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My Analysis of Growth Potential for TransEnterix, Inc.
My analysis of this stock is based on knowledge of the FDA regulatory process for devices, which is different than for drugs, and the potential this company has for building a lasting, if not dominant, presence in the health care market. While I do not personally know anyone in the company, I am relatively local to it.
The current suite of systems offered by TransEnterix is impressive. Providing essentially the same level of quality – or better – as the current DaVinci device at a fraction of the cost, the SurgiBot pricepoint is suddenly within reach of hundreds of smaller clinics across the world, clinics unable to provide such surgical services in the past. More, the telemedicine component of this device allows a given clinic to employ skilled surgeons outside of their local area to perform the surgeries.
But it goes beyond that. When hospital and clinic administrators are looking at a major capital purchase like this, the cost/benefit analysis better weigh heavily in the “benefit” category. An expensive machine that goes unused is a waste. A machine that can be used a lot (and charged for a lot) is a winner. If you can get $2m worth of surgeries out of a $500k machine, that’s a win. That’s why everybody gets CAT scans now, when they used to use them only in serious cases. Machine ain’t making money if there isn’t a patient in it.
But wait, there’s more! The beauty of the this system is that a small clinic can not only employ a non-local doc, thanks to telemedicine you aren’t necessarily even restricted by time zones. Which means that the machine you have, which never gets tired, can be employed even after regular surgery hours by hiring a surgeon in another time zone. Not only does the machine get used a lot, it can be used three shifts a day if there is a need. And this isn’t a mere diagnostic machine, like a CAT, it actually fixes stuff.
Currently the DaVinci pricepoint is out of range of many medium-sized and smaller clinics, but the Surgibot has a huge possibility of being a profit center for hospital administrators. People like to have that sort of thing in their community. It raises the profile of the institution and is a relatively cheap and easy way to do so. It’s versatile: not enough bladder operations on the schedule to keep it busy? Change the tools and do a couple of gastric by-passes. Once it is approved for reconstructive and plastic surgery the sky is the limit. That means it is sexy, in that it is a state-of-the-art, relatively cheap, and showcases an institution’s capabilities.
Impressive, but that’s just the initial step. Within a decade the accumulated records of thousands of surgeries will be accessed by surgical AIs through the device, with humans only overseeing the process for issues. The robot will be doing the vast majority of the surgery without human control. All of a sudden any doctor’s office that can get a hold of one of these has the surgical capabilities of a major hospital.
This also has the potential to reduce human error liability in malpractice cases. Tell me that’s not sexy.
Whether or not it will get full FDA approval this week, as expected, or not, worst-case scenario is that they get delayed by bureaucracy or the need for additional data on some arcane point. But I have every confidence that it will be approved in the near future regardless. And once the back-end benefits to purchasing the system dawn on the hospital administrators who make those purchasing decisions, I anticipate a hefty backlog of orders. This will be a case of “machine envy” in a big way.
Inside of five years, if your facility doesn’t have a Surgibot or equivalent it will lose points on accreditation and quality marks.
I expect some large orders from military sources, too, as these have huge potential to reduce the permanent effects of traumatic injury without keeping valuable surgeons in a dangerous war zone. Coupled with 3D printing technology, holographic display interfaces, laser technology, nanotechnology, and sophisticated access to medical data, this has all the hallmarks of becoming the centerpiece for streamlined surgical procedures everywhere in the first world in the next decade. And with every new iteration of design and software upgrade, it’s like getting a DLC that increases the value of your device.
I hear a lot of “yes, buts” out there, based on the data available, and I understand your skepticism. But based on my personal understanding of this product and this company, I can easily see the stock hitting $20+ within a year. $100 within two. Sales figures might not reflect that off the bat, due to the long process involved in any institution (much less a publicly funded or government-owned institution) making a purchasing decision, and then petitioning and allocating funds for it. Expect about 2 years from FDA approval to truly stupefying institutional sales, but barring disaster, they will come. The private hospitals and clinics that can move faster will be first in line, but after that I anticipate seeing some much larger orders.
Consider that the US Veteran’s Administration, alone, has over 130 surgical centers. If they provided just one Surgibot for each, that would be an order of $65m. Plus extras. One client. Now imagine a hospital ship in a disaster area with two dozen of these on board. Now imagine a high-end vanity clinic in Costa Rica offering low-cost medical tourism employing the best surgeons in the world...regardless of where they are in the world. Once you understand the potential and the explosive growth possibilities, your mind gets boggled.
There’s a lot more, but that’s the gist of it. If you bought, be glad you got it under $20 and hang on. I am. Mr. Handy is going to med school, and you were lucky enough to get a choice piece of the action. Just my opinion, YMMV, etc.
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