Britische Immobilien - Der naechste Crash

geht so langsam ans eingemachte...

House price drop at new record

House prices have recorded their largest monthly fall since 1991, says the Nationwide building society.
Prices have fallen by 2.5% during May, according to its latest monthly survey.
The lender said prices were now 4.4% lower than a year ago, a drop of £8,000 which has taken the average UK house price down to £173,583.

The Nationwide, the UK's second-largest lender, said price falls were now accelerating and had continued for seven months in a row.
"The pace of house price falls accelerated in May as more weak economic news added to the gathering momentum of negative sentiment about the housing market," said Fionnuala Earley, the Nationwide's chief economist.
"At seven months, this is also the longest consecutive period of monthly falls since 1992," she added.

Monthly price movements can be volatile.
But the accelerating pace of the price falls was illustrated by the fact that they are now 2.9% lower than they were in the previous three months.

Low point

The Nationwide pointed out that its survey chimed closely with much of the other recent evidence about the state of the UK housing market.
In March, new mortgage approvals for home buyers were at their lowest since the Bank of England's records on the topic began back in 1993.
And recently, estate agents have reported that falling prices have been at their most widespread across the UK since 1978.

Despite this, Ms Earley argued that the market was not heading for the same sort of crash as that seen in the early 1990s.
"First, fewer homeowners bought at the top of the market in this cycle," she said.
"This means a much smaller proportion of borrowers face the full effect of falls in prices than was the case in the 1990s.
"Secondly, today's borrowers have typically put down a larger deposit than their 1980s counterparts," she added.

Further falls?

After a boom lasting for more than a decade, house price inflation took a decisive turn downwards last autumn.
The market collapsed under the twin impact of two pressures.
Prices became so high that most first-time buyers were priced out of the market, and the effects of the credit crunch have dried up the supply of money for new mortgages.

Lenders are now expecting that fresh mortgage lending will shrink by about 40% this year, despite the efforts of the Bank of England to inject more money into the banking system.
Ms Earley said that Nationwide was continuing to forecast single-digit house price falls during 2008.

But Howard Archer, chief UK economist at Global Insight, painted a gloomier picture for homeowners.
"It now looks more likely than not that house prices will suffer double-digit falls both this year and in 2009," he said.
He said this was a result of serious buyer affordability constraints, limited and often more expensive mortgages available because of the continuing tight lending conditions, a deteriorating economic outlook, and reduced prospects for further interest rate cuts in the near term.

Record 1m homes for sale as prices slide
23 June 2008

More than one million homes are for sale in England and Wales for the first time since records began, research claims today.

The landmark is a sign of the panic among homeowners desperate to sell their properties before prices fall even further.

Others are selling in order to grab a bargain by getting a newly-built home for a massive discount. The report, from the property website Rightmove, says the average asking price slumped by £3,000 - or 1.2% - between May 11 and June 14.

The price slump is even more dramatic in some parts of the country, with prices in the West London borough of Hounslow falling by nearly £20,000.

Rightmove said about 172,000 homes were put on the market during the five weeks, pushing the total number on sale above one million for the first time.
The research also shows estate agents have record numbers of unsold homes on their books. On average, each branch has 75 homes for sale.

Rightmove estimates there are now about 15 properties for sale for every buyer. Its latest monthly report shows that the average asking price is now £239,564 with annual house price growth reduced to just 0.1%.

The move, which follows a 1.2% jump in asking prices during the previous month, suggests sellers' have finally accepted that their home is not worth as much as it once was, property website Rightmove said.

The fall was the first ever recorded by Rightmove during June, traditionally seen as one of the peak months of the house selling season. Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove, said: 'In spite of the lowest housing transactions for 30 years, new sellers had been coming to the market asking for record prices.

'It was a mad state of affairs that defied the laws of economics. Thankfully new sellers are now taking some pro-active steps to price more realistically from the outset to attract increasingly hard-pressed buyers.'

The group insisted sales were still going through, and there was pent up demand for the right property at the right price.

It added that 'run-of-the-mill' properties that were not much different to others on the market had to stand out as 'bargain buys' to sell.

The widening gap between asking prices and what buyers are currently willing to pay or able to afford is behind the low level of transactions in the property market.

Rightmove said further reductions in asking prices would be required to sell homes where there was an oversupply, as buyer affordability continued to deteriorate against the backdrop of rising living costs and higher mortgage rates due to the credit crunch.

Mr Shipside said: 'For most sellers that will mean whatever they thought of asking for their property at the peak of the boom, they need to take at least 10% off. Otherwise their property will stagnate.'

Southern areas of the country led the way on price falls, with average asking prices dropping by 2.4% in the South East and 2.2% in the South West during the month, while in East Anglia and London they were 1.6% and 1.4% lower respectively.

But asking prices rose in other areas of the country, increasing by 0.5% in the North and 0.4% in both the West Midlands and Wales.

However, these areas have seen some of the steepest price falls to date, with average asking prices 3% lower in the West Midlands than they were a year ago, and 2.6% lower in Wales.  

House prices 'fell 0.9% in June'  

UK house prices fell by 0.9% on average last month, according to the latest survey from the Nationwide.

The decline was less severe than the record 2.5% fall seen in May, but prices were now 6.3% lower than a year ago, the Nationwide said.

The average home now costs £172,415 and is £13,629 cheaper than at the top of the market in October last year.

BIGGEST ANNUAL FALL IN PRICES
Sheffield: 17% annual fall, average price £168,321
Belfast: -11%, £268,174
Birmingham: -9%, £166,581
Manchester: -9%, £192,151
Coventry: -9%, £158,888

House sales drop by half in a year
23 July 2008

The number of homes sold has halved in a year, according to official figures issued yesterday.
Coming alongside evidence of the soaring number of repossessions, the news lays bare the extent of the meltdown in the housing market.

In June last year, 140,000 homes were sold for £40,000 or more. This was before the Northern Rock debacle began and the words 'credit crunch' were bandied about.
Twelve months later, figures from HM Revenue and Customs show that just 77,000 homes were sold in June.

Many potential buyers are being put off by the difficulty in getting a mortgage, while others are scared away by predictions that house prices could fall 35% by the end of 2010.
The scale of the collapse is alarming, and is a nightmare for families who need to sell but cannot find a buyer.

Howard Archer, chief UK economist at the consultancy Global Insight, said: 'The bad news on the housing market currently remains relentless, with very low housing market activity being a consequence of the toxic mix of stretched buyer affordability and extremely tight lending conditions.'

Separate figures, from the auction experts Essential Information Group, reveal that the number of repossessed properties coming up for sale in auction houses has rocketed nearly 300 per cent in three years.
Between January and June, 3,115 repossessed homes went under the hammer in Britain, compared with just 799 in the same period during 2005.
The scale of the increase is extraordinary, with the numbers soaring 66% over the past year alone from just 1,873 in 2007.

Experts have been warning that repossessions will soar but this is the first concrete evidence.
David Sandeman, managing director of Essential Information Group, said: 'Repossessions now make up over one in five of the properties on sale at auction.'

Official repossession figures from the first half of the year, from the Council of Mortgage Lenders, will not be published until August.
But the CML predicts repossessions will rise sharply this year from 27,100 last year to 45,000 this year, equal to nearly 125 families every day.

Repossession can have devastating consequences on families who lose their homes. It can lead to depression, divorce and an agonising disruption to children's lives who often have to move schools and lose touch with friends.

These days, it is becoming a reality for more families as inflation-busting rises in household bills and mortgage payments cripple their finances.
The number of families who are 'getting by' but describe their finances as 'pretty tight', has jumped according to the research firm Mintel.
In 2006, 25% said they were only just surviving but this has jumped to around 40%, its report reveals today.

Other figures, published yesterday by the National Association of Estate Agents, confirm the crisis facing anyone who needs to sell their home, particularly if they are in a rush.

Last month, estate agents sold an average of just six homes, which has more than halved from an average of 13 in the same month last year. One estate agent from the North East described the first half of this year as 'a complete disaster', adding: 'I can't see any light at the end of the tunnel.'

One from Devon said: 'Transactions are down around 60% which has sent shivers down the spine.'
He said there were signs of a slight improvement over the past week with 'an increasing perception' that prices 'will not fall forever'.

Several agents said buyers are so nervous that they are regularly getting 'cold feet' on the day that contracts are due to be exchanged.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/...icle_id=447847&in_page_id=8

Property woe grows as mortgages plunge
23 July 2008, 10:43am

Banks have described the property market as the slowest since the 1990s crash after mortgages for home purchase dived 67% year-on-year in June to a new record low.

Latest figures from the British Bankers' Association showed the number of mortgages approved for home buyers tumbling by 23% from May to June, to just 21,118.
The data is considered a leading indicator for house prices and highlights the dramatic slump in transactions in the property market, with the number of loans for house purchase the lowest figure recorded since the BBA began its reports in 1997.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/...icle_id=447863&in_page_id=2&ct=5

House prices fall at fastest rate since '91
Thu Jul 31, 2008 8:15am BST

LONDON (Reuters) - House prices fell 1.7 percent on the month in July and at the fastest annual rate since at least 1991, the Nationwide building society said on Thursday, in a further sign the housing market is cooling fast.

The figures came hours after a survey showed consumer confidence fell to a record low this month, highlighting the uphill struggle facing Prime Minister Gordon Brown if he is to regain public support before the next election.

The GFK NOP consumer confidence index fell five points to -39 in July, the lowest reading since the survey began in 1974.

Nationwide said the average house price fell for a ninth straight month in July to 169,316 pounds -- 9 percent below the peak hit in October last year of 186,044 pounds and the lowest level since August 2006.

House prices were down 8.1 percent compared to the same month a year ago -- the biggest annual fall since the monthly series began in January 1991.

"The combination of weaker consumer confidence and sharply slowing house prices will take its toll on consumer spending and the broader economy throughout the remainder of this year," said George Buckley, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank.

...

http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNews/...mber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

House prices 'fall 10.5% in year'

UK house prices have seen an annual double-digit fall for the first time since 1990, according to the latest survey from the Nationwide.

The 10.5% annual decline came after house prices dropped by 1.9% in August, the building society said.

The average home now costs £164,654 which is more than £19,000 cheaper than in the same month last year.

Gloomy forecasts from house builders mean the market is likely to remain subdued, Nationwide says.

The Nationwide survey found that house prices have fallen for 10 months in a row and are at their lowest level since early 2006.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7584877.stm

Oder eine Finanzierung? Umgerechnet 600,- EUR für ein Kellerzimmer, also ohne Tageslicht? Das ist schon der Hammer. Wenn die jedoch alle viel verdienen, wesentlich mehr als bei uns, dann ist das aber relativ. Sicher, ein Student ist nicht dazuzuzählen.

Ein Beispiel aus unserer Zeitung vom Samstag: Für 700,- EUR kann ich hier eine DHH mieten. Baujahr 2006.
140 qm + NF, 5 ZKBWC, 2 Terr., Garten. Dazu kommen noch NK und 2 MM Kaution. Sicher, ein Vergleich ist das nicht. Aber in Berlin wäre es auch wesentlich billiger  als in London.  

mieten sind in der tat hoch, besonders natuerlich innerhalb londons.
wohne auch zur miete... kueche, bad, schlafzimmer, wohnzimmer fuer rund £1000 warm.

selbst berlin kann man mit london nicht vergleichen. wenn du teure grossstaedte in deutschland zum vergleichen suchst, muss man wohl nach muenchen, koeln, duesseldorf oder hamburg schauen.

@Hotte - Miete!

Aber das Kellerzimmer hatte Tageslicht, ueberhaupt wird haeufig der Erdboden auf 1m ausgeschachtet, damit man eben den Keller als Zimmer mitbenutzen kann.

Ingesamt habe ich 90% meines Vermoegens in EURO umgeschichtet, davon 40% Cash, 30% Anleihen, 10% Derivate (gegen das Pfund) und 10% Aktien.

Man muss sich nur vor Augen fuehren, welche Geldmenge jeden Monat von Pfund in Euro getauscht werden muessen, damit die Britischen Importeure ihre Rechnungen zahlen koennen. Mit jedem Umtausch wird der Schuldenberg dieser Oekonomie hoeher.

Jetzt steht das Pfund schon bei 1.11 gegen den Euro...

Die Financial Times hatte am Freitag ne dicke Schlagzeile auf Seite 1 und ich mag mir nicht vorstellen, wohin das noch fuehren soll. Die Fundamentalkraefte gegen das Pfund sind weiterhin intakt. Aus meiner Sicht immer noch lohnswert mit Derivaten voll draufzuhalten.

Wirtschaft in UK = Finanzen & Immobilien,... Auf Maerkten fuer Gueter und Dienstleistungen wirkt eine schwache Waehrung positiv. Fuer (Finanz-)Assets koennte eine schwache Waehrung eine prozyklische Dynamik entfachen, die hier einen wahren Run verursachen koennte. Fuer mich ist es durchaus moeglich, dass das Pfund an einem Tag mal 20% runterdreht...

Wenn man ansieht mit welche Wucht hier im Moment die (I.-)Banken Leute vor die Tuere setzen, kann einem Angst und Bange werden. Ueberall massive Einschlaege vor der Boni-Saison im Jan/Feb

Der Großraum London war schon immer massiv überteuert, ich kann mich erinnern daß Anfang der 80er ein primitives 40 qm Appartement in einem Vorort 400 Lb gekostet hat, das waren damals umgerechnet 1600 DM und für das Geld konnte man in den meisten Regionen Deutschlands ein  prächtiges Haus mieten.  

House prices 'could drop another 55%'
11 March 2009

House prices could slump by another 55%, a respected City forecaster warns.

It also predicts a deep recession lasting throughout next year and a 'very real probability' that Britain will go bankrupt.
The report leaked yesterday from financial analysts Numis Securities says that the collapse in house prices is not 'anywhere near over'.

They have already fallen 21% from their peak, but the report says they will slump further by up to 55% if the over-correction in prices is as bad as in the early 1990s.

That would leave six million Britons in negative equity - when their house is worth less than their mortgage. Yesterday also saw Alistair Darling warn that there could be 'no instant remedy or overnight solution' to the economic crisis.

The Chancellor used a speech to prepare the ground for slashing growth forecasts that now appear wildly optimistic. In November he had predicted that the economy would shrink by about 1% this year, before growing by about 1.75% in 2010. He is expected to tear up those predictions in next month's Budget.

Mr Darling said: 'It is crucial to remember that we are dealing with a constantly evolving problem - making life difficult for every country.

'Since November we have witnessed a collapse in world trade not seen in generations and a much deeper and more widespread global recession, with every country affected.'

He added: 'When it comes to economic forecasts, even the International Monetary Fund finds it difficult to hit this moving target.'

But the Numis report is scathing about the Government's response to the recession and warns it may end up needing a 1970s-style bailout from the IMF.

'The bankruptcy of the UK is a very real probability as the UK government is trying to stimulate a greater debt burden in a grossly over-indebted economy,' it says.

'We believe the scale of the imbalances in the UK means there is no prospect of a recovery in 2009 and we expect the UK to be mired in a deep recession through all of 2010.' It calls the Government's aim to get banks to lend again at 2007 levels 'crazy' and warns against anyone borrowing now to enter the property market.

Numis predicts house price falls will accelerate in coming months as amateur buy-to-let investors begin to 'panic sell' their portfolios. The biggest collapse will be in the glut of city centre flats and executive homes built in the past decade, it claims.

Numis suggests that the average house price - around £160,000 even after recent falls - is over-valued by between 17% and 39%. It calculates that the average house price should be just £96,000, based on average earnings and the old lending limit of three times salary plus a 25% deposit.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/...&in_page_id=57&ct=5