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Exzellenter Artikel auf GS erschienen, u.a. über Standard Graphite Graphite Stocks - Graphite Market Pulse - April 1, 2012
April 1st, 2012 -Well it's been another couple big weeks folks, and after many of them on the road I'm finally back in Vancouver now, maybe with just enough time to update the state of the graphite markets and our latest comparables, unpack my suitcase and straighten my tie for another big week of action.
This week I'll be talking about the Jim Dines effect, a rising Swedish graphite darling, two stellar market performers, a company that has certainly come right out of meditation but needs to be watched closely, and then serving you up the latest TSX Venture market comparables. And don't worry my friends in OZ, we'll be beefing this site right up in the coming days and weeks so we'll be sure to get you in the comparables real soon.
The Dines Effect
“James Dines, truly a living legend, is one of the most accurate and highly regarded investment analysts today.” ~http://www.dinesletter.com/
Mr. Dines is widely regarded as one of if not the biggest newsletter writer in the game, and on March 26th he announced his interest in the graphite space, with an initial recommendation on Flinders Resources (tsx.v: FDR). He also mentions what we all know now, that there are many entrants into the space but it’s hard to yet make heads or tails of the early plays especially. (Of course that’s why this site is here, so people can make sense of it all. See my comparables to give you a hand, below).
Word of Dines’ commentary spread like wildfire this week, as it has been my understanding that a number of graphite skeptics were still sitting on the sidelines trying to determine if the space is legit. I have said this before, so I will say it again…the opportunities in a cycle like this don’t last forever. There will be a time when interest in graphite will cool off, but that won’t be today. I believe the current fundamentals are sound and we will need to see a number of projects separate themselves from the pack before the window of opportunity for all these emerging companies begins to close. Sometimes these cycles have been short, but others longer. Rare Earths for instance, which Dines also compares this opportunity to, had a thriving opportunity cycle of about 18 months most figure, maybe up to 2 years. I think we’ll need to see some of these projects play out before any of this action slows down, and let’s be honest; a fellow like Dines does need to comment on a space if he doesn’t feel it has legs. And clearly his and the broader market acknowledged that this week, as many players witnessed huge buying this week, including tsx.v: NGC, FDR, FMS, SGH, SRK, ZEN, CJC…and I could go on. For those who are unaware and in the interest of disclosure, CJC is my deal, but have a look at the day we and others had even just this Friday. I am of the opinion this interest and action will continue in the space for some time.
A Swedish Beauty
Having announced and surely well oversubscribed a $15 million financing a few days ago with a syndicate of heavyweights, Flinders Resources (tsx.v: FDR) has been a favorite of mine as you know if you’ve been reading my past entries. It’s special for these modern/tech metals niches that when a supply crisis emerges that there are advanced assets essentially sitting ready to come back on stream, but otherwise dormant. This is one of the best plays out there in my opinion, and Dines agrees, calling it a likely graphite ‘best of breed.’ The stock has been rocking. Pay attention to this one.
On Rockstars and Perforance Standards
Sometimes you just have to take your hats off to groups that are really making magic happen, and this week the kudos need to go to Northern Graphite (tsx.v: NGC) and Standard Graphite (tsx.v: SGH). For those who are unaware, Northern has an advanced flagship asset, and Standard has put together a large portfolio of promising early stage assets. These companies are not directly associated to one another, but I am speaking about their similar market performance here. Northern has done an outstanding job generating market interest and support for their story and really, I have no idea how much farther that’ll go. I do know MGI Securities called for a near term target of $3.50/share and I am sure that’s helping keep it going. Every day they are gaining more and more horsepower to be a veritable leader in the space for the long term.
For Standard Graphite (tsx.v: SGH), they are riding a lot of confidence in the potential of their assets as they are completing and review their recent electromagnetic (EM) surveys, that is for sure. The stock is now pushing a $17 million market cap with a close at $0.80 on Friday. I would anticipate something may be in the works at these levels, as they may look to lock in more capital and keep trucking forward on their large portfolio of assets. We shall see, but moral of the story is way to go. Both these deals are rolling.
A tsx.v: ZEN State of Mind
I wonder if that is indeed the state of mind of Zenyatta’s President as the company has been on a sudden and absolute tear the past few days, with huge gains and massive volumes. Lots of drilling and analysis ongoing from what I understand so here’s hoping for these guys and everyone who’s pilling in that when there is news that it’s as good as the market is suggesting right now.
Comparables Summary
Since my last update on March 18th, we have definitely come to life on all cylinders. Maybe a bit of a PDAC hangover there, but lots of green across the sector since then.
The big boys keep running, and based on the valuations early stage companies like Standard and Strike are realizing, there is definitely a lot of upside potential in the other early stage plays with many of these exploration companies around a $3 to $5 mil market cap. Look for the first next best companies to move soon (clean, with large prospective assets and cash) and then see if those at the very bottom get their stories going in the near term as well. Surely many investors are looking to reload down here for some big quick gains, even if just cycling out of their positions in the bigger plays that have been charging hard.
Still lots of room in the space though, as there haven’t been many large, advanced plays that have come out of the woodwork to spoil the party. Look for the trend of more entrants, acquisitions, financings, and positive gains to continue in my opinion until demand looks like it’ll be fed for the long term. In the meantime, it looks to me like that process is going to take some time.. Der gesamte Artikel + die Übersicht der Peer Group-Werte: http://www.graphitestocks.com/...phite-Market-Pulse----April-1,-2012-
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