Whereto For Rare Earth Prices?
BY GREG PEEL - 06/02/2012
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Whereto For Rare Earth Prices? FNArena News - February 06 2012 By Greg Peel It was arguably the Big News story in the resources sector last week. Rare earth hopeful Lynas ((LYC)) had been waiting in frustration for a seemingly interminable period to learn whether or not the Malaysian government would approve its proposed Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) for the processing of the company's Australian-based rare earth element (REE) deposits. Initial approval was finally granted last week, subject to a long term environmental bond to be contributed to by Lynas. It was the green light the market had been waiting for. Lynas shares duly surged on the day, although there was little in the way of forecast changes from stock analysts given they had mostly assumed approval would eventually be granted. At the end of the day, the value of the stock is significantly dependent on the price achievable for its processed REEs and those prices have proven highly volatile. Goldman Sachs, for example, has maintained its $1.90 twelve-month share price target having offset the LAMP approval value against lower REE price assumptions. After a period of spectacular gains, REE prices have been falling for the past six months. The fall in REE prices was recently addressed by FNArena in December's Rare Earths Overcooked. The bottom line is that despite particular REEs being virtually unsubstitutable in the manufacture of high growth items such as smart phone high definition displays, there is a price beyond which manufacturers simply have to concede defeat. Or at least rethink their approach. After soaring exponentially for the last three years, the prices of the various REEs found their peaks in the supply-demand equation six months ago and duly began to rush backwards. The great REE share price bubble burst as a result, or at the very least a lot of air rushed out as blind faith was exposed. The difficulty is that the market for REEs is not a “free” one. High global demand for REEs is a recent phenomenon driven by technological advances bringing us everything from iPhones to electric cars and wind turbines in what seems a very short space of time. Getting an REE mine and processing facility up to speed is very costly and time consuming and the West has lagged well behind in REE development despite REE resources being spread around the globe. China has not lagged however, currently producing 95% of the world's REE concentrates from only 36% of the world's known resources. The Chinese did not foresee the iPhone or “green” technologies, they were just happy to sell REEs to Japan for televisions and so forth and the rest of the world was happy to let them. Lynas is one of only two global miners (Molycorp) even close to first commercial production of highly sought after REEs, particularly the more scarce heavy REEs, beyond the limited amounts currently being produced outside China. The field is well behind. China thus has a window of opportunity to exploit its near-monopoly and its not going to muck around. Beijing has duly imposed quotas on the export of Chinese REEs to ensure prices outside of China remain elevated well beyond domestic prices while at the same time clamping down on unlicensed or environmentally poor domestic operations. It would seem that for some time yet REE prices will be supported at significant levels, if not earlier peak levels. Or will they? Goldman Sachs is not so sure. Goldman Sachs Australia does not attempt price forecasting for the entire range of REE and associated elements. With Lynas and Alkane Resources ((ALK)) the only two local REE stocks under coverage the analysts forecast basket prices for each based on the make-up and spread of those companies' resources. Goldmans has now reduced its basket price forecasts by 17% for 2012 and 24% for 2013 not only as a result of price falls over the past three months but also on an assumption that global REE supply will not have ended in deficit last year as widely expected but actually in a notional surplus, with 2012 to show a moderate deficit. REE prices have been falling in recent months to degrees determined by relative abundance and substitutability, Goldmans notes. Light REEs lanthanum and cerium are the most abundant of the group and their prices remain in steep decline. Light but less abundant and less substitutable praseodymium and neodymium have seen shallower price falls while the scarcer heavy REEs such as dysprosium, europium and terbium have seen sharp declines but not by as much as the light REEs. Dysprosium (ex-China) is down 50% from its July peak, for example, while cerium is down 73%, Goldmans notes. As aforementioned, soaring REE prices ultimately led consumers to rethink their consumption however possible, thus triggering price turnarounds. Goldmans cites the example Japanese company Showa Denko's consumption of cerium oxide, which is used as a high level polishing agent for display screens. Price rises have meant that the amount of cerium oxide consumed by the company in 2010 has been halved in 2011 by working with lower quantities and re-using the material up to five times. It's this sort of response which has Goldmans reassessing assumed demand levels ahead. Goldmans also questions the effectiveness of Beijing's export quotas and clamp-down on unlicensed producers. Discrepancies between export amounts suggested by export quotas and amounts actually arriving at destinations outside China imply both unauthorized export and unauthorized production in the first place. It thus becomes potentially dangerous for stock analysts to assume quota-based supply-side numbers in their price forecasting. There is also a small matter of the World Trade Organization, of which China is a member. The WTO last month rejected Beijing's appeal on a ruling against Chinese quotas on everything from bauxite to zinc. There has been no specific mention of REEs, but one presumes a precedent would apply and Beijing would be forced to modify its tight quotas anyway. All of the above suggests to Goldman Sachs that REE prices are subject to further downside rather than upside as domestic Chinese and ex-China prices begin to converge. That is not to say REE prices will fall back to levels of three years ago when demand was minimal, but investors need be wary that a return to exponentially rising price curves is unlikely. Such a conclusion makes sense, except that Tim Miller of Canadian research house Fraser Mackenzie, having read the Goldmans report, suggests “We believe [the] Goldman analyst does not know what he is talking about”. Miller concurs with Goldmans' expectations of further price falls for light REEs such as lanthanum and cerium but believes prices for heavier neodymium, yttrium, terbium and dysprosium “will be going up significantly”. The CEO of Newmont Mining agrees. Aside from the heavy REEs being subject to only 15% quota control in China, the floods in Thailand last year caused significant disruption to the global high definition display (HDD) industry, notes Miller. HDD inventories have subsequently been drawn down to
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