Die beiden pleitebedrohten Hedgefonds, die zu Bear Stearns zählen, haben aus faulen Hypothekenkrediten herbe Verluste. Nun beginnt ein Tauziehen. Bear Stearns will mehr Zeit, um die Sache in Ruhe zu regeln oder abzuwickeln, während Merrill Lynch, die Bear Stearns 400 Millionen Dollar geliehen hatten, "Verluste begrenzen" will...
Was mir zu denken gibt: Die Story steht bei CBS Marketwatch. Wollen die wieder neue Shorts anlocken, um Kanonenfutter für weitere Indexanstiege zu bekommen? Denn die einzigen, die jetzt noch willens sind, draufzusatteln, sind offenbar covernde Shorts.
Mortgage bets burned Bear Stearns. Was the risk worth it?
By David Weidner, MarketWatch Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Jun 21, 2007
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Bear Stearns Cos. and Merrill Lynch & Co. are playing a nasty game of hot potato over some mortgage securities: Bear wants a chance to fix what's broken and Merrill, which backed the venture with $400 million in loans, wants to cut its losses.
These banks bet big on the subprime sector. Subprime loans are made to less credit-worthy borrowers at higher rates. It's a controversial lending practice that advocates say gives poorer Americans a shot at the dream of owning a home. Critics say it's tantamount to usury and predatory lending.
The reality is that neither is entirely true. More than half of subprime loans are actually cash-out refinance loans. Those loans are used to pay off credit cards or other debts, take trips to Bermuda, buy an unaffordable car or do some speculative investing - in the market, real estate or elsewhere.
"These loans are all about people in a tough spot," said Matthew Lee, head of Fair Finance Watch, a Bronx, N.Y.-based community group that has championed the cause of urban borrowers for whom a traditional bank loan is out of reach. We see subprime offers all-over the place: "consolidate your debts" or "tap you home's equity," the ads read. As Lee puts it, why not pay off credit cards with 18% annual interest rates with a 9% loan? "It sounds better," he said. "But you're putting your house up."
[Dann ist es auch kein Wunder, dass der US-Konsument so "resilient" ist - wenn er seine Kreditkartenschulden immer wieder durch Hausbeleihungen auffüllen kann, und nun sogar die Habenichtse, die bei traditionellen Banken gar keine Kredite bekommen...]
In return, banks and brokerages are collecting interest that's about 50% higher the normal rate of return for a 30-year mortgage. It's people making big bets and banks willing to take the risk of backing those bets. A subprime loan is a good proposition for a lender: make the payments, the bank collects them, don't make the payments, the bank gets the house.
For bank and borrower, is it consent or predation?
Whatever the view, there is no arguing that subprime loans are driving an increase in defaults. One in every 656 homes was in foreclosure in May, a 19% increase over April and a 90% increase over the same period last year, according to Realtytrac.
In California, a strong market for the subprime area, defaults are up 30% in a month and 353% over the last year.
Wall Street's battle over who will get left holding the subprime bag is ultimately about earnings. This week Bear Stearns, and to a lesser extent Goldman Sachs Group took the medicine.
Merrill wants to avoid the fate when it reports later next month.
It's this kind of panic that fuels critics who argue that big investment banks are just souped-up hedge funds, making big bets in derivatives.
"The profitability at investment-banking firms has moved to the trading desk," soon-to-be Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack said in an interview in June 2005. "A lot of people say that certain firms are nothing, really, but hedge funds."
Hmm. I can guess at a couple of them.
Blackstone IPO
Big initial public offerings, like the ones from Google Inc. or Friday's first day of trading for Blackstone Group Inc. (BX), tend to draw attention from investors who normally would not be in the mix.
Blackstone will be among the biggest IPOs of the last five years. In addition, some investors believe that owning shares in the $37 billion investment firm are the road to private-equity riches.
[Das glauben ja auch die dämlichen Chinesen, die mit 3 Mrd. $ dabei sind...]
"Is there any way I can get into the IPO before it comes out?" a reader named Benjamin asked. "Also, what is the minimum I can invest?"
Benjamin said he was interested in Blackstone because he wanted to get in on the ground floor of the investment. He's not alone. Many readers who have no experience in IPO investing are interested in Blackstone.
You won't find stock picks in this space. Blackstone could be a mountain of earnings or an anchor dragging down your portfolio. But you will find some advice when it comes to making an investment you're not sure about: do your homework.
Big coincidence
As disheartening as it is to hear about curiously prescient trading before a big announcement, it can be satisfying to watch people who think they know something go up in flames.
Such was the case with Verasun Energy Corp. (VSE) last week. The Brookings, S.D.-based ethanol maker saw its stock price and option activity spike in anticipation of a deal. Rumors flooded the market that BP PLC (BP), no less, was about to make an offer.
Chart of VSE
In the derivatives market, 10,724 call option contracts were issued June 11 - about 85% of the Verasun's call option volume for the entire month of May. Call contracts outnumbered puts by 5-to-1, according to the Options Clearing Corp.
In the broad equity market Verasun touched $15.57, shares finished up 6% and volume rose to 2.6 million shares, the highest level in more than a month.
Then things unwound from there like Paris Hilton on her way to the pokey. Not only did BP restrain itself from bidding, Raymond James cut its ratings on the entire ethanol industry. The next day, the Associated Press reported that there might be an ethanol glut coming.
By Tuesday, Verasun shares closed down at $13.73, 11% lower than their June 11 high. It's hard to blame investors for trading on what they believe is precious information. Everyone wants an advantage. But for every tidbit of insider information that gets it right, there must be 50 that don't pan out. Many of those rumors are started by people looking to move the market so they can load or unload a position. Call it the corny coincidence.
David Weidner covers Wall Street for MarketWatch.
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