penn’s property management company for a year and a half, owned five homes. Her daughter — a law student — was named as the buyer for four homes. All of the homes have been foreclosed on, and Ms. Hancock and her daughter are considering filing for bankruptcy protection.
IN hindsight, it is easy to see where Mr. Penn’s investors made their mistakes: they were hurried through paperwork and did not read what they were signing. No one asked to see the properties they were buying or pressed for confirmation that rents were being collected and mortgages were being paid. And the investors said Mr. Penn also tapped into key vulnerabilities, particularly those among the largely African-American, working-class investor group in Virginia. By investing in real estate, they said he told them, they could start to close the financial gap between them and white middle-class investors.
Many investors also dropped their guards because Mr. Penn’s family, and his mother in particular, were viewed as religious leaders in the area. Spirituality and predatory practices never intermingle, investors believed.
“The whole basis of church affiliation is a sense of morality,” Mr. Kirchheimer said. “Your natural resistance, your armor will probably be a little less because you are assuming people there are more moral.”
Establishing — and ultimately violating — a bond of trust is at the heart of many frauds, whether it comes through a religious affiliation or a longstanding business relationship.
If there was one person whom Melissa A. Miller of Parker, Colo., thought she could trust, it was Robert O. Bryant, a friend and her insurance agent for 10 years. When Ms. Miller sold her dental practice in 2005, she said, she was not sure what to do with her money.
A fairly conservative investor, she said she was skeptical when Mr. Bryant first told her about Mr. Favata’s private notes. She talked with her friends in the real estate business as well as her father, who owned rental property and had experience with similar instruments, eventually concluding that the notes were a safe bet because the properties served as collateral.
Ms. Miller, 39, and her husband, Sam, an airline pilot, who have three daughters and a son, invested $575,000 in N.C.M. notes. She recruited her father, Dennly R. Becker, and he invested $250,000. Aside from the few interest payments they received, the father and daughter believe that most of that money is lost.
“Yes, I am embarrassed,” Ms. Miller said. “I am ashamed that I got my family involved in this. But it could absolutely happen to everybody.
“They seemed so trustworthy,” Ms. Miller said of Mr. Favata and Mr. Bryant, “which is what got everybody.
“They were knowledgeable,” she added. “They had every answer to every question you could ask about this scheme.”
OR almost every answer. John P. Brincko, a management consultant advising the creditors committee in N.C.M.’s bankruptcy, said that none of the investors, to his knowledge, asked to see the deeds of trust that ostensibly backed their investments. Ms. Miller said that she asked to see them several times, but that Mr. Bryant rebuffed her with excuses: the deeds would be available after the loans had been made; he would pick up the deeds when he visited Mr. Favata next; and, just before the scheme collapsed, he said he had forgotten to bring them back from California.
Mr. Bryant has not been charged with any crime. He did not respond to an interview request and is listed in N.C.M.’s bankruptcy filing as having lost close to $1 million of his own money.
In October, Mr. Favata agreed to plead guilty to one count of mail fraud in exchange for a five-year sentence, a $250,000 fine and repayment of more than $20 million to the victims, all of which is still to be approved by a judge. But it is unclear whether the victims will receive much beyond pennies on the dollar. His mansion in Yorba Linda will be sold to pay victims, but he appears to have few other hard assets, the authorities say. The Mercedes roadster and a Lincoln Town Car that he drove, for instance, were leased by N.C.M.
Brent G. Tabacchi, an assistant United States attorney based in Santa Ana, said the investigation was continuing but that the prosecutors had decided to settle with Mr. Favata because, among other reasons, he turned himself in, gave up his assets and agreed to a restitution plan.
But for the victims of fraud, there are some losses that can never be repaid.
“I lost a lot of faith in human beings — I will really not trust someone with my money now,” said Mr. Downey, who regrets losing his father’s money. “He worked hard to become middle class, he left us a nice home that we sold, and we all got taken in by a clown in Orange County.
“I foolishly fell for this because I went into their beautiful building that was overlooking Angel Stadium,” he added. “They even promised me box seats.”
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Gläubiger der Leipzig West AG beraten über ihr Vorgehen
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In Leipzig haben sich am Montagvormittag Gläubiger der insolventen Leipzig West AG versammelt. Thema der Gläubigerversammlung ist die weitere Verfahrensweise in dem Insolvenzverfahren des im Juni dieses Jahres pleite gegangenen Unternehmens. So soll geprüft werden, ob sich die Gläubiger auf einen Vertreter einigen können, um das Verfahren zu vereinfachen. Allerdings sind statt der erwarteten 8.000 Gläubiger nur etwa 500 bis 1.000 erschienen.
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Der Berliner Rechtsanwalt Jochen Resch vertritt nach eigenen Angaben mehr als 2.000 Gläubiger; Rechte: ddp
Der Berliner Rechtsanwalt Jochen Resch vertritt nach eigenen Angaben mehr als 2.000 Gläubiger
Falsche Renditeversprechungen
Der Fall der Leipzig West AG gilt als einer der größten Finanzskandale Ostdeutschlands. Das Unternehmen soll mit hohen Renditeversprechungen von tausenden Anlegern etwa 250 Millionen Euro eingesammelt haben. Das Geld wurde jedoch nicht angelegt, sondern in einer Art Schneeballsystem als Zinsen an andere Anleger ausgezahlt. Im Juni meldete das Unternehmen Insolvenz an.
Nach Schätzungen von Gläubigeranwälten und Insolvenzverwalter sind dadurch 25.000 bis 48.000 Anleger um ihre Einlagen gebracht worden. Der Berliner Rechtsanwalt Jochen Resch, der nach eigenen Angaben mehr als 2.000 Geschädigte vertritt, sah vor Beginn der Gläubigerversammlung in Leipzig allerdings wenig Hoffnung, dass die Gläubiger ihr Kapital wiederbekommen könnten. Die Gelder seien aus dem Unternehmen abgezogen worden, sagte er. Es bestehe die Befürchtung, dass sie ins Ausland abgezogen wurden.
Nach Angaben von Insolvenzverwalter Lucas F. Flöther stehen den Vermögenswerten der Leipzig West AG in Höhe von 48 Millionen Euro Verbindlichkeiten von 311 Millionen Euro gegenüber. Rund 3,5 Millionen Euro Vermögenswerte konnten laut Staatsanwaltschaft gesichert werden.
Die Staatsanwaltschaft ermittelt gegen Mitglieder der Geschäftsführung und des Aufsichtsrates. Gegen zwei frühere Chefs wurde bereits Anklage erhoben.
zuletzt aktualisiert: 27. November 2006 | 12:51
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in den USA ist die Quote in der privaten Altersvorsorge ungefähr 50% Betongeld 50% Aktien und Renten; die Steigerungen am Aktienmarkt haben somit den Wertverlust bei den Häusern bisher überkompensiert;
die Frage ist wie nachhaltig die Steigerungen am Aktienmarkt sind und ob die Krise am Hausmarkt weitergeht.
Näheres dazu werden wir diese Woche mit den Homesale und Average-Sales-Price Daten aus den USA erfahren. Daher wird es auch zu heftigen Ausschlägen im Dow kommen sollten die Zahlen in die ein oder andere Richtung überraschen.
Ich gehe aufgrund der Indikatoren (Pending Home Sales im September und schwacher Purchase-Index der MBA im Oktober) von schwachen Zahlen aus.
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| HANDELSBLATT, Dienstag, 28. November 2006, 09:36 Uhr |
WohnimmobilienmarktWarnsignale aus den USAVon M. Kurm-EngelsDer Präsident der Federal Reserve Bank von Dallas, Richard W. Fisher, hält den Einbruch am US-Wohnimmobilienmarkt für ein „sehr ernstes Problem“. Die Häuserpreise, die vor wenigen Monaten in den Vereinigten Staaten noch mit zweistelligen Jahresraten gestiegen sind, stagnieren inzwischen oder geben nach.FRANKFURT. Fisher räumt im Gespräch mit dem Handelsblatt ein, dass die US-Währungshüter in Wahrheit keine klare Vorstellung davon haben, wie sich die Situation bei Wohnimmobilien letztlich auf die Konjunkturdaten auswirken wird. „Ich bin derjenige, der am eindringlichsten vor dem potenziellen Ausmaß einer Abwärtskorrektur warnt“, sagte Fisher, der als Fed-Chef von Dallas den Sitzungen des Offenmarktausschusses (FOMC) beiwohnt, der über die US-Zinspolitik entscheidet. Es gehe ja nicht nur darum, wie weit die Zahl der Hausbauten, Hausverkäufe und Baugenehmigungen zurückgehe. Es komme auch darauf an, wie lange der Prozess andauere. Stark sinkende und über einen langen Zeitraum hinweg niedrige Notenbankzinsen hatten die Hausnachfrage in den USA angeheizt. Bei steigenden Immobilienpreisen fühlten sich viele Amerikaner reicher und beliehen den Wertzuwachs. Ein Teil der neu gewonnenen Liquidität floss in den Konsum. Seit Ende 2005 schwächt sich der Immobilienmarkt jedoch ab. Im Oktober gaben die Baubeginne in den USA gegenüber dem Vorjahr um 27 Prozent und die Baugenehmigungen um 28 Prozent nach. Nach Ansicht von Fisher wäre dem US-Immobilienmarkt einiges erspart geblieben, wenn die Zinspolitik der Fed restriktiver gewesen wäre. Von Juni 2003 bis Juni 2004 lag ihr Schlüsselzins bei einem Prozent. Europäische Notenbanker hatten die Fed damals heftig kritisiert, die US-Verbraucher in die Schuldenaufnahme zu treiben. Das Problem sei die Unzulänglichkeit der volkswirtschaftlichen Daten gewesen, betonte Fisher. Es habe sich erst später herausgestellt, dass die Inflation tatsächlich höher gewesen sei als zum Zeitpunkt der Zinsentscheidungen ausgewiesen. „Hätten wir damals die korrekten Zahlen gehabt, hätten wir die Zinsen wahrscheinlich nicht so lange so niedrig gehalten“, sagte Fisher. „Aber im Nachhinein ist man immer klüger.“ Zurzeit sieht der Zentralbanker in den USA einen deutlich geringeren Inflationsdruck als noch vor sechs Monaten. Dank der niedrigeren Energiepreise redeten die Unternehmer nicht mehr davon, ihre gestiegenen Kosten in die Preise zu überwälzen. Da die Wirtschaft fast vollbeschäftigt sei, zeige sich zwar in manchen Bereichen Lohnkostendruck. Die Unternehmer seien aber dabei, bei ihrer Preissetzung die Schwäche des Immobilienmarktes und eine mögliche Abkühlung der Wirtschaft einzukalkulieren. Die Fed versucht nach Fishers Worten derzeit einzuschätzen, bis wann die Zinserhöhungen von einem auf 5,25 Prozent voll auf die Wirtschaft durchgeschlagen. „Wir kennen die Wirkungsverzögerung nicht. Sie wird von so vielen Dingen, einschließlich der Globalisierung, beeinflusst“, erklärte er. Persönlich sei er mit dem aktuellen Zinsniveau „zufrieden“. Die US-Notenbankzinsen von derzeit 5,25 Prozent hält er für „in etwa richtig“. Sollte es aber erforderlich werden, die Zinsen weiter anzuheben, sei er mit von der Partie: „Wenn ich mich irre, dann lieber in die Richtung, dass wir die Inflation bekämpfen – wegen des großen Schadens, den sie anrichtet.“ Die inverse US-Zinsstruktur, bei der kurzfristige Anleihen mehr Rendite abwerfen als langfristige, ist für Fisher in erster Linie Ausdruck des Vertrauens in die Stabilitätsorientierung der Fed. Sollte sich die US-Wirtschaft wider Erwarten deutlich abschwächen, beeinträchtige sie schon wegen ihrer schieren Größe die Weltwirtschaft, erklärte Fisher. Die Produktion allein von Texas sei um ein Viertel größer als die von Indien, bei einer realen texanischen Wachstumsrate von neun Prozent im ersten Halbjahr. Die Produktion Kaliforniens und seiner unmittelbaren Nachbarstaaten übertreffe die von ganz China um knapp 200 Mrd. Dollar. Fisher ist aber zuversichtlich, dass sich die wirtschaftliche Aktivität in den USA durch den Einbruch am Immobilienmarkt nicht weiter abkühlen wird. „Es gibt Gegenkräfte wie die gesunkenen Energiepreise und den Boom bei gewerblichen Immobilien“, sagte der Dallas-Fed-Präsident. Er erwartet, dass die US-Wirtschaft im vierten Quartal wieder stärker wachsen wird als im dritten. Im dritten Quartal lag die Wachstumsrate bei 1,6 Prozent. <!-- ISI_LISTEN_STOP --> |
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Diesen gibt es nicht.
Die Preise und Risiken entwickeln sich dort
in dem riesigen Land ähnlich wie
z.B. zwischen München und einer Stadt in Sachsen-Anhalt.
Z.B. ein Freund in Florida hat immer noch (gestern) ein
Angebot für seine Hütte mit einer riesigen Wertsteigerung
innerhalb von wenigen Jahren und das auf dem Lande,
nicht in den Zentren, wo deutsche Neureiche fast
jeden Preis zahlen.
Grüsse
B.
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Dein Freund hat eine Wertsteigerung über "mehrere Jahre" erzielt, somit hat er noch viele Jahre der Wertsteigerung in seinem Objekt.
Am Bericht aus Posting 113 finde ich bemerkenswert wie sehr die Fed mit ihrer Politik im Dunkeln zu stehen scheint.
Gruß
Permanent
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Bleiben wir jedoch bei der Annahme, dass das
durchschnittliche Preisniveau sinkt.
Folge?
ok., Neubauanträge sinken und sonst?
Zu:
"finde ich bemerkenswert wie sehr die Fed mit ihrer Politik im Dunkeln zu stehen scheint."
Btw., die US-Statistik ist immer sehr ungenau, da man
auch da die Erhebungskosten niedrig hält.
"Wer etwas bestellt, muss es auch bezahlen!"
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Hier nochmal die Kurzfassung:
Die erste Schiene ist die Finanzecke:
Sinkende Hauspreise führen zu Untersicherung bei Mortgages. Hausbauer erhält "Margin-Call". Entweder kann er zahlen (dann hat er weniger für den Konsum) oder nicht, dann kommt es zur Zwangsversteigerung, die die Preise weiter runterdrückt. Die Banken müssen aufgrund der faulen Kredite, Risikovorsorge einstellen, was den Gewinn senkt. Gepaart mit 1 Trillion adjustable Rate mortgages im nächsten Jahr, führt also eine Senkung der Hauspreise zu einem Rückgang des verfügbaren Geldes für den konsum.
Bei einer extrem starken Abschwächung ist nicht auszuschließen, das zunächst kleinere Mortgage-Banken über die Wupper gehen, oder der ein oder andere Hedge-Fund, der sich auf Credit-Default-Swaps spezialisiert hat. Worst-Case bei so einem Credit-Crunch wäre dann ein Bankrott von einer großen Adresse (Faennie Mae, Wachovia, etc.).
Die zweite Schiene ist, wie Du selbst geschrieben hast, die Baukonjunktur selbst. Mehr Arbeitslose, weniger Umsätze und Gewinne bei den Homebuildern und Home-Retailern, die im S&P hohes Gewicht haben (Home-Depot, Lowes, Toll Brothers, etc.).
Die dritte Schiene sind die "Zweitrundeneffekte". Hausbauer konsumieren weniger. Also geht es auch den Konsumgüteherstellern schlechter. Mehr Arbeitslose im Bausektor konsumieren ebenfalls weniger mit den gleichen Auswirkungen auf Konsum, etc.
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aber die von Dir oben geschilderten Hypothesen
stehen auf argumentativ wackeligen Beinen.
Z.B.: Erhält der Realkreditnehmer in den USA wirklich
einen Margin-Call, wenn er den Kapitaldienst
weiterhin bedient?
Hat der Realkreditgeber - auch in Deutschland -
in der Praxis daran überhaupt ein Interesse?
Nur ein Beispiel zu Eurem Worst-Case-Szenario.
Grüsse
B.
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Babes in Bear Land
By Chris Isidore
CNNMoney.com
A financial planner who had never seen stock prices lose value probably isn't the best place to turn for investment advice. But many Americans are taking just that kind of a flyer when it comes to their most valuable investment -- their home.
Just more than half of members of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) had four years or less of experience in a 2005 survey -- which means they came into this year's real estate downturn knowing nothing but boom times.
Home sales set record after record from 2001 through 2005, as prices rose to record levels as well. But the pace of sales is off 14 percent so far this year and the year-over-year change in existing home prices has fallen in the past two monthly reports from NAR.
Go to CNNMoney.com to view the slideshow.
tear-downs
That's the first time there has been a decline in that key price measure in 11 years -- not even one in three Realtors today was around back then.
Buyers and sellers are negotiating this rapidly changing market with the advice and guidance of agents who may not be terribly familiar with the current landscape.
"We've picked up 400,000 to 500,000 new agents, and having people in the field not used to cycles is not going to help smooth out this down cycle," said Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies. "Is it the top of my worries about what's going on? No. But the point (about inexperience) is well taken."
Walter Molony, spokesman for NAR, said the number of Realtors with relatively short tenures likely overstates the percentage of sales that they're handling. Those new to the business might be involved in only a couple of sales a year, while the more veteran agents handle a much greater percentage of sales than their numbers would suggest.
For example, Molony said that while the trade group's survey shows 37 percent of Realtors having two years of experience or less, the median earnings for that group is only $13,000.
"The way people become successful is word of mouth referrals and repeat business," said Molony. "It's really tough, even in the boom market, to start out in this industry."
The number of those working in real estate has continued to grow this year. In its most recent reading, for September, the Labor Department said there were 1.5 million people in the business, down 0.4 percent from the record high in June but still 22,700 ahead of a year ago.
"We've found in the past there's about an 18-month lag until there's a downturn in membership," said Molony.
The roughly 50 percent increase in median home prices since 2000 makes the job much more attractive compared to other professions which have seen modest increases in compensation, said William Wheaton, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Center for Real Estate.
"If you're able to make $100,000 selling a house rather than $50,000 everyone and their cousin wants to be a broker," he said. "All that demand to be brokers is caused by the fact that the commission structure is fixed. Commissions should be plummeting from 6 to 4 to 2 percent because it's not."
But even without commissions falling, there is a squeeze on real estate firms' profits. Real estate brokerage holding company, Realogy, the firm whose brands include Century 21 and Coldwell Banker, reported last week that its third quarter earnings were down 42 percent before special items from a year earlier.
Still, despite the squeeze in real estate and the low pay for agents-come-lately, Wheaton and Retsinas said they don't think that inexperienced Realtors will cause prices to fall more sharply than they otherwise would. Retsinas said that home sellers might be reluctant to take an agent's suggestion to drop a price.
"There's a concept of sticky prices," he said. "People selling existing homes, unless they're forced to sell, are reluctant to lower the price below what they think is appropriate."
But Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research and an economist who has long argued that current prices are overvalued and due for a severe correction, says that inexperienced agents could give bad advice to buyers, encouraging them to pay more than a property is worth in a market undergoing a correction or slump.
"From a seller side, you want a Realtor to get the best possible price, but most buyers also had a Realtor who helped to convince them it was a good deal," said Baker. "If you're led to believe housing prices are only going to be higher, you might be convinced to overpay."
Baker said there's an inherent conflict of interest that comes into play even more in a down real estate market between the buyer's agent and the buyer.
"And in the end, the (buyer's agent) wants a sale," he said. "Since they're paid on commission, they want you buy a place and pay as much as possible for it, not walk away because of a weakening market."
But Molony and Wheaton said to be successful, a real estate agent needs to have a realistic view of the market, and that helps to protect both the buyers and the sellers.
"Realtors are out there encouraging sellers to cut listing prices. It's apparent our members have been largely successful in this," said Molony.
"We don't have evidence that the more seasoned ones advise sellers differently than the less seasoned one," Wheaton added.
The slump in sales is also hitting major home builders, which have been reporting sharply reduced earnings and sales outlooks, as the number canceled orders for new homes rises. The latest builder to do so, Toll Brothers, warned Tuesday that there was no end in sight to the current housing downturn in sight. The two largest home builders, Pulte Home and Centex, reported reduced earnings and guidance last month.
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Wenn nicht, muß er seine Risikovorsorge erhöhen, denn der Kredit, der bei einem Haupreis von 200T $ abgeschlossen wurde, ist bei einem momentanen Preis von 180T $ tendenziell unterbesichert.
Daß es wirklich zu mehr Zwangsversteigerungen kommt (lt. Realtytrac dieses Jahr schon knapp über eine Million, letztes Jahr gesamt ca. 880T), zeigt, daß es momentan wirklich nicht so problemlos läuft.
Die lokalen Unterschiede stellen meiner Meinung nach sogar eine Erhöhung der Problematik dar, da insbesondere kleine Mortgage-Banken oft nur in einem lokalen Markt (z.B. einem Staat)aktiv sind und damit auch stark von einem lokalen Einbruch betroffen sind.
Wie gesagt, noch ist es relativ unwahrscheinlich, daß der Big Bang kommt, aber das Risiko hat sich in den letzen Monaten stark erhöht. Heute nachmittag wissen wir mehr, wenn die Zahlen zu den Existing Home Sales für Oktober veröffentlicht werden.
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Langfristig wird sich der US Markt wieder bereinigen, alleine die steigenden Bevölkerungszahlen werden hier hilfreich sein.
Gruß
Permanent
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Im Realkreditgeschäft in den USA und auch
bei uns passiert i.d.R. gar nichts, wenn
der Darlehensnehmer immer seinen Kredit bedient.
Selbst wenn er ein- bis dreimal nicht zahlt,
gibt es im allg. nur Mahnungen.
Auch dann stehen der Bank noch einige Instrumente
zur Verfügung, um eine Zwangsversteigerung abzuwenden.
Eine Zwangsversteigerung passiert nicht von heute
auf morgen.
Vergiss den theoretischen Müll mit dem Margin-Call.
Praxis!
Ich finde aber sicher noch andere Ungereimtheiten
in den obigen Argumentationsketten.
Leider, kaum Zeit.
Grüsse
B.
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In den USA gab es aber durch den Hauspreisboom einen großen Teil von Interest-Only (die schlimmste Ausprägung) oder Low-Amortisation Kontrakten; diese müssen, wenn die Bank auch nur über ein rudimentäres Risikomanagement verfügt, bei fallenden Hauspreisen neu bewertet werden. Was folglich zur Erhöhung der Risikovorsorge führt. Oder man verlangt vom Kreditnehmer, daß er nun mit einer Tilgung beginnt; das habe ich mit Margin-Call gmeint.
Die Hausmarktzahlen sind übrigens wie erwartet schwach ausgefallen:
Die September-Zahlen wurden wie erwartet nach unten korrigiert, was auf einen weiter bestehenden Trend hinweist. Die Oktober-Zahl 6,24 wird auch nach unten revidiert werden. (s. dazu Posting #100 in diesem Thread )Die Inventories sind die höchsten seit 13 Jahren. Preise weiter runter. Von einer Belebung kann imho keine Rede sein.
Oct. existing-home inventory 7.4 months, 13-year high
U.S. existing-home sales down 11.5% year-over-year
U.S. Oct. existing home median sales price down 3.5% y-o-y
U.S. Oct. existing-home sales rise 0.5% to 6.24 mln
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in welcher Bedeutung (Volumen)?
Dazu (bekannt?):
http://www.mtgprofessor.com/Tutorials2/menu%20of%20tutorials.htm
http://www.mtgprofessor.com/Tutorials2/Interest_Only.htm
Grüsse
B.