Ausschnitte aus 37 Seiten Analyse
With 90-day testing of the Kiyaktysai discovery well about to commence, a successful appraisal well recently completed and a further appraisal well planned for 3Q13, the initial production and resource potential of Kiyaktysai (pre-drill estimate: 10-15 mmbbls) will soon be established.
Furthermore, the company has identified some 66 prospects and leads, post-salt and pre-salt – in aggregate, a gross unrisked mean recoverable resource of 1.5 bnboe.
With the exploration phase of the Zharkamys West contract now extended until August 2015, Condor Petroleum will continue with its phased exploration strategy, targeting deeper, larger post-salt and pre-salt prospects within its portfolio – although risk exposure to the latter is likely to be prudently reduced via farm-outs.
High Case' Risked NAV - C$3.08/share
Our 'high case' risked NAV differs from the 'base case' risked NAV thus:
2P Reserves/Assets Under Development Kiyaktysai - we assume the 'high-end' pre-drill estimate of 15 mmbbls;
Exploration Upside - Includes Broader Phase 2 & Phase 3 Prospectivity
We include all six Phase 2 Primary Basin prospects, estimated to hold ca. 200 mmbbls on an aggregate unrisked basis - all risked at 1 in 5.
We assume that, as with Phase 2 prospects, that Phase 3 prospects are 2/3 oil, 1/3 associated gas. Attaching no value to the gas, we now include all 14 identified Phase 3 prospects - 690 mmbbls on an unrisked basis - risked at 1 in 10.
We have also assumed that, consistent with management's stated strategy, that Phase 3 prospects are farmed out to lower the company's financial and technical exposure to risk - we assume that Condor Petroleum retains a 50% interest in these deep, pre-salt prospects.
All in all, the risked exploration upside in our 'high case' risked NAV amounts to 74 mmbbls.
Net of cash, which includes the prospective sale proceeds for the Marsel block, we derive a 'high case' risked NAV of C$3.08/share.
Tax Pools Add Over $3.60/bbl Or 35% To Our Reserve/Resource Valuations
Zharkamys West holds a corporate tax pool and loss carry-forward of $90.7 million at year-end 2012, and, as of March 31st 2013, a capex pool of $97.5 million.
We have applied these tax and capex pools to minimise both corporate tax and excess profits tax (EPT) - the result being to significantly increase the 'in the ground' value of its 2P reserves and development assets, by over 35% or $3.60/bbl, from $10.26/bbl to $13.87/bbl.
We do not forecast a funding requirement for 2014, based on: Receipt of Marsel funds by year-end 2013; Mid-2014 commerciality for Shoba/Taskuduk; Ongoing test/trail production at Kiyaktysai; and Management's early indications of a $30 - 40 million capital program for 2014.
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