It is possible to be $1.2/share in 2010 4-Oct-09 04:34 pm Read the contract details:
The final scope of work for The Electric Vehicle (EV) Project will include the deployment of 10,950 Level 2 (220V) chargers, 260 Level 3 fast-chargers and 4,700 Nissan LEAF zero-emission electric vehicles in five states: Arizona, California, Oregon, Tennessee, and Washington. In conjunction with the contract signing, The EV Project officially commenced on October 1, 2009.
The major part of the contract, is 10950 Level 2 (220V) charger. After carefully research, I think the purchase price of Level 2 charger, will be limited within $1500. Total cost will be less than $15M.
The burn rate of company, according to latest 10Q, is about 12M/year, so, next 3 years will be 36M. Suppose they control the company expense restrictly at the same level, there is about $50M for fast charger, installation and data analysis in next 3 years.
Suppse the installation of each charger is $1000 ( I believe the real cost is lower than it), the total installation cost will be $1000*11210=$12M. Suppose the fast charger is 5 times expensive than level 2 charger, the cost of it is about $7500, then, $7500*260=$2M
Then, the draft profit margine in next 3 years, could be:
100M-15M-2M-36M-12M=55M
Suppose they need to hire more people, and data analysis, ... cost another unpredict expense 30M, the profit of this project will give them more than $25M net income in next 3 years. The earning per share will be $25M/250M/3=0.03/year
Consider so many companies are working and will launch their own electronic car in next 5 years, the P/E 10 for ELTY is very reasonable. So, the price of ETLY now is absolutely worth more than $0.3.
If consider the real commercial orders from other state, and the parking lot owner in 2010, the growth P/E will be more than 20, or 30, or 40!
If you use GPE 40 to estimate, the price should be more than $1.2.
Is it possible? I believe it is very very posibble in 2010!
das habe ich aus einer forum. 1,2$ in 2010
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