Ich habe mir die Mühe gemacht und bin deinem Hinweis nachgegangen, damit du wieder ruhiger schlafen kannst.
Herr Tönnis schreibt mir:
Hallo Hr. , ich bin mir nicht sicher, ob wir uns bei einem Ihrer Besuche begegnet sind, aber Ihr Interesse an der Technologie freut mich. Der Grund meines Ausscheidens ist, dass mein Vertrag über die Befristung zum 31.12. nicht verlängert wurde. Ich bin auch nicht mehr bei Aixtron beschäftigt.
Scheint so als ob Felix Grawert und er nicht zurechtgekommen sind.
Vielen Dank Baggo! Ich habe absolut nicht gedacht, dass du so weit gehen würdest und ihn direkt sowas fragst? Respekt!!! Nur, da kann ich dir trotzdem (leider) nicht bestätigen, dass die Aussage von ihm mich beruhigen und mein Schlaf verbessen wird. Es gibt für mich viele Gründe warum mein Glaube daran scheitern sollte. Es könnte sein, dass er als Geschäftsführender Manager als Insider angeschaut werden kann und mMn könnte sein, dass er irgendwas ähnliches wie NDA nach seinem Austritt unterschreiben sollte. Also, ich denke, die wahren Gründe werden wir nie erfahren. Was die Wahrheit sein könnte, dass sein Vertrag oder Bestellung als Geschäftsführer bei Apeva wirklich bis 31.12.2019 war. Und was mich noch über die Sache ärgert, dass es nirgendwo öffentlich rauskam, über Bekanntmachung oder ähnliches. Ganz absolut schweigende Aktion von der Seite von Aixtron... Sogar hier:
Kein Wort über Austritt oder Wechsel, nur über Erhöhung des Grundkapitals gegen Bareinlagen von 120.000,00 EUR um 6.500.000,00 EUR auf 6.620.000,00 EUR (wozu???) und dass zwei neue Geschäftsführer bestellt worden sind.
der letzte absatz ist schon interessant. das euro volumen ist auf 6,62 millionen angewachsen. Ich halte die kapitalerhöhung für ein gutes zeichen. das die geschäftsführung ausgewechselt wird, würde ich nicht überbewerten. das kann viele gründe haben. sollte da etwas bei apeva anstehen, in einem etwas grösseren volumen, dann braucht ein unternehmen natürlich auch genug cash bestand. nur so kann ich mir das erklären.
Richtig, es konnten wie baggo-mh angedeutet hat persönliche oder auch gesundheitliche Gründe sein, oder tausend andere? deswegen sofort negativ bewerten möchte ich das nicht. Die Frage ?warum? juckt mich aber trotzdem! ) Zur KE kann ich nichts sagen, da habe ich in diesem Gebiet keine Ahnung. Für mich ist es eher neutral. Kann auch steuerliche Gründe haben, oder hängt mit JV Vertrag zusammen. Aber Info dazu würde mich auch sehr interessieren.
Vielleicht spekulieren einige darauf dass Veeco etwas davon abbekommt.
Wenigstens sollte man erwarten, dass die Hürden bei Ausschreibungen jetzt niedriger sind. Aber würde man selbst Investitionsgüter (ein Haus zum Beispiel) kaufen von einem Handelspartner dem man nicht 100% vertrauen kann.
Oder eine Kredit aufnehmen von einer Bank der man nicht vertraut.
Erhöhung des Grundkapitals gegen Bareinlagen um 6,5 Millionen.
Ich sehe das sogar positiv. Aixtron will künftige OVPD Anlagen (also auch das Gen x pre-production tool) in Korea bauen. Wo die Teile herkommen haben wir nicht gefragt, aber sicherlich zum Teil aus Deutschland und Asien.
Dazu braucht man Kapital was man jetzt hat.
Anderer Ansatz: Vielleicht darf Samsung nur Verträge schließen mit Unternehmen die über eine ausreichende Kapitalisierung verfügen.
I just want to flag some recent broker (bank) actions, while Lampe and Oddo (both Buy, price target 12-12.50) have been discussed here, Barclays also upgraded Aixtron to Buy yesterday with 12.? price target (see link below). The analyst upgraded as part of a broader sector note as part of which he downgraded IQE to hold (stock reacted -9%) as well. I would also flag that he upgraded Aixtron to Buy for the first time since the end of 2017, since when he had a hold rating.
To me that shows 2 points: 1. Sentiment around Aixtron is clearly improving as more and more analysts and investors seem to do the calculation around "what if" Apeva gets/does not get the next order. In my view (and I shared that in the old forum before) both outcomes should be fundamentally positive for our Investment. 2. It proofs our positive view on the stock that 2020/21 will be very interesting years for Aixtron given the end-market developments - always nice to hear some confirmation of ones thesis.
Lastly remember, that if the Chip market overall turns more positive in 2020 after weak 2019, this should help Aixtron's sentiment, given that there has been quite some correlation in the past.
: My thoughts on Rosskata & Kateeva insights
Rosskata, great find on that article!
I read it this morning and would like to highlight a couple of points from the article that I think could indeed be relevant for the potential APEVA decision/order.
1. Reduced Unit cost production. In the article it states that industry sources believe that SEMS won the order because its integrated system lowers the production cost per unit. Remember, that this is also a key argument by APEVA, the initial capex investment is higher but it lowers the production costs per unit significantly, as it uses less of the very expensive substrates that are needed to produce the RGB colours on the glass. So if Samsung is focussed on Unit costs along this entire project, I think the article has positive read for APEVA (at least that is my hope, as a bull).
2. Willingness to embark on new suppliers/systems. I also find it highly interesting, that Samsung is willing to cut cords with existing suppliers/systems to switch to new ones. Note that in the article it states the following about the Samsung-Kateeva relationship: "The industry initially predicted that there would be a higher chance of Kateeva being selected as Samsung Display?s supplier because Kateeva has established a deep relationship with Samsung Display by being the sole supplier of Gen-6 TFE (Thin Film Equipment) for Samsung Display?s A3 plant.". To me (again, as a bull!), this means that for QD-OLED Samsung Display is willing to shake-up existing systems/suppliers and use the best system there is in the market. Transfering this thinking to the next plants would mean exchanging existing technology for APEVA's brand new technology. This would underscore our previous thinking: TV competition has increased massively over the last years with Samsung losing market share to LG and Chinese; mass market MicroLED TVs will only be available from 2026 the very earliest, so Samsung needs to bridge that innovation gap to maintain its market leading position - or risk losing more share to LG etc.
I might be overinterpreting and the read-across to APEVA might not be there, I lack the technical expertise and insight into Samsung, and worst of all, I am a bull on Aixtron which might lead to rose goggles. We will find out.
Schöne Headline mit "1bn investment" wenn dann später die Hälfte vom Staat kommt :-). Übrigens fast eine Mio USD pro zu erwartendem Mitarbeiter. Ist das dann quasi eine "China 2025 Vision" auf amerikanisch? Interessant aber mE "$522 million for machinery and equipment".
US Patent office published two more Aixtron OVPD patent applications besides the one I previously posted on the old board, all deal with OVPD tool with FMM capability. Keep in mind this tool is not for QD-OLED which does not need FMM. The tool can solve the problem the OLED industry has been trying to overcome. In it the FMM can be aligned with the substrate and individual RGB pixels can be formed. To date, all the smartphone OLED screens are RGB OLED. Samsung and the Chinese use GEN 6 half cut because of the FMM limitation. See 2018's Capital Market Day presentation.
OVPD is a top-down deposition in which FMM can rest on the substrate supported by a platform without the sagging problem cause by the wights of the FMM and the substrate. Because of this unique capability, FMM can sit and align accurately on the substrate to form individual tiny RGB pixels. That is a very important advantage of OVPD. Therefore, IMO QD-OLED is not a do-or-die for Aixtron. OVPD+FMM will be welcomed by many other OLED manufacturers. Can or will Samsung stop that?
United States Patent Application 20200010951 Kind Code A1 JAKOB; Markus ; et al. January 9, 2020 SUBSTRATE HOLDER ARRANGEMENT WITH MASK SUPPORT
Abstract A device for depositing a layer, which has been structured by the application of a mask, on a substrate, includes an adjusting device for adjusting the position of a mask support with respect to a support frame. The device also includes a mask lifting device, by which the support frame, together with the mask support, the adjusting device and a mask assembly, can be vertically displaced from a mask changing position into a processing position. The device also includes a substrate holder lifting device, by which the substrate holder can be vertically displaced from a loading position into a processing position. Restraining means, which include a V-groove and a spherical surface, restrain the substrate holder in the processing position on the support frame. The spherical surface, formed by a ball element of the support frame, is supported on flanks of the V-groove that is formed by the substrate holder.
United States Patent Application 20200010950 Kind Code A1 OUDES; Jaap ; et al. January 9, 2020 DEVICE FOR SEPARATING A STRUCTURED LAYER ON A SUBSTRATE, AND METHOD FOR SETTING UP THE DEVICE
Abstract A device for depositing a layer on a substrate, while a mask is placed on the substrate, includes an adjustment device for adjusting the position of a mask carrier with respect to a support frame. The adjustment device has, on the support frame, an adjustment lever that is mounted to rotate about an axis of rotation of a pivot bearing and that has a first and second arm. The second arm acts on the mask carrier, and a control rod that can be vertically displaced by an actuator acts on the first arm. For a vertical adjustment device, the second arm and the first arm extend in a horizontal direction, in which the second arm acts on a push rod that is connected to the mask carrier. For a horizontal adjustment device, the second arm extends in a vertical direction and the first arm extends in a horizontal direction.
Samsung Display Looking to Break Structure of Shadow Mask Industry That Has Been Monopolized by DNP Jul 23, 2019 Samsung Display is working on manufacturing its own ?shadow mask?, which is one of important components of small and medium OLED that has been imported from Japan. It has been working on this project for couple years. However, it had been making slow progress due to its relationship with Japanese suppliers and performance issue. It is planning to manufacture its own shadow mask as soon as possible so that it will not be affected by Japanese Government?s regulation. It will be interesting to see whether Japan?s monopolistic structure that started in 2007 when Samsung Display began to produce small and medium OLED will be broken. According to the industry, Samsung Display gave additional projects to companies that are also pushing to localize shadow masks and requested samples. Wave Electronics that has been working on localizing shadow mask for the longest time, Philoptics, and TGOTech are working with Samsung Display. Shadow Mask, which is also called FMM (Fine Metal Mask), is absolutely needed to produce small and medium OLED. It is one of important factors that produce high resolution for a Smartphone. Shadow mask is an invar that is thinner than a sheet of paper and it has countless fine holes that cannot be seen with a naked eye. Pixel is developed when organic matter that is evaporated from a high-temperature depositor passes through a shadow mask and attaches to a substrate. Thickness of a shadow mask and an angle of a hole that is formed affect development of a pixel. Samsung Display formed an exclusive supply contract with DNP (Dai Nippon Printing) when it started to manufacture small and medium OLED. The contract asked DNP to supply shadow masks that can implement certain level of high resolution only to Samsung Display. Although DNP supplies shadow masks to Chinese manufacturers, such shadow masks have low performance than the ones that are supplied to Samsung Display. http://english.etnews.com/20190723200001
Different materials expand differently with temperature. The FMM hanging below the substrate in a VTE tool expand differently from the substrate above it under the heat from thermal evaporation. This thermal expansion mismatch is causing a lot of the problems because the pixels cannot be aligned accurately. That is why the industry wants FMM made from Invar metal that expand LESS under heat and uses stretcher that tensions the FMM so it deforms less under heat.
DNP ((Dai Nippon Printing) has unique access to Hitachi metal that makes the Invar, while other FMM manufacturers have very limited, if any access to that metal. Samsung has had this exclusive contract with DNP for high resolution FMM. As I previously said, that is how Samsung creates competitive advantage.
The FMM in OVPD would not have that problem since the FMM sits on the substrate which is cooled from the platform. In this arrangement you don't need to worry about thermal expansion mismatch because they are at the same temperature. Only when the substrate is lowered from the deposition position during replacement of substrate the FMM would heat up by from showerhead, which is why in the previous Aixtron patent application Aixtron has the movable thermal shields for the FMM.
If all goes well, OVPD+FMM would require much cheaper FMM and break the strong obstacle from Samsung+DNP+Hitachi. IMHO.
Hi all, ST Micro had strong Q4 results today and a solid guidance for 2020, stock +6% I think. I posted a lot from the conf call with management below that provides FANTASTIC read-x for Aixtron:
1. They raised their capex budget from 1.17bn to 1.5bn (+28%) which caused a lot of focus in the call, seems this was unexpected. From reading the transcript I get the feeling that they are accelerating some of their innovation/new products, meaning they need to invest more (among others in GAN) which should help Aixtron.
2. STM is extremely active in SIC and GAN. GAN seems to be progressing ahead quite quickly for them (though not commercial yet), meaning Aixtron might get some orders here as well in 2020 (new to me). SIC clearly has momentum with increasing customers, seems that it is now consensus that the technology will become standard (was unsure until 1-2 years ago, I think).
3. VCSEL seems to be coming to the world side now and STM is clearly positive for Smartphones in 2020, that means overcapacity in the industry (see IQE) should reduce and capacity utilisation increase. I think Aixtron guided to potentially some VCSEL orders in H2-20 which is supported by these comments below.
Capex at 1.5bn vs. 1.17bn in 2019
This segment includes the addition of capacity for some of our existing -- exiting -- existing, sorry technologies and investment and mix evolution for our [ph]200-millimeter fab. It will also support the (inaudible) activities and the maintenance required by our manufacturing operations and infrastructure. This also include about $400 million of investments of strategic initiative, continued investments in our new (inaudible) 300-millimeter fab that will suppport growth in [ph]BCG IGBT and also power technologies. R&D for gallium nitride power technologies and production (inaudible) gallium nitride for RF devices and investment for silicon carbide. These include substrate activities following the acquisition of (inaudible). They also support our plans to establish internal manufacturing of 150-millimeter wafer and drive evolution to 200-millimeter wafer.
They also seem to be investing in VCSEL worldside-phone Equipment, if i can decipher this correctly, here a quote from the call:
"So this is the case for the CapEx. About our [ph]sound store clearly HT First of all, do you like Time of Flight for ranging from so (inaudible) support and so and so forth, so we continue to grow and basically we address all the smartphone player. About [ph]DIPMET phone size, ST really will continue to act as a leader to address phone spacing, face recognition both for structured light and order of technology, if they are requested and ST is also a key player for the rear facing, so we develop strong codec in technology to address the wall facing and back to your side of the smartphone. And we do expect to start to grow on this business starting next year."
In response to another question on Capex:
So we must retail offsets. But then so go into, it is a initiative on the gallium-nitride both for our energy control strategy, because again ST starting two years from now, we have totally completed our position to advise this market, we I repeat, high voltage [ph]PowerMOS, low voltage [ph]PowerMOS, IGBT, silicon carbide MOSFETs and soon gallium-nitride MOSFET. So we have the full spectrum of technology package and module to act as a leader on this market and [ph]cut the megatrend.
It's very technical question, (inaudible) by next year, we expect to start to generate revenue starts in 2021. For [ph]device what is clear that why again it is so important in our technology portfolio is because each time you need to have to exceed the second C and you need to work for a while again is a good answer. For -- whatever is on [ph]charger of Automotive all or just kind of device Sharjah where you need to go fast and with IFO well as this technology is great. Well, and silicon carbide, silicon carbide is a key success factor each time you go to a very high point. As an example, to move to 850V to have a very fast to charger and to optimize the battery and the --, silicon carbide is mandatory and is a killer in front of the IGBT. So this is a breakdown. Well, clearly thoughtful gallium, we are developing the technology, we are in the high-end with initiatives that I cannot disclose now because it's confidential for the time being. And -- but clearly this initiative have to boost our positioning on this device using GaN. And we expect it will contribute to our three years' plan, well $12 billion holdings.
Okay. This is Mark, who would like to give you a little bit more color on the silicon carbide. So we are in this moment engaged in 50 projects, we've 26, with 26 customers. And lastly, this is a 50% with automotive customers and 50% with industrial customers. So this is just showing you that our pipeline of opportunities expansion of opportunities in silicon carbide keep accelerating and we are extremely well positioned there.
However, still about 80% of revenue in Automotive SIC is generated by 1 customer (my guess is Tesla), the comment from Management on that question:
(inaudible) this year is still our main automotive customer because you know that also, let's say electrical car, Phase 1 there is a [ph]move more on the IGBT. So, it is clear that for us, still is main revenue contributor is our main customer. Moving to a three-year [ph]origin we clearly believe that the contribution from this customer will account for above -- about 50% of total [ph]seek revenues. And thanks to [ph]see if you can growth with other automotive and industrial customer. So it means we will stop. Okay. To have contribution from the other one next year.
More on SIC:
Between automotive and industrial is totally consistent in term of funnel of opportunities for ST to sustain our objective 30% market share of this business and achieve by 2025 minimum $1 billion of revenue expected from this MOSFET on silicon carbide and clearly that's the reason why in order to secure short midterm our circulation, we have increased our agreement with Cree. And we have agreed strategic agreement with (inaudible). In parallel, as many time shared with you, we have invested in Norstel, European based raw material provider to develop an internal supply chain and we will decide [ph]finally what will be the weight of this internal supply chain. But more important, this internal supply chain will be also a driver -- a key driver of [ph]LNG. So (inaudible) 200-millimeter and for sure a key driver to improve ourself in term of yield efficiency and productivity for the raw material. So at the end, to support our $1 billion target by 2025, we will have well spread and balanced supply chain between two key player Cree and SICRYSTAL and [ph]one internal one to secure our supply from Europe and driving our (inaudible) and conversion to 200-millimeter. So this is our strategy on silicon carbide.
Smartphone Outlook for 2020, should reduce the VCSEL overcapacity in the market:
So about smartphone, as you know, 2019 still was an year with a number of the smartphone decline year-over-year. 2020, the expectation is that the smartphone are going to increase again leveraging on the introduction of the 5G smartphones coming to the market. So there will be an increase of the number of [ph]forms, with an increase of our [ph]ASPD inside forms. On top of that for the Chinese smartphone maker was asking, we are leveraging of course on the leadership position that we do have, for example, on the wireless charging on MEMS and we are expected to be in market share in those sets.