Die kanadischen Analysten-Häuser heben ihre Kursziele teils drastisch an.. Northern Graphite Corp. (NGC-TSXV), $3.24
Northern Graphite produces spherical graphite
Stock Rating: Speculative Buy (previously Hold) Target Price: $4.15 (previous: $2.40
Philip Ker, Geol, MBA 416-775-5130 pker@union-securities.com April 03, 2012
Event
Northern Graphite confirms Bissett Creek graphite capable of being purified into spherical graphite.
Impact
Positive: Increasing stock rating and target price.
Details
Spherical graphite sells at a substantial premium: The recent news announced by the Company has signaled that spherical graphite can be produced from Bissett Creek graphite ore. Prior to this achievement, our analysis focused solely on the production and sale of flake graphite concentrate. After discussions with management, we now believe this value added product will be produced at Bissett Creek as an additional revenue stream. Spherical graphite is a purified, potato shaped type of graphite that is formed from flake graphite and contains approximately 99% Carbon. This more pure form of graphite is used within Lithium Ion batteries and based on current flake concentrate and battery grade material prices on the market, along with positive confirmation of recent tests on ore from Bissett Creek, Northern Graphite is poised to sell a battery grade product at a substantial premium to concentrate as current contracts for battery grade spherical graphite sell at approximately $7200USD/t.
Additionally, the Company aims at using its medium flake (-80) sized graphite for use as feed to the purity plant and thus enables the Company to capitalize on a higher profit margin by using the lower valued flakes in its purification process. We believe over time, an optimal blend of flake feed will be achieved in order to maximize efficiency and revenues of the operation.
Purity plant now needed to maximize potential: With confirmation of production of spherical graphite from Bissett Creek flake graphite, the project now needs a purification plant in addition to its floatation recovery cycle. With limited investigation or engineering design on a plant done thus far, we estimate an additional Capex requirement of $15M. Furthermore, despite high open market prices for spherical graphite, its production does come at a substantial cost. We assume that due to the intensity of thermal and chemical requirements needed in the process that a $1200/t operating cost is justified and would be in addition to the mining and recovery costs of the flake concentrate. Despite the additional costs, there is a substantial profit margin to take advantage of and we believe that once engineering studies are complete, the Company will have an operating purification plant at the Bissett Creek project in 2015.
New assumptions in conjunction with production, processing and corporate forecast:
· Required Capex of $95M to include the $15M needed for the purification plant
· Purification plant coming on-line in 2015, at 20% of production feed rate
· Feed rate to slowly increase to 50% of production as battery grade demand increases
· Selling price of battery grade of $7200/t with operating costs of $1200/t
· Yields of 50% during purification process from medium flake concentrate
· Anticipating a $15M financing at ~$3/sh for 2012 Capex requirements
· Utilizing a 10% discount rate in our DCF and current target price based on 0.8x NAV.
Recommendation
With several upcoming catalysts, along with the quality of the Bissett Creek project, we continue to believe Northern Graphite will evolve as a large flake concentrate and spherical graphite producer within the safe, mining friendly jurisdiction of Ontario. Milestones such as project permitting, Capex financing and off-take agreements should be reached over the coming quarters and present a clear picture for the Company as it moves towards production. Due to our re-valuation of the stock to include the value added component of producing spherical graphite, we are re-rating the stock to a Speculative Buy and are increasing our target to $4.15 from $2.40 based on 0.8x NAVPS.
Risk to outlook: Our 12 month outlook forecasts development of the Bissett Creek project and assumes some equity dilution in order to fund the capital expenditures needed. Any deterrence or delay in the project’s development would negatively impact our outlook. Additionally, since the Company’s future revenues are driven by the sale of graphite, and since Bissett Creek is the Company’s lone operation, a decline in graphite prices or demand, would impact the financial viability of the project and could alter Management’s decision to continue advancing the project.
Philip Ker B.Sc. Geol, MBA
416-775-5130 pker@union-securities.com
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