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Die US-amerikanischen Auftragseingänge für langlebige Wirtschaftsgüter sind im Mai um 2,8 % zurückgegangen. Erwartet wurde ein Minus von 1,0 bis 2,0 %. Im Vormonat waren die Auftragseingänge bei den langlebigen Wirtschaftsgütern noch um 1,1 % gestiegen. Damit wurde der Vormonatswert von zuvor veröffentlichten +0,8 % nach oben revidiert.
Servus, J.B.
Optionen
WASHINGTON, D.C. (June 27, 2007) — The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 22, 2007. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 618.6, a decrease of 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 643.7 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4.5 percent compared with the previous week and was up 16.3 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.
The Refinance Index decreased 2.5 percent to 1731.6 from 1776.8 the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.9 percent to 428.9 from 450.9 one week earlier. The seasonally adjusted Conventional Index decreased 3.6 percent to 909.2 from 943 the previous week, and the seasonally adjusted Government Index decreased 7.4 percent to 134 from 144.7 the previous week.
The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 0.7 percent to 638.5 from 643. The four week moving average is up 0.1 percent to 444.5 from 444.0 for the Purchase Index, while this average is down 2.0 percent to 1780.1 from 1815.8 for the Refinance Index.
The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 38.7 percent of total applications from 38.0 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 20.4 from 20.3 percent of total applications from the previous week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remained unchanged at 6.60 percent, with points decreasing to 1.54 from 1.58 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 6.24 from 6.28 percent, with points decreasing to 1.41 from 1.42 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs decreased to 5.51 from 5.70 percent, with points decreasing to 1.14 from 1.16 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
Quelle: http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/55314.htm
Servus, J.B.
Optionen
Die US-amerikanischen Rohölvorräte (Crude Oil Inventories) sind in der vorangegangenen Woche um 1,2 Mio. Barrel gestiegen, nach zuvor +6,9 Mio. Barrel.
Die Benzinvorräte (Gasoline Inventories) haben sich in den USA im Wochenvergleich um 700.000 Barrel verringert, nach zuletzt einem Plus von 1,8 Mio. Barrel.
Die Vorräte an Destillaten (Distillate Inventories), die auch das Heizöl beinhalten, sind gegenüber der Vorwoche in den Vereinigten Staaten um 2,3 Mio. Barrel geschrumpft, nach zuvor +100.000 Barrel.
Servus, J.B.
Optionen
Chicago (BoerseGo.de) – Der Chicago Midwest- Index des verarbeitenden Gewerbes ist im Mai, laut Angaben der Chicagoer Federal Reserve Bank, leicht rückläufig gewesen. Der Index fiel um 0,2 Punkte von 104,8 im April auf 104,6 Punkte. Im Vergleich zum Vorjahr stieg der Index leicht um 0,3 Prozent. Ursache für den leichten Rückgang im Verhältnis zum Vormonat war die überwiegend verringerte Produktionstätigkeit der Unternehmen. Während der Autosektor leicht rückläufig war, legte die Produktion im Stahlsektor moderat zu. Auch der Bereich Chemie konnte zulegen, während die Produktion im Bereich Nahrung, Papier und Holz abnahm.
Quelle: www.boerse-go.de
Servus, J.B.
Optionen
Rückschlag bei den US-Auftragseingängen
Die US-Auftragseingänge langlebiger Güter sind im Mai um 2,8% gegenüber dem Vormonat gefallen. Hierfür war größenteils ein kräftiges Minus bei den extrem schwankungsanfälligen Flugzeugbestellungen verantwortlich. Aber auch in der Abgrenzung ohne den volatilen Transportsektor ergab sich ein Rückgang um 1,0%. Damit wurden die Markterwartungen von -1,0% für die Gesamt- und für +0,2% für die Kernrate enttäuscht. Und selbst unsere skeptischere Prognose von -1,2% bzw. -0,5% wurde noch unterboten. Deutlich abgemildert wird das Ergebnis aber durch eine Aufwärtsrevision des April-Zuwachses von +0,8% auf +1,1% für die gesamten Aufträge und sogar von +1,9% auf +2,5% für die Kernrate.
Grundsätzlich hatten wir mit eher schwachen Auftragsdaten im Mai gerechnet. Die Kombination aus der guten Stimmung im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe und zwei aufeinander folgenden kräftigen Anstiegen bei den Ordereingängen sprachen für eine Abwärtskorrektur im Aufwärtstrend. Dieses Bild wurde mit den heutigen Daten bestätigt. Die US-Industrie befindet sich in einer Erholungsphase, aber nicht in einem kräftigen Aufschwung.
Wenig erfreulich ist zudem der spürbare Rückgang um 3,0% bei den Kapitalgüteraufträgen ex Verteidigung und Luftfahrt, die häufig eine gute Indikation für die Entwicklung der Ausrüstungsinvestitionen darstellen. Nach zuvor zwei deutlichen Anstiegen kam auch hier die Korrektur zwar nicht überraschend, aber sie fiel doch recht stark aus. Gleichwohl ändert dies nichts daran, dass sie immer noch auf eine Erholung der Ausrüstungsinvestitionen im 2. Quartal hinweisen, zumal auch die Auslieferungen im April/Mai das Niveau des 1. Quartals deutlich übersteigen.
Insgesamt stützen die Auftragsdaten damit das Szenario einer Erholung der US-Industrie und der Ausrüstungsinvestitionen, einer Erholung, die sich allerdings in eher moderaten Bahnen bewegt.
Quelle: Postbank
Servus, J.B.
Optionen
Das US-amerikanische Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) ist in der endgültigen Fassung zum ersten Quartal um 0,7 % gestiegen. Damit wurde das vorläufige Wachstum von 0,6 % nach oben revidiert. Erwartet wurde eine Bestätigung der zuvor veröffentlichten 0,6 %. Im Quartal zuvor hatte das Wachstum bei 2,5 % gelegen.
Der Chain Deflator ist laut endgütliger Veröffentlichung um 4,2 % gestiegen. Die vorläufie Fassung hatte auf 4,0 % gelautet und wurde somit nach oben revidiert. Erwartet wurde indes eine Bestätigung der 4,0 %. Im Vorquartal war der Chain Deflator um 1,7 % gestiegen.
Servus, J.B.
Optionen
Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Tenth District manufacturing activity slowed markedly in June, but producers remained generally optimistic about future factory activity. Most price indexes in the survey declined, with input price pressures easing and limited pass-through.
The net percentage of firms reporting month-over-month increases in production in June was -2, down from 20 in May and 26 in April (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). Production decelerated at both durable- and non-durable-goods-producing plants. The year-over-year production index also edged down, while the future production index fell only slightly from 30 to 25.
The majority of other month-over-month indexes also decreased in May. The shipments index contracted from 18 to -1, its lowest level in over 5 years, and the new orders and employment indexes also eased. In contrast, the new orders for exports index held steady, and the order backlog index increased from 0 to 13. Both inventory indexes rose for the second straight month, which may have contributed to the decline in production.
Most other year-over-year indexes declined slightly in June, but still remained relatively solid. The shipments index dropped from 32 to 17, and the supplier delivery time and new orders for exports indexes also experienced a slight decrease. The capital expenditures index edged down for the second straight month, while the employment index held steady at 23. The new orders and order backlog indexes both posted solid gains after falling last month. The raw materials inventory index declined from 31 to 25, and the finished goods inventory index remained relatively unchanged.
Other future factory activity indexes were generally positive after some minor declines last month. The shipments index crept up from 25 to 27, and the new orders, order backlog, and employment indexes all posted slight gains. The capital expenditures index rebounded after three straight months of decline, while the future export orders index fell somewhat from 14 to 6. The raw materials inventory index remained relatively unchanged, while the finished goods inventory index fell from 6 to 1.
Price indexes in the survey generally moderated in June, after recording slight gains last month. The month-over-month raw materials price index edged down from 43 to 39, while the finished goods price index was unchanged. The year-over-year finished goods price index declined after reaching its highest level in survey history last month, and the raw materials price index decreased from 83 to 76. The future raw materials price index fell moderately this month after reaching historically high levels in May, while the future finished goods price index eased only slightly, suggesting some firms may be planning to pass past cost increases through to customers in the months ahead.
Quelle und mehr dazu: http://www.kc.frb.org/mfgsurv/2007Jun28mfg.htm
Servus, J.B.
Optionen
Agricultural
Prices
National Agricultural Statistics Service
USDA
Washington, D.C.
Released June 28, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of
Agriculture. For information on "Agricultural Prices" see
page 40, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.
June Farm Prices Received Index Increased 3 Points From Last Month
The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by
Farmers in June, at 141 percent, based on 1990-92=100, increased
3 points (2.2 percent) from May. The Crop Index is up 3 points
(2.1 percent) and the Livestock Index increased 2 points (1.5
percent). Producers received higher commodity prices for milk,
corn, lettuce, and soybeans. Lower prices were received for
cantaloups, cattle, tomatoes, and eggs. The overall index is also
affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year average mix of
commodities producers sell. Increased average marketings of wheat,
grapes, hay, and cantaloups offset decreased marketings of oranges,
strawberries, tomatoes, and sweet corn.
The preliminary All Farm Products Index is up 23 points (19
percent) from June 2006. The Food Commodities Index, at 141,
increased 2 points (1.4 percent) from last month and increased
22 points (18 percent) from June 2006.
Prices Paid Index Down 1 Point
The June Index of Prices Paid for Commodities and Services,
Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW) is 156 percent of the
1990-92 average. The index is down 1 point (0.6 percent) from May
but 7 points (4.7 percent) above June 2006. Lower prices in June
for complete feeds, feed concentrates, and feeder pigs offset
higher prices for feed grains and diesel fuel.
Index Summary Table
--------------------------------------------------
: 2006 : 2007
Index :--------------------------------------------------
1990-92=100 : May : Jun : May : Jun
--------------------------------------------------
:
Prices Received : 111 118 138 141
:
Prices Paid : 149 149 157 156
:
Ratio 1/ : 74 79 88 90
--------------------------------------------------
1/ Ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid by
farmers.
Prices Received by Farmers
The June All Farm Products Index is 141 percent of its 1990-92
base, up 2.2 percent from the May index and 19 percent above the
June 2006 index.
ALL CROPS: The June index is 146, up 2.1 percent from May and
15 percent above June 2006. Index increases for food grains,
oil-bearing crops, feed grains & hay, and food grains more than
offset the index decreases for commercial vegetables and fruits &
nuts.
Food Grains: The June index, at 175, is 10 percent above the
previous month and 31 percent above a year ago. The June all wheat
price, at $5.28 per bushel, is 40 cents higher than May and $1.30
above June 2006.
Feed Grains & Hay: The June index is 167, up 5.7 percent from last
month and 53 percent above a year ago. The corn price, at $3.77
per bushel, is up 28 cents from last month and $1.63 above
June 2006. The all hay price, at $131 per ton, is down $7.00 from
May but $22.00 higher than last June. Sorghum grain, at $6.60 per
cwt, increased 12 cents from May and $2.65 from June last year.
Oil-Bearing Crops: The June index, at 136, is up 6.3 percent from
May and 35 percent higher than June 2006. The soybean price, at
$7.57 per bushel, increased 44 cents from May and is $1.95 above
June 2006.
Cotton: The June index, at 74, is unchanged from May but
6.3 percent below last year. The June price, at 45.1 cents per
pound, is up 0.3 cent from the previous month but 2.3 cents below
last June.
Potatoes & Dry Beans: The June index, at 141, is up 0.7 percent
from last month and 1.4 percent above June 2006. The all potato
price, at $8.33 per cwt, is up 6 cents from May but down 8 cents
from last June. The all dry bean price, at $24.80 per cwt, is up
40 cents from the previous month and $5.80 above June 2006.
Fruits & Nuts: The June index, at 155, is down 1.9 percent from
May and 11 percent lower than a year ago. Price decreases for
peaches and strawberries more than offset price increases for
oranges, grapefruit, and lemons.
Commercial Vegetables: The June index, at 137, is down 9.9 percent
from last month but 3.8 percent above June 2006. Price decreases
during June for cantaloups, tomatoes, and onions more than offset
price increases for lettuce, cauliflower, and asparagus.
LIVESTOCK & PRODUCTS: The June index, at 136, is 1.5 percent above
last month and up 24 percent from June 2006. Compared with a year
ago, prices are higher for milk, broilers, cattle, eggs, and
turkeys. The prices for hogs and calves are down from last year.
Meat Animals: The June index, at 121, is down 2.4 percent from
last month but 4.3 percent higher than last year. The June hog
price, at $52.50 per cwt, is down 50 cents from May and $1.30 lower
than a year ago. The June beef cattle price of $89.70 per cwt is
down $3.50 from last month but $5.70 higher than June 2006.
Dairy Products: The June index, at 153, is up 11 percent from a
month ago and 68 percent higher than June last year. The June all
milk price of $20.00 per cwt is up $2.00 from last month and up
$8.10 from June 2006. The fluid grade milk price is up $2.00 and
the manufacturing grade milk price is up $2.10 from the previous
month.
Poultry & Eggs: The June index, at 151, is up 0.7 percent from May
and 30 percent above a year ago. The June market egg price, at
49.7 cents per dozen, decreased 11.8 cents from May but is
12.9 cents above June 2006. The June broiler price, at 52.0 cents
per pound, is up 1.0 cent from May and 13.0 cents above a year ago.
The June turkey price, at 52.0 cents per pound, is up 3.7 cents
from the previous month and up 6.6 cents from a year earlier.
Quelle und mehr dazu: http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/agpr0607.txt
Servus, J.B.
Optionen
US-BIP nur minimal nach oben revidiert
Damit wurde das bisherige Ergebnis von +0,6% minimal nach oben korrigiert. Dies ändert aber nichts an der Tatsache, dass das Wachstum im Auftaktquartal 2007 das schwächste seit dem 4. Quartal 2002 war.
Die kleine Aufwärtsrevision war ausschließlich dem Außenbeitrag zu verdanken, der nicht ganz so schlecht ausfiel wie zuvor gemeldet. Er drückte das Wachstum "nur" um 1,7 statt um 1,9 Prozentpunkte. Dem standen leichte Abwärtsrevisionen beim Privaten Verbrauch (+4,2% statt +4,4%) und bei den Bruttoanlageinvestitionen (-9,6% statt -9,3%) gegenüber, wobei dieses Minus ausschließlich aus den Wohnungsbauinvestitionen resultierte.
Insgesamt ändert die heutige Revision der BIP-Daten am Gesamtbild der US-Konjunktur überhaupt nichts. Wir gehen unverändert davon aus, dass die US-Wirtschaft im 1. Quartal den Tiefpunkt der jüngsten konjunkturellen Delle gesehen hat. Bereits für das laufende Quartal rechnen wir mit einer spürbaren Wachstumsbelebung und für das 2. Halbjahr mit einer Zunahme des BIP etwa in Höhe des Potenzialwachstums.
Leicht negativ ist die Aufwärtsrevision der PCE-Kernrate von 2,2% auf 2,4% zu werten. Die Preisentwicklung für die Privaten Konsumausgaben ohne Energie und Nahrungsmittel war damit im 1. Quartal etwas ungünstiger als bislang vermutet. Durch die Annualisierung der Quartalsrate wird das Ausmaß der Aufwärtsrevision aber optisch überhöht. Faktisch ist die Aufwärtsrevision vernachlässigbar gering. Auf die Zinsentscheidung der US-Notenbank heute Abend bzw. auf den Wortlaut des begleitenden Pressestatements wird sie keinen Einfluss haben.
Quelle: Postbank
Servus, J.B.
Optionen
Der endgültige Verbraucherstimmungsindex der Uni Michigan notiert im Juni bei 85,3 nach 83,7 in der vorläufigen Fassung. Es war erwartet worden, dass der Index im Bereich von 83,7 bis 84,2 und damit leicht höher als vorab gemeldet veröffentlicht wird. Im Monat zuvor hatte der Index bei 88,3 notiert.
Servus, J.B.
Optionen
June 2007 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®
PMI at 56%
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of June 2007.
New Orders, Production and Employment Growing
Inventories Contracting
Deliveries Faster
(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in June for the fifth consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 68th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "Following a weak first quarter, the manufacturing sector rebounded in a strong fashion during the second quarter. In June, manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace since April 2006 when the PMI Index registered 56.9. This performance appears sustainable in the third quarter due to the current strength in New Orders and Production."
TOP PERFORMING INDUSTRIES
The 12 industries reporting growth in June — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Textile Mills; and Machinery.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
- "Business remains brisk with isolated areas of softness." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
- "Things are picking up." (Primary Metals)
- "Busy now but still down approximately 13 percent from this time last year." (Fabricated Metal Products)
- "Exchange rate and some raw material increases have had a negative impact on our purchased components." (Transportation Equipment)
- "Petroleum-based material prices have begun to escalate at a faster pace." (Paper Products)
| MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE JUNE 2007 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Index | Series Index June | Series Index May | Percentage Point Change | Direction | Rate of Change | Trend* (Months) |
| PMI | 56.0 | 55.0 | +1.0 | Growing | Faster | 5 |
| New Orders | 60.3 | 59.6 | +0.7 | Growing | Faster | 7 |
| Production | 62.9 | 58.3 | +4.6 | Growing | Faster | 5 |
| Employment | 51.1 | 51.9 | -0.8 | Growing | Slower | 3 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 49.7 | 50.3 | -0.6 | Faster | From Slowing | 1 |
| Inventories | 45.3 | 46.1 | -0.8 | Contracting | Faster | 11 |
| Customers' Inventories | 47.0 | 48.0 | -1.0 | Too Low | Faster | 4 |
| Prices | 68.0 | 71.0 | -3.0 | Increasing | Slower | 6 |
| Backlog of Orders | 53.5 | 52.5 | +1.0 | Growing | Faster | 3 |
| Exports | 56.0 | 59.0 | -3.0 | Growing | Slower | 55 |
| Imports | 54.5 | 57.5 | -3.0 | Growing | Slower | 66 |
| OVERALL ECONOMY | Growing | Faster | 68 | |||
| Manufacturing Sector | Growing | Faster | 5 | |||
*Number of months moving in current direction
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum* (7); Chemicals (3); Copper Based Products (3); Gasoline (3); Natural Gas (5); Polypropylene Resins; Soybean Oil; Stainless Sheet Steel; Stainless Steel (6); and Steel (4).
Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum* is the only commodity reported down in price.
Commodities in Short Supply
No commodities are reported in short supply.
* Reported as both up and down in price.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
JUNE 2007 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
PMI
Manufacturing growth accelerated in June as the PMI registered 56 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point when compared to May's reading of 55 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A PMI in excess of 41.9 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates that both the overall economy and the manufacturing sector are growing. "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the PMI average for January through June (53 percent) corresponds to a 3.4 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) annually. In addition, if the PMI for June (56 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 4.4 percent increase in real GDP annually."
THE LAST 12 MONTHS
| Month | PMI | Month | PMI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2007 | 56.0 | Dec 2006 | 51.4 | |
| May 2007 | 55.0 | Nov 2006 | 49.9 | |
| Apr 2007 | 54.7 | Oct 2006 | 51.5 | |
| Mar 2007 | 50.9 | Sep 2006 | 52.7 | |
| Feb 2007 | 52.3 | Aug 2006 | 54.3 | |
| Jan 2007 | 49.3 | Jul 2006 | 54.4 | |
| Average for 12 months – 52.7 High – 56.0 Low – 49.3 | ||||
New Orders
ISM's New Orders Index rose to 60.3 percent in June. The index is 0.7 percentage point higher than the 59.6 percent reported in May. A New Orders Index above 49.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars). Eleven industries reported increases during June: Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; and Machinery.
| New Orders | % Better | % Same | % Worse | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2007 | 37 | 48 | 15 | +22 | 60.3 |
| May 2007 | 33 | 54 | 13 | +20 | 59.6 |
| Apr 2007 | 40 | 45 | 15 | +25 | 58.5 |
| Mar 2007 | 30 | 51 | 19 | +11 | 51.6 |
Production
ISM's Production Index registered 62.9 percent in June, which is 4.6 percentage points higher than the 58.3 percent reported in May. June is the fifth consecutive month of production growth for manufacturers. An index above 49.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures. Of the industries reporting in June, 12 registered growth: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Furniture & Related Products.
Production | % Better | % Same | % Worse | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2007 | 35 | 55 | 10 | +25 | 62.9 |
| May 2007 | 30 | 59 | 11 | +19 | 58.3 |
| Apr 2007 | 35 | 52 | 13 | +22 | 57.3 |
| Mar 2007 | 29 | 53 | 18 | +11 | 53.0 |
Employment
ISM's Employment Index registered 51.1 percent in June, which is a decrease of 0.8 percentage point when compared to May's reading of 51.9 percent. An Employment Index above 49.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment. The five industries reporting growth in employment during June are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Primary Metals.
Employment | % Higher | % Same | % Lower | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2007 | 20 | 66 | 14 | +6 | 51.1 |
| May 2007 | 22 | 66 | 12 | +10 | 51.9 |
| Apr 2007 | 23 | 64 | 13 | +10 | 53.1 |
| Mar 2007 | 14 | 72 | 14 | 0 | 48.7 |
Supplier Deliveries
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was faster in June ending 47 consecutive months of slower deliveries. ISM's Supplier Deliveries Index registered 49.7 percent in June, a 0.6 percentage point decrease when compared to May's reading of 50.3 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries. The five industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in June are: Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Primary Metals.
| Supplier Deliveries | % Slower | % Same | % Faster | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2007 | 7 | 87 | 6 | +1 | 49.7 |
| May 2007 | 5 | 93 | 2 | +3 | 50.3 |
| Apr 2007 | 7 | 87 | 6 | +1 | 50.2 |
| Mar 2007 | 5 | 93 | 2 | +3 | 51.3 |
Inventories
Manufacturers' inventories registered 45.3 percent in June, a 0.8 percentage point decrease when compared to May's reading of 46.1 percent. This is the 11th consecutive month of inventory liquidation. An Inventories Index greater than 42.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars). The four industries reporting higher inventories in June are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Transportation Equipment; and Furniture & Related Products.
Inventories | % Higher | % Same | % Lower | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2007 | 13 | 64 | 23 | -10 | 45.3 |
| May 2007 | 15 | 62 | 23 | -8 | 46.1 |
| Apr 2007 | 16 | 62 | 22 | -6 | 46.3 |
| Mar 2007 | 17 | 64 | 19 | -2 | 47.5 |
Customers' Inventories*
The ISM Customers' Inventories Index registered 47 percent in June, which is 1 percentage point lower than the 48 percent reported in May. The index indicates that respondents believe their customers have less than sufficient inventories on hand (inventories are too low) at this time. This is the fourth consecutive month in which manufacturers have reported their customers' inventories to be too low. Four industries reported higher customers' inventories during June: Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.
| Customers' Inventories | % Reporting | %Too High | %About Right | %Too Low | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2007 | 67 | 12 | 70 | 18 | -6 | 47.0 |
| May 2007 | 76 | 9 | 78 | 13 | -4 | 48.0 |
| Apr 2007 | 77 | 13 | 68 | 19 | -6 | 47.0 |
| Mar 2007 | 75 | 11 | 74 | 15 | -4 | 48.0 |
Prices*
In June, the ISM Prices Index registered 68 percent, indicating manufacturers are paying higher prices on average when compared to May. While 42 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices and 6 percent reported paying lower prices, 52 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as the preceding month. A Prices Index above 47.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices. In June, 14 industries reported paying higher prices: Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Textile Mills; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.
Prices | % Higher | % Same | % Lower | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2007 | 42 | 52 | 6 | +36 | 68.0 |
| May 2007 | 45 | 52 | 3 | +42 | 71.0 |
| Apr 2007 | 50 | 46 | 4 | +46 | 73.0 |
| Mar 2007 | 36 | 59 | 5 | +31 | 65.5 |
Backlog of Orders*
ISM's Backlog of Orders Index registered 53.5 percent in June, 1 percentage point higher than the 52.5 percent reported in May. Of the 86 percent of respondents who reported their backlog of orders, 23 percent reported greater backlogs, 16 percent reported smaller backlogs, and 61 percent reported no change from May. The eight industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in June are: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.
| Backlog of Orders | % Reporting | % Greater | % Same | % Less | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2007 | 86 | 23 | 61 | 16 | +7 | 53.5 |
| May 2007 | 87 | 22 | 61 | 17 | +5 | 52.5 |
| Apr 2007 | 85 | 26 | 57 | 17 | +9 | 54.5 |
| Mar 2007 | 89 | 20 | 54 | 26 | -6 | 47.0 |
New Export Orders*
ISM's New Export Orders Index registered 56 percent in June, a decrease of 3 percentage points when compared to May's index of 59 percent. This is the 55th consecutive month of growth in export orders. The seven industries reporting growth in new export orders in June are: Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment.
| New Export Orders | % Reporting | % Higher | % Same | % Lower | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2007 | 78 | 18 | 76 | 6 | +12 | 56.0 |
| May 2007 | 78 | 24 | 70 | 6 | +18 | 59.0 |
| Apr 2007 | 82 | 20 | 74 | 6 | +14 | 57.0 |
| Mar 2007 | 77 | 18 | 75 | 7 | +11 | 55.5 |
Imports*
Imports of materials by manufacturers grew during June as the Imports Index registered 54.5 percent, a decrease of 3 percentage points when compared to May. This is the 66th consecutive month of growth in import orders. The 10 industries reporting growth in import activity for June are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products.
Imports | % Reporting | % Higher | % Same | % Lower | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2007 | 85 | 17 | 75 | 8 | +9 | 54.5 |
| May 2007 | 82 | 20 | 75 | 5 | +15 | 57.5 |
| Apr 2007 | 84 | 23 | 70 | 7 | +16 | 58.0 |
| Mar 2007 | 82 | 24 | 67 | 9 | +15 | 57.5 |
* The Backlog of Orders, Prices, Customers' Inventories, Imports and New Export Orders Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.
Buying Policy
Average commitment leadtime for Capital Expenditures decreased 4 days to 115 days. Average leadtime for Production Materials decreased 1 day to 45 days. Average leadtime for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies increased 1 day to 23 days.
| Percent Reporting | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital Expenditures | Hand- to- Mouth | 30 Days | 60 Days | 90 Days | 6 Months | 1 Year+ | Average Days |
| Jun 2007 | 26 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 23 | 13 | 115 |
| May 2007 | 20 | 9 | 12 | 20 | 28 | 11 | 119 |
| Apr 2007 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 24 | 22 | 12 | 115 |
| Mar 2007 | 19 | 10 | 17 | 22 | 22 | 10 | 110 |
Production Materials | Hand- to- Mouth | 30 Days | 60 Days | 90 Days | 6 Months | 1 Year+ | Average Days |
| Jun 2007 | 19 | 43 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 45 |
| May 2007 | 20 | 41 | 24 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 46 |
| Apr 2007 | 18 | 45 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 46 |
| Mar 2007 | 21 | 35 | 29 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 45 |
MRO Supplies | Hand- to- Mouth | 30 Days | 60 Days | 90 Days | 6 Months | 1 Year+ | Average Days |
| Jun 2007 | 50 | 36 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 23 |
| May 2007 | 51 | 37 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22 |
| Apr 2007 | 52 | 33 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 25 |
| Mar 2007 | 52 | 34 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22 |
About this Report
The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply managers based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.
Quelle: http://www.ism.ws/about/MediaRoom/...leasedetail.cfm?ItemNumber=16834
Servus, J.B.
Optionen
New York (BoerseGo.de) - In den USA sind die Filialumsätze in der Woche zum 30. Juni gegenüber dem Vergleichszeitraum des Vorjahres um 2,5 Prozent gestiegen. Dies meldete heute das International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC). Gegenüber der Vorwoche ist ein Anstieg von 0,1 Prozent zu registrieren.
Quelle: http://www.godmode-trader.de/news/?ida=647739&idc=65
Servus, J.B.
Laut ICSC-Chefökonom Mike Niemira ist der Trend im Bereich der Konsumausgaben als schleppend, wechselhaft und unsicher zu bezeichnen. Immer mehr Einzelhändler scheinen jene Sichtweise zu teilen. Wir glauben, dass sich vor allem seit Februar ein Trend zur Verlangsamung etablierte, führte Niemira weiter aus.
Das ICSC rechnet für Juni gegenüber dem Vergleichszeitraum des Vorjahres mit einem moderaten Filialerlöswachstum von 1,5-2 Prozent. Damit wird die frühere Prognose über ein Plus von 2 Prozent nach unten angepasst.
Optionen
Der US-amerikanische Index zu den anstehenden Hausverkäufen ist im Mai um 3,5 % auf 97,7 zurückgegangen. Erwartet wurde hingegen ein Anstieg um 0,3 %. Im Monat zuvor waren anstehenden Hausverkäufe bereits um 3,4 % zurückgegangen, damit wurde der zuvor veröffentlichte Rückgang um 3,2 % weiter nach unten revidiert.
Servus, J.B.
