Russia's move on Kharkiv has bogged down. But was it a failure?
Forcing Ukraine to whisk its best brigades out of fighting in Donetsk Oblast was exactly Russia’s hope when opening its new front north of Kharkiv, Lee says.
“It was more a question of whether, by moving all these units up there, does that put Ukraine in a more vulnerable position elsewhere?”
In this framing, the true metrics for success by which Moscow’s offensive can be measured is not in Kharkiv Oblast at all, but in Donetsk Oblast, where multiple Russian offensives launched in spring continue at high intensity.
Northwest of the occupied city of Avdiivka, Russian forces continue to expand on a large bulge around the village of Ocheretyne, where a localized breakthrough in April gave Russia the platform for some of its fastest territorial gains since summer 2022, bringing them within 10 kilometers of a key highway between the cities of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka.
Around 40 kilometers north of the Ocheretyne salient, Moscow’s offensive on the strategically crucial city of Chasiv Yar has also made progress, albeit still failing to enter the city proper or cross the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal.
“The risk when the Kharkiv offensive began was that Russia might get a foothold in Chasiv Yar itself,” said Lee.
“Once Russian forces get into cities, they become more difficult to hold, as opposed to when they are still crossing open ground.”
Russian forces have also advanced in other areas of the front, including in the city of Krasnohorivka west of Donetsk, and the village of Staromaiorske on the southern front line, the ruins of which were recaptured by Ukrainian forces in the summer counteroffensive last year.
But overall, says Lee, none of these gains amount to the kind of greater collapse in the Ukrainian defensive front that Moscow was likely hoping for.
“The worst-case scenario didn't happen,” he said. “It made sense for them to commit forces in other directions to try and capitalize on it (Ukrainian redeployments to Kharkiv). “They didn't really do that to the extent that I expected.”
https://kyivindependent.com/...russias-bogged-down-move-on-kharkiv-2/
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