Uralkali today has become the market leader, and grew up on the MICEX by 20%. Analysts note that the loading capacity of the fertilizer proizvodeteley growing.
In February 2009, Uralkali produced 91 thousand tons of potash fertilizer, which is 18% more than in January, but two and a half times less than in February 2008, Volume sylvinite production was 123.5 thousand tons, that 3,2 times more than in January, but 2.2 times less than the g-to-g.
«Although the production volume is still relatively small, the data for February were positive for both companies. We expect the potash market begins to recover in the 2 quarter of 2009, and the upward trend in production confirm our forecasts », - said Kirill RCB.ru Tachennikov of the« Discovery ».
«We believe that the contracts for the supply of potash fertilizers in China, which are expected to be signed by the producers of fertilizers (including Russian Uralkaliy and Silvinit) in March-April, will be the main indicator of medium-term prospects of the market of potash fertilizers in general and Russian producers in particular . We expect that the market of potash fertilizers can liven in the II quarter of 2009, but he is unlikely to fully recover before 2010 », - noted Anna Kupriyanova of« Uralsib ».
She believes that in the I quarter of 2009, the average load capacity of Russian producers of potash fertilizer of 25%, in II quarter could increase to 50%, while in the II half of 2009 to 80-90%, the volume of production Uralkali in 2009 could reach 3.9 million tons and 4.2 million tons sylvinite
«Overall, this corresponds to the level laid down in our model. Therefore, we will not revise our models of companies in 2009, before the contracts are signed for the supply of fertilizer in China in April and March 2009, we affirm the recommendation of HOLD shares Uralkaliy (URKA - HOLD) and buy shares sylvinite (SILV - BUY ) », - noted Kupriyanova
Even after almost a 100% growth last month, shares Uralkali and sylvinite continue to be severely underestimated in the values of the coefficient of EV / EBITDA 09 at 5,0 and 2,9 respectively. «In light of both short overheated stock at this time, we recommend you take a break and start buying securities Uralkali and sylvinite to more attractive levels», - said Tachennikov.
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