1. Andrea
I am prepared to accept anything you say as long as there is a valid reference. a)"I was told that if law 4050 was passed by more than 2/3 of the parliament they could argue that it has almost the status of a constitutional amendment." who told you so, based on what evidence? as far as I know a main reason there have been no direct sackings of greek civil servants is that their position is protected by the constitution. If it was that simple, they would bring a law to change this as long as it was voted by a super-majority. The reason they have to wait for the next constitutional amendment in 2014, is that they can't do it otherwise. b) "With regards to the retail people in the 8 countries, my understanding is that they were CACed like everyone else" Do you know any retail investors from the specific 8 countries who have been CACed?? So far I have found two people, one in UK and one from Spain (here) who say they have not been caced yet! Which is intriguing, since now is 2 weeks since the swap, why only those have been "delayed" since everybody else got exchanged very quickly? Personally, I had the 03/12 bond and I am UK resident. My bonds were CACed, however I had bought them via my greek broker where they still had my old greek address. I contacted repeatedly ΥΠΟΙΚ and asked them to clarify my position as I am a UK resident, suggesting that I should be paid at par. THEY HAVE NOT GIVEN ME AN ANSWER SO FAR! (my broker is now chasing the matter in writing...)
Furthermore: You wonder on what basis the legality of the PSI can be challenged. I can tell you many, and I invite you to be the devil's advocate!:) Indeed QIs have limited arsenal in their disposal, as they knew exactly what they were buying into. I think this affects your judgement on the matter.
1. I believe that any trader has a responsibility to inform RETAIL investors of the potential risks involved. For example, if a trader sells me shares and tells me that my capital is 100% secure, then I can sue him for any losses I incur (that's why no sane trader would say such thing) In the case of greek retails, there has been a MASSIVE campaign of deception and missinformation a) I remind you the famous tv ad "state bonds: the safe investement" (...) b) the formal invitation back in 2009 phrased "...we also invite greek SAVERS to buy these bonds..." c) the famous statement in 2010 of GAP (prime minister!) that "the greek bonds are perfectly safe" c) Papakonstantinou and Venizelos statements in the same line.. "we will find a way to cover the retail investors who entrusted us with their savings 100%" so what court will decide that either a) the banks who sold the bonds or b) the issuer fulfilled their LAWFUL RESPONSIBILITY to warn people this type of investment has ANY risks? I bet 90% of greek retails had NO IDEA until 3 months ago what CACs are, not to add the possibility of them been introduced retroactively! Therefore- BOTH banks and Greece can be sued for malpractice and mis-selling bonds.
2. State bonds were advertised widely NOT as form of investment, but as alternative form of SAVINGS, given that banks can fail. Since the Greek state decided to guarantee BY LAW the savings in banks up to 100k, then this infers Greece MUST extend this cover to their own debt! How can someone guarantee the debt of a third party but not guarantee their own debt at least to the same level? On what basis the greek state bails out people who trusted a dodgy little bank name Proton, but can't cover its own debt?
3. Even in the swap being legal, the rights of the minority need to be protected equally. What court will accept that giving a 70-yr old pensioner bonds 2042 constitutes fair treatment? 4. The greek constitution protects the right to his property for every citizen. in free translation "Nobody can be denied of his property, and even if it is in the national interest that a certain asset is taken from a citizen by the state, the state is obliged to compensate the owner for his property at the value of the time when the action happened" Now, it can be argued that the market value of the greek bonds at the time of PSI was only 30% of their nominal value. Luckily for us, the ECB WHO HOLDS EXACTLY THE SAME BONDS with the rest, exchanged them AT PAR, which PROVES that those bonds indeed were worth their nominal value!
5. The preferential treatment of the ECB via their private deal with the greek state is a clear case of subordination and an attempt to defraud the other creditors. (I will be damned if no hedge fund takes them to court at least on that point!)
I really look forward to hearing your views how ALL the above arguments can be thrown out in court... In my opinion the only way the retails can fail at their law action is that they hire the most useless lawyers...
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