Thema Eisenerz
Bei dem Abnehmer für Eisenerz, der Stahlindustrie, findet ein Verdrängungswettbewerb statt. Ähnlich wie in der Solarindustrie verlagert sich die Produktion Richtung China.
Während Produzenten wie ThyssenKrupp und Tata (Europa-Division) ihre Produktion gedrosselt haben, steigern chinesische Produzenten ihre Stahlproduktion:
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION STILL NEAR RECORD
Chinese Government data released on Monday showed China's crude steel output rose 2.5% from a year earlier, to
61.234 million tonnes in May. That was also up from 60.575 million tonnes in April. In terms of daily output, the industry
group China Iron and Steel Association said on Friday, that the pace had slowed to an average 1.96 million tonnes over
the May 21-31 period, down nearly 4% from the previous 10 days and from a record daily run of 2.045 million tonnes in
early May. China's strong steel output has sustained its demand for iron ore, with China importing 63.84 million tonnes in
May, up 10.7 percent from April.
Source: Reuters - June, 2012
Wenn man die chinesischen Zahlen allein betrachten würde, bekäme man ein schiefes Bild und wäre möglicherweise sehr bullish für Eisenerz und Kokskohle.
Ein weiteres Problem, das sich auftut, ist, dass die Kredite für Stahlhersteller beschnitten werden.
Chinese regulators have urged banks to tighten credit to steel producers in recent weeks. Reports suggest that stockpiles for other commodities, such as coal and agricultural products, have also been growing in China as demand flags.
Source: China Economic Review 09/06/12
Iron Market Update (June 14, 2012)
Thursday June 14, 2012
By Chad Fraser - Exclusive to Iron Investing News
The price for benchmark iron ore with 62 percent iron content moved up 0.6 percent to $133.10 a tonne on Tuesday, marking its third straight day of gains. The rise came after iron ore slipped to a two-week low of $130.60 last week.
Spot prices also edged up in China, where buyers were paying $125 a tonne for Australian Yandi iron ore fines (58 percent iron). Pilbara fines (61.5 percent iron) were selling for $132 a tonne, also up slightly. China is the world’s largest consumer of iron ore, taking in 60 percent of global production.
The gains come after iron ore prices fell sharply in May as decreasing Chinese demand prompted the country’s steelmakers to slow production. Iron ore is a key component in steelmaking.
In May, China’s steelmakers produced an average of 1.98 million tons of steel a day, down from 2.02 million tons in April.
Even so, steel production was up 2.5 percent in May from a year earlier. Over the first five months of 2012, production increased 2.2 percent from the same period in 2011.
However, there is renewed concern that iron ore prices could again come under pressure on slowing Chinese steel demand. These worries are being fueled by the news that Baoshan Iron and Steel, the third-biggest steelmaker in the world, will cut its selling prices by about 4 percent in July in response to continued weak steel sales.
Charttechnisch ist noch Luft nach unten für Eisenerz und Kokskohle
Langfristig wird China seine Stahlherstellungs-Kapazitäten noch ausbauen:
CHINA APPROVES $23 BILLION IN STEEL PROJECTS
China’s main planning agency has approved $36 billion in new projects, of which 65 percent are in the steel industry,
worth the equivalent of $23 billion. The Baosteel Group, China’s third-biggest mill by output, and Wuhan Iron, the fourthlargest,
have won approval to build $21 billion in new steel plants. China’s top planning authority had delayed Baosteel
and Wuhan’s mills in 2009, citing industry overcapacity. Baosteel’s project in Zhanjiang port, Guangdong province, will
increase its production capacity by 2.3 percent to approximately 53 million tons. The Wuhan mill in Fangchenggang port,
in China’s southwestern region, will add 8.5 million tons of annual capacity, or 22 percent. The plants will not only supply
steel to south China but also cover the markets of southeast Asia.
report from Bloomberg - June, 2012
FAZIT
Kurzfristig könnte es noch ein bisschen holprig werden beim Fe-Preis und Fe-Aktien. Ein Kauf von Eisenerz-Aktien drängt sich noch nicht auf. Sobald ThyssenKrupp und Tata ihre Stahlwerke wieder hochfahren, steigt die Eisenerz-Nachfrage, was sich positiv in der Preisentwicklung für Fe auswirken dürfte.
Die von vielen europäischen Ländern geforderten Konjunkturprogramme könnten sich als das auslösende Element erweisen. Mal sehen, wie lange "Mutti" die Sparverordnungen durchhalten wird.
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