Gestern Wellenweiser Verkauf bis -6,6% negatives sentiment Agrar "überlaufn" Parabolischer Anstieg etc etc MOS, alle ag verlieren
ABER
die Optionen in den US speziell der May 230 Vertrag wurde beim Fall von POT massiv gekauft...;-)
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Potash Corp.: Examining the Recent Options Boom
Potash Corp. (POT: View sentiment for POTsentiment, chart, options) has seen some heavy option activity in today's trading, as investors respond to the company's removal from Goldman Sachs' America's conviction buy list. The broker attributed axing POT from the list to the absence of fresh catalysts to drive the stock higher. Goldman Sachs reps revealed that all of the previously forecasted events to drive buying incentive have already occurred, including new contracts with Chinese and Indian customers, a global spike in potash prices, and a jump in earnings-per-share estimates. However, the brokerage maintained its "buy" rating on POT, stating potash and phosphate prices should continue to expand in the long-term.
Call Buyers Step Up Their Game
As previously mentioned, POT followers in the options arena have responded to the news with a vengeance, especially in the May 200 – 220 strikes. More specifically, in late afternoon trading, the POT May 200 call (PYP EX) has seen 4,771 contracts cross the tape on open interest of fewer than 6,000. Meanwhile, the May 210 call (PJN EB) has seen more than 5,100 contracts cross the tape on open interest of 8,254, while the May 230 call (PJN EF) boasts more than 6,600 contracts trade on open interest of 8,168. However, the most popular call by far is the May 220 (PJN ED), boasting more than 16,200 contracts cross on roughly 20,000 in open interest.
Delving further into the heavy activity at the May 220 call, I didn't notice any significantly large amounts of contracts crossing the tape, indicating it may be a collection of smaller trades.
Despite today's influx of call activity, it seems near-term options speculators have actually become increasingly skeptical toward POT over the last few days. The stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) – measuring options slated to expire within 3 months – has risen from 0.72 (in the 12th annual percentile) on April 21, to the most recent reading of 0.78 (in the 32nd annual percentile). In other words, while near-term options players have been more bullishly aligned only 32% of the time during the past 52 weeks, the optimism is less palpable than just last week
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/...px?ID=84291&obspage=1
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