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Hab mir gerade nochmal die Q2-Guidance aus dem Q1-Call zu Gemüte geführt:
For Q2, we indicatively target constant currency revenue growth of mid-to-high teens, given the March through end of May period is probably the toughest period with respect to the prior-year benchmark.
Even against this heavily COVID -impacted periods, we expect very healthy growth of mid-to-high teens, given the repeat purchase model that we have. The half-term, i.e. in H2, we expect year-on-year constant currency growth of 20% in the buff again when also the comparative period is less COVID -affected. At current FX rates, this would translate into an absolute revenue in Q2 broadly in line with what we delivered for Q1. From a contribution margin perspective, we're also expecting Q2 at similar level as in Q1. With further food price inflation and seasonally higher packaging expenses, I expect it to be largely offset by further productivity improvements and selective price increases, which as they are flowing through.
Let me take the first one on active customers for Q2. This case for us is that this is sequentially touched on versus the number we just reported for Q1. So let's say round about -- and again, with the caveat we're still at the beginning, pretty much at the beginning of that quarter, round about 100 to 300 came lower than what we just came out with for Q1, i.e. if you plan with active customers for Q2 of round about $8.2 million to $8.4 million, that fore pack, that's all that we are targeting. Maybe to also touch on the other key KPIs then for Q2 when we're on the subject, that order rate probably stables sequentially versus Q1 and average order value, we would target a slight sequential uplift versus Q1 and added effectively the product of all of that would mean we're targeting roughly a similar revenue level for Q2 as we've just published for Q1 earlier.
Das sind ja genau die von dir angeführten Werte.
Ich bin aber nicht ganz so optimistisch wie du. Wenn der Umsatz in Q2 auf Q1-Niveau bleibt (+/- 2% in EUR) wäre ich schon super zufrieden. Es gibt zwar die von dir beschriebenen Effekte (AOV, Wechselkurs), ob diese aber ausreichen, um die Analysten-Schätzungen zu übertreffen, erscheint mir fraglich.
Ich denke schon, dass es im Juni einen etwas stärkeren Nachfragerückgang im Vergleich zu den Vormonaten gab (Webtraffic, Google-Trends), den man im Q1-Call noch nicht erwartet hatte.
Bleibt spannend!
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