http://web.mit.edu/ssp/Publications/working_papers/wp_06-1.pdf
sehr ausführliche Studie....Natanz is by far both the most difficult and most important target to destroy. The main enrichment facility apparently has two large (25,000-32,000 m2) halls located 8 to 23 m underground and protected by multiple layers of concrete.41 The combination of large size and target hardening mean that only a very robust strike could hope to destroy or at least render unusable the centrifuges.
In order to ensure penetration of a target with high levels of hardening, one technique is to use LGBs targeted on the same aimpoint but separated slightly in release time to “burrow” into the target. Essentially one bomb hits the crater made by the previous weapon, a technique contemplated by the U.S. Air Force in the first Gulf War.42 This takes advantage of the extremely high accuracy of LGBs in combination with a penetrating warhead. The IAF appears to have purchased penetrating LGBs with this technique in mind. Gen. Eitan Ben-Elyahu, former commander of the IAF and a participant in the Osirak strike, commented on this method of attacking hardened facilities in Jane’s Defense Weekly: “Even if one bomb would not suffice to penetrate, we could guide other bombs directly to the hole created by the previous ones and eventually destroy any target.”For such a heavily hardened target, the BLU-113 5000-lb penetrators would be the most likely weapon to use. An individual weapon capable of penetrating up to 6 m of concrete or 30 m of earth, as noted earlier, might be sufficient to penetrate the protective earth and concrete over the Natanz facility, but two properly sequenced almost certainly would. The probability of two LGBs aimed at the same point hitting essentially one on top of the other is roughly 0.5, assuming a 0.6 probability of a direct hit for each weapon, a 3 meter radius crater, a 3 meter CEP for “near misses” and 0.9 reliability for each bomb.44
The question then is how many BLU-113s penetrating fully into the centrifuge halls would be needed to ensure destruction? Each BLU-113 contains 306 kg of Tritonal explosive, which would yield peak overpressures of 10 pounds per square inch (psi) at a distance of over 20 m in a free air burst. This level of overpressure is sufficient to destroy most structures and would presumably be more than sufficient to ruin centrifuges....This is an extreme case and would probably result in massive overkill....In the more than two decades since the Osirak strike, the IAF’s deep strike capability has improved dramatically. This has increased the range and lethality of Israel’s “Long Arm.” An early display of this growing capability was the 1985 IAF strike on the Palestinian Liberation Organizations headquarters in Tunis, a more than 4000 km round trip.52
In terms of aircraft, Israeli deep strike capability remains centered on F-15s and F-16s. However, Israel now fields 25 of the F-15I Ra’am and approximately 25-50 of the F-16I Soufa, both of which are specially configured for the deep strike mission.53 The F-15I is the Israeli version of the F-15E Strike Eagle, an extremely capable variant of the F-15 which has been modified to optimize its air-to-ground capability. The F-15I is equipped with conformal fuel tanks (CFTs), which combined with external drop tanks could likely give it an unrefueled combat radius of roughly 1700 kilometers while carrying four 2000-lb bombs.54 These bombs, discussed in more detail below, can be targeted using either the LANTIRN or LITENING targeting pod. In addition, the F-15I has a built in electronic warfare and countermeasures system and can carry AIM-120 AMRAAM , AIM-9 Sidewinder, and Python 4 missiles for air-to-air combat......In addition to these dedicated deep strike aircraft, Israel also has a large fleet of F-16s which could potentially be retrofitted with the F-16I’s CFTs. In particular, Israel has approximately 50 F-16D aircraft which have a “dorsal spine” modification. This dorsal spine is a fairing extending from the rear of the cockpit to the vertical stabilizer. It apparently houses a significant anti-radar Wild Weasel system, self-protection jamming, as well as other specialized electronics. These aircraft, if retrofitted with CFTs, could accompany the deep strike aircraft and provide significant suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD) capability.
The IAF also has over 40 F-15A and F-15C aircraft which could be used as fighter escorts for the strike and SEAD aircraft.....
Both the inventory and capability of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) remains qualitatively poor. Maintenance and training are both insufficient to produce an air force capable of competing with a first class air force such as the IAF.
detailliert dargelegt incl Raketenabwehr
In the case of Natanz, twelve F-15Is would have to arrive at the target complex if each carried two BLU-113s (one on each set of CFT hardpoints) in addition to external fuel tanks and air-to-air missiles. However, it is unclear if this would be an effective loadout.73 If each carried only one BLU-113 (along the centerline) in addition to external fuel tanks and air-to-air missiles, then twenty-four would have to arrive at the target complex. Note that if the F-15Is carried only one BLU-113, they could potentially carry up to four additional BLU-109s on the CFT hardpoints.74
Esfahan and Arak require less aircraft to deliver the requisite ordnance. In the case of Esfahan, six F-16Is would have to arrive at the target complex if each carried two BLU-109s in addition to external fuel tanks and air-to-air missiles. For Arak, only five F-16Is would have to reach the target......
it does seem to indicate that the IAF, after years of modernization, now possesses the capability to destroy even well-hardened targets in Iran with some degree of confidence. The operation appears to be no more risky than the earlier attack on Osirak and provides at least as much benefit in terms of delaying Iranian development of nuclear weapons. This benefit might not be worth the operational risk and political cost. Nonetheless, this analysis demonstrates that Israeli leaders have access to the technical capability to carry out the attack.
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