: Förder KÜRZUNG (!) im März ????????? Bearpaw 18.02.08 18:07
Ich beobachte die OPEC politik nun schon seit paar Järchen - aber an der heutigen meldung über Yahoo, habe ich zu grübeln:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080218/oil_prices.html dort steht:
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has trimmed its forecasts for demand this year by 100,000 barrels a day, but it has also hinted it may cut production IF global supplies of crude CONTINUE TO RISE (!!!), according to Dow Jones Newswires.
Meine möglichen Interpretationen:
1) ein Fehler von Yahoo (man wollte schreiben: IF global supplies of crude CONTINUE TO FALL - passt aber nicht, weil das angebot sowieso nicht der Nachfrage nachkommt und die OECD Öllager ohnehin auf einem 5 Jahres tief sind - für Mitte Februar)
2) die OPEC hat Probleme ihre Förderrate beizubehalten (= wäre Ölpea
k gleichzusetzen !)
3) Die OPEC will NOCH höhere Preise erzielen (vor 2 wochen noch hatte man gemeint: sollte der Ölpreis auf 85/80 usd fallen - wird man anfang märz KÜRZEN.) jetzt ist der Ölpreis auf 96 USD gestiegen und die OPEC will trotzdem kürzen - mit einer derart fadenscheinigen ausrede...? mmmhh das passt alles nicht zusammen.
Zudem sollte nochmal erwähnt sein, dass die Nachfrage ab März überlicherweise spürbar ansteigt (errinnert ihr Euch: "pünklich zur Oster-hauptverkehrszeit steigen die Ölpreise....). In den USA ist das die Driving season.
man muss kein Prophet mehr sein, wenn man vorraussagt, dass der Ölpreis März wohl die 100 USD überschritten haben wird.
die obige OPEC news auf yahoo lässt mich aber weiter grübeln. Werde nach anderen Erklärungen suchen. Nennt mich paranoid, aber eine der möglichkeiten ist: die OPEC kann gar nicht mehr erhöhen...(und vielleicht nicht einmal die aktuelle förderung halten ?)
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Oil Prices Up on Possible OPEC Cut
Monday February 18, 9:58 am ET
By Pablo Gorondi, Associated Press Writer
Oil Prices Up Slightly on Possible OPEC Cuts Amid Forecasts for Slower Demand Growth
Oil prices rose slightly Monday, gaining after further hints that OPEC may cut production if global supplies continue to rise.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has trimmed its forecasts for demand this year by 100,000 barrels a day, but it has also hinted it may cut production if global supplies of crude continue to rise, according to Dow Jones Newswires.
Several reports in recent days, though, have suggested that global economic conditions may not be deteriorating as quickly as feared. The U.S. Federal Reserve said Friday that industrial production in the world's largest economy rose last month in line with expectations. On the other hand, the Energy Department, the International Energy Agency and now OPEC have all cut demand forecasts.
OPEC is scheduled to meet March 5 in Vienna to review its production policy.
Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose 40 cents to $95.90 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe.
Trading volumes on Monday were thinner than usual due to the President's Day holiday in the United States and the start in London of the International Petroleum Week, a reputed oil industry conference.
The Nymex crude contract rose 4 cents Friday to settle at $95.50 a barrel after alternating frequently between positive and negative territory. Oil prices have risen more than $8 in little more than a week.
On Sunday, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez soothed American motorists, saying that Venezuela is not preparing to cut off oil shipments to the United States.
The socialist leader rattled oil markets when he threatened a week ago to halt shipments to the United States in retaliation for Exxon Mobil Corp.'s success in persuading courts in the U.S. and Europe to freeze Venezuelan assets.
"We don't have plans to stop sending oil to the United States," Chavez said Sunday during a visit to heavy-oil projects in Venezuela's petroleum-rich Orinoco River basin that were nationalized last year.
But he added that Venezuela could cut off supplies to the United States if Washington "attacks Venezuela or tries to harm us." Chavez has repeatedly warned against a possible U.S. invasion to seize control of Venezuela's immense oil reserves. U.S. officials have denied any such plan exists.
The United States relies on Venezuela for about 10 percent of its oil imports.
Chavez's administration is locked in a legal battle with Exxon Mobil over compensation for the nationalization of one of four heavy-oil projects in the Orinoco River basin.
Exxon Mobil is seeking to freeze billions of dollars in Venezuelan assets in the United States and Europe to guarantee a payoff if it wins a decision by an international arbitration panel.
Last month, a British court injunction ordered the temporary freezing of up to $12 billion in assets of state-run Petroleos de Venezuela SA, or PDVSA.
Traders also were keeping an eye on developments in Nigeria, where militants responsible for attacks on the country's oil infrastructure asked U.S. President George W. Bush to mediate in the long-lasting crisis.
The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, began intensifying its attacks two years ago, kidnapping foreign workers and sabotaging oil infrastructure.
As a result of the conflict, Nigeria, Africa's biggest producer and a major supplier of crude to America, has seen its output fall by about 20 percent, helping send oil prices higher.
In London, Brent crude for April delivery rose 33 cents to $94.96 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
Heating oil futures rose 0.51 cent to $2.652 a gallon while gasoline prices gained 0.42 cent to $2.498 a gallon. Natural gas futures rose 17.9 cents to $8.839 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Associated Press Writer Thomas Hogue in Bangkok, Thailand, contributed to this report.
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